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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 160111
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
915 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 645 PM EDT...A BEAUTIFUL EVENING ACROSS THE REGION...ALBEIT A
BIT BREEZY IN SPOTS (MAINLY MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION).
VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATED THAT ANY CU THAT FORMED EARLIER HAVE
PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED AND WE WERE LEFT WITH ONLY A FEW WISPS OF
THIN CIRRUS. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE THE
HIGHEST TERRAIN...LOWER TO MID 70S MOST VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT UPPER
70S MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD.

FOR THIS UPDATE ONLY VERY MINOR RE-TOOLING OF THE HOURLY
GRIDS...LOWERING THE CLOUD FIELD EVEN MORE. SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES
INDICATE THICKER HIGH CLOUDS ATTEMPTING TO MOVE INTO OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATER THIS EVENING. IT WILL REMAIN DRY.

SO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...LOOK FOR LOTS OF
SUNSHINE...AND BY 900 PM...TEMPERATURES COOLING TO AROUND 60 IN THE
COOLEST PLACES TO AROUND 70 MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE BREEZE WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS WELL.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM START TO WORK
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA (FA) FROM WEST TO EAST. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
COOL NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON SUNDAY A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST FROM
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY CONVECTION AS IT MOVES FROM WESTERN NY AROUND MID
DAY TO SE NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND BY ERLY EVENING. WHILE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE FA BY AFT...THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A
DIFFICULT CALL DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. PLENTY OF HELICITY
IS IN PLACE WITH 0-3KM HELICITY VALUES BTWN 150 AND 250
M2/S2...BUT SB CAPES ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG AT BEST...SHOWALTER
INDICES REMAIN POSITIVE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNIMPRESSIVE
RANGING FROM 5.5 TO 6.25 C/KM TOWARD EVENING. PWATS ALSO NOT VARY
HIGH BRIEFLY ABOVE 1.5 SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN DROPPING FROM NW TO
SE BY EVENING IN WAKE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. WILL CALL FOR
SHOWERS WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT HIGHS ON
SUNDAY TO RANGE FROM MID 60S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST.

SUNDAY NIGHT...ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH LESS OF A CHANCE DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60.

MON-MON NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE IS STILL UNCLEAR...ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. SB CAPES ARE A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN SUNDAY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL AT 6-6.25 C/KM
WITH GENERALLY 40-50 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR FROM THE WEST.
THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LOW WITH LACK INSTABILITY.
EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 60S
SOUTHEAST.

TUESDAY...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A CHANCE OS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
FA AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON THE FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH
AND TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ALONG IT. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO MID TO UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A RETURN OF DRIER
WEATHER BEFORE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A POTENTIAL NEXT
ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FROM A
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY BE SHIFTING OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WEAK RIDGING
BUILDING IN BEHIND. THERE MAY STILL BE ENOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE IN
PLACE TUESDAY NIGHT TO SPAWN A COUPLE OF SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS BUT THESE SHOWERS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE OVERALL
TREND WILL BE FOR CLEARING SKIES AS WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR IN
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH.

LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT...AND A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP
WILL FINALLY PROVIDE A SEVERAL DAY STRETCH OF FAIR AND DRY WEATHER
AFTER THE RECENT SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORIGINATING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
TRACK EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE START OF NEXT
WEEKEND...BRINGING THE NEXT POTENTIAL ROUND OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
AREA...ALBEIT MUCH LESS THAN RECENT WEEKS.

TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS
THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ALLOWING A RETURN OF NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 80 WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
RANGING FROM THE MID 40S IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO THE UPPER 50S
IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ASIDE FROM A GUSTY BREEZE AT TIMES AT KALB THROUGH ABOUT 02Z...NO
AVIATION WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AT THE
TAF SITES WITH VFR PREVAILING ALONG WITH NEARLY A CLOUDLESS SKY AS
WELL AS UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY.

OVERNIGHT...AS TEMPERATURES DROP...THEY LOOK TO COME CLOSE TO BUT
NOT QUITE REACHING THE CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WHICH LOOKS TO HOLD IN
THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH. THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE AT
KGFL...WHERE THE GROUND IS WET AND LOCAL EFFECTS COULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME SHALLOW BUT LOCALLY DENSE FOG. MITIGATING THE FORMATION
OF RADIATIONAL FOG HOWEVER IS A COMBINATION OF THE SHORT NIGHT...A
PERSISTENT BREEZE...AN ANTICIPATED INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...AND THE FACT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE
SOUTH.

FOR NOW...JUST USED VCFG BETWEEN 06Z-12Z AT KGFL AND ACTUALLY USED
VCFG AT KPOU/KPSF 08Z-12Z. SO WE FIGURE THE ODDS ARE AROUND 50
PERCENT FOR IFR FOG TO FORM...SO CONFIDENCE NOT THERE TO INCLUDE IT
IN ANY TAFS. AS USUAL...PLEASE CHECK BACK LATER FOR ANY POSSIBLE
UPDATES TO OUR THINKING.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
AREA AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
INCREASES BY MIDDAY AT ALL OF OUR TAF SITES EXCEPT KPOU...WHERE THE
CHANCES THERE INCREASES DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT IS
UNCLEAR WHERE THE BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE SO NOW JUST WENT WITH
VCSH AND KEEP CONDITIONS AT VFR.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL
DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.

THE WIND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL OUR TAFS
LATER ON THIS EVENING. THE WIND WILL BECOME SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
5-10KTS LATER ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA IN THE EVNG.
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA. SLIGHT CHC -TSRA. MAINLY IN THE
AFTN/EVNG.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA. SLIGHT CHC -TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-THU...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN SINCE LATE MAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY.

THE RH TRENDS WILL FAVOR DEW FORMATION THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS THE HOUSATONIC BASIN IN NW
CT. AND AT UTICA ON THE MOHAWK.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME WET WEATHER WILL
RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AVERAGE BASIN TOTAL RAINFALL BY MONDAY
MORNING WILL RANGE FROM ONLY AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER THE SRN
TIER OF THE HSA TO A HALF AN INCH OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN PORTIONS.
THE BULK OF THE PCPN IS EXPECTED TO FALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING. QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER TUESDAY INTO THE MID WEEK
ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE VERY WET
WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...11/WASULA
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...11/HWJIV