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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 171747
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
147 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS
THE REGION. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
IN FROM SE ONTARIO THIS MORNING...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. A MID
LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IN THE NW FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS UPSTATE NY ON THE
LATEST RUC40 WITH THE SATELLITE VIS/IR PICTURE OVERLAYED. SOME
CIRRUS IS PERSISTENT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT CAPITAL
REGION...WITH SCT STRATOCUMULUS FROM ALY NORTH AND WEST. THE
SKYCOVER HAS BEEN RETOOLED TO SAY PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING TO
EARLY PM...BEFORE MAINLY MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE VALLEYS.
TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK WITH SEASONABLE HIGHS MID 60S TO L70S IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U50S TO M60S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE WINDS WILL
GET LIGHTER IN THE PM WITH THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING IN.

THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR ALONG WITH
THOSE LIGHT WINDS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO COMMENCE. AT THIS
TIME...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS TO WITHHOLD THE
MENTION OF HEADLINES. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE CLOSE AS LATER SHIFTS
WILL TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AND ADJUST ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ITS INFLUENCE SHOULD KEEP OUR
SPRINGLIKE WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. SOME MARINE LAYER CLOUDS ALONG WITH
HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY ENCROACH DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS OF SATURDAY. GIVEN H850 TEMPS CLIMBING SEVERAL DEGREES AND
WE EFFECTIVELY MIX TO OR ABOVE THIS LAYER...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD
ATTAIN MIDDLE 70S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S FOR THE TERRAIN.

MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE NATION WILL BEGIN TO TRACK
CLOSER TO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE HIGH TRACKS
FURTHER OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS
HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR FURTHER ENTRAINMENT OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND
UPSTREAM ENVIRONMENT TO WARRANT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASING INTO SUNDAY. THETA-E ADVECTION IS
GRADUAL AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE
MINIMAL TO WITHHOLD THE MENTION OF THUNDER FROM THE
GRIDS/FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY
MORNING WILL BE RATHER MILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN BOTH CLOUD
COVER AND MOISTURE ENTRAINMENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THESE CLOUDS
WILL ALSO INHIBIT FULL INSOLATION ON SUNDAY TO KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 70F FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS AND 60S ELSEWHERE.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE BEST THETA-E ADVECTION WILL TRACK EAST-
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS SHOULD MARK
A FURTHER REDUCTION IN POPS/WX BUT KEEP CONSIDERABLE LOWER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE REGION AS HEIGHTS RISE IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE /TRAPPING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EVEN MORE MILD WITH VALUES
GENERALLY INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

AT 500 HPA...A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND OHIO
VALLEY. OUR REGION WILL ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS RIDGE AT 500
HPA. WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOK TO MOVE AROUND THE RIDGE DURING THE WEEK.
AT THE SFC...A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO APPROACH OUR
AREA...AND PERHAPS STALL NEARBY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW...WILL GO WITH CHC POPS
FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT...IT/S DIFFICULT TO TIME
ANY PARTICULAR PERIOD THAT COULD SEE MORE SHRA/TSRA THAN OTHERS...AS
THE MODELS DON/T AGREE ON MUCH OF THE DETAILS JUST YET.  WITH ENOUGH
INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE...WILL INCLUDE THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST AS WELL...AS FORECASTED LI VALUES LOOK TO BE NEGATIVE FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

850 HPA TEMPS LOOK TO WARM DURING THE WEEK AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THE
MODELS DON/T AGREE ON THE EXACT EXTENT OF THE WARMING...AND ANY
CLOUDS/PRECIP COULD ULTIMATELY DETERMINE JUST HOW WARM IT GETS.
STILL...DETERMINISTIC MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPS TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE WEEK...WITH MAX TEMP IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S EACH DAY...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

THE SCT-BKN CIRRUS AND FEW-SCT CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS IN. SOME LINGERING CIRRUS MAY
INCREASE AGAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TOMORROW MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KTS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS. THE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS EARLY THIS EVENING...AND BECOME CALM
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LATE TOMORROW MORNING
AT 5 KTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SAT PM-SUN MORNING...VFR...NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY...VFR...ISOLD-SCT -SHRAS.
MON...VFR. SLIGHT CHC/CHC -SHRAS/-TSRAS.
TUE-WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRAS/-TSRAS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PER COORDINATION WITH OUR STATE PARTNERS...ALL AREAS HAVE REACHED
GREEN UP.

THE WIND WILL BE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO
20 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE TOWARD SUNSET WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 PERCENT BY
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN RECOVER TO AT OR GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT
TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FLOWS
ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE. THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASES DURING SUNDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM