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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 142055
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
358 PM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST TO OUR SOUTH EARLY THIS EVENING THEN
QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A LIKELY ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
EVEN A STRAY THUNDERSTORM. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL INTERCEPT THE WARM
AIR BEFORE IT REACHES OUR REGION TOMORROW NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 345 PM EDT...STILL FOLLOWING SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SPRINKLES
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE GREATER CAPITAL DISTRICT...ASSOCIATED WITH A
FAIRLY DISTINCT COLD POOL ALOFT...PRODUCING MINOR INSTABILITY
CLOUDS.

AS THIS COLD POOL LIFTS OUT AND THE SUN GOES DOWN...ALL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD POOL WILL DISSIPATE. A PATCH OF CIRRUS
WILL MOVE OFF FROM SOUTHEAST ZONES. ASSUMING A THICKER BATCH OF
CIRRUS CLOUDS IN WESTERN NY DOES NOT MOVE INTO WELL AFTER
SUNSET...WE BELIEVE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY.

FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO TOP
OUT ONLY FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...55 TO 60 VALLEY LOCATIONS. SUNSHINE WILL BE MIXED WITH
CLOUDS...MORE CLOUDS NORTH AND EAST ALONG WITH THOSE SCATTERED
SPRINKLES (NON MEASURABLE LIGHT SHOWERS).

TONIGHT...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY CREST TO OUR SOUTH
THIS EVENING...BEFORE SLIDING EAST OFF OUR REGION TONIGHT. ASSUMING
ANOTHER BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS REMAINS TO OUR WEST (AND RIGHT NOW WE
BELIEVE THEY WILL)...THE SKY WILL CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY
MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. WITH ANY WIND BECOMING
CALM...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SET THE STAGE FOR YET ANOTHER FROSTY
NIGHT. WENT WITH THE COLDER SET OF GUIDANCE (MET NOS) AND IN SOME
CASES...EVEN A TAD LOWER SINCE TEMPERATURES FOR THE THIRD DAY IN A
ROW END UP COOLER THAN WE EXPECTED.

THIS PROMPTED US TO ISSUE A FREEZING WARNING FOR OUR LAKE GEORGE
SARATOGA REGION AS WELL AS BENNINGTON COUNTY. ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
OUR FORECAST AREA...WE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY. IN OUR SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND WINDHAM COUNTY...SINCE THE GROWING SEASON HAS
OFFICIALLY NOT BEGUN...WE DID NOT ISSUE ANY AGRICULTURAL
HEADLINES.

LOOK FOR OVER OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP TO AROUND 30 IN THE FREEZE WARNING
AREAS (AS WELL AS THE ADIRONDACKS AND WINDHAM COUNTY)...TO THE MID
30S MOST OTHER AREAS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
ON
WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY...WORKING INTO WESTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN PA DURING THE
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP NICELY ALOFT...RISING TO AROUND
+10C BY LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...AS IS OFTEN THE CASE...THE
COMBINATION OF RAIN SHOWERS (ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT)
COOLING THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE GROUND AND THE USUAL LOCAL EFFECT WITH
COOL AIR REMAINING TRAPPED IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND EVEN MOHAWK VALLEYS
...WE NOW DON/T THINK IT WILL WARM UP ALL THAT MUCH AT ALL TOMORROW.
WE WENT WITH THE LOW END OF THE GUIDANCE...AND THEN SOME...WHICH
WOULD STILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REACH 60-65 ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES MIGHT NOT EVEN GET THIS
WARM...SHOULD THE SHOWERS BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE. HOWEVER...MOST OF
THE GOOD FORCING LOOKS TO PUSH WELL NORTH.

WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...THERE LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE
INSTABILITY ALOFT. THE SHOWALTER VALUES OFF THE 12Z NAM INDICATED
VALUES OF -4 (WHICH IS THE INSTABILITY INDUCES LIFTED FROM THE H850
MB) LEVEL WHILE THERE WAS NO INSTABILITY FORECASTED FROM THE
SURFACE. THE 18Z NAM WAS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THOSE VALUES FROM THE
12Z...WITH A MAX SHOWALTER OF -3C IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES...AND THE 0
LINE JUST TO THE NORTH OF ALBANY. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE MODEST
AROUND 5.5-6.0 C/KM.

WHILE NOT OVERLY CONCERN WITH CONVECTION POTENTIAL IN OUR AREA...WE
HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT FORECASTERS CAN RE-EXAMINE ALL
THE LATEST CONVECTION POTENTIAL PARAMETERS AND UPDATE THE CONVECTION
EITHER WAY. FOR NOW...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE. AGAIN...THE BEST FORCING
LOOKS TO LIFT NORTHWARD...ONE OF THE ARGUMENTS ABOUT GOING TOO HIGH
ON THUNDERSTORM POPS (AS WELL AS THE COOL AIR NEAR THE GROUND).

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RETREATING HIGH PRESSURE AND FAST
MOVING STORM SYSTEM UP IN CANADA...WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS
FROM THE SSE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR THE WIND TO INCREASE
10 TO 20 MPH...GUSTING TO 30 MPH OR EVEN A LITTLE BETTER AT
TIMES...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...MOHAWK VALLEY INTO
THE CAPITAL REGION.


BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE WARM WILL GET CLOSEST TO THE REGION...BUT
WILL LIKELY INTERCEPTED BY A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH BECOMES
OCCLUDED IN THE PROCESS. BOTH FRONT WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST
LATER AT NIGHT. THE WIND WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH TO WEST AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS TO TUESDAY...DIMINISHING A LITTLE OVERNIGHT IN THE 5
TO 15 MPH. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY EXIT OVERNIGHT. THE SKY
SHOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY CLEAR. LOOK FOR LOWS GENERALLY 45 TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES...40-45 IN THE ADIRONDACKS.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN START TO
RIDGE BACK ACROSS FORECAST AREAS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IT
LOOKS MAINLY DRY THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE AIR COMING OUT OF CANADA
WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY COOL THIS GO ROUND...WITH H850 TEMPERATURES
ONLY COOLING TO ABOUT +2C TO +4C. WITH GOOD MIXING ON THURSDAY AND A
GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REACH BACK INTO
THE 70S...EXCEPT MID 60S ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS. IT WILL BE BREEZY
ONCE AGAIN THOUGH...THOSE WESTERLY WINDS WILL CRANK BACK UP TO 15 TO
25 MPH...GUSTING TO PERHAPS 35 MPH OR EVEN 40 MPH ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND MAYBE THE MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE CAPITAL REGION.

THE ONE FLY IN OINTMENT FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MIGHT BE A
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH WORKING THROUGH OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHICH
MIGHT TRIGGER A RENEGADE SHOWER OR TWO. FOR NOW...INTRODUCED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE STILL BE BUILDING IN FROM JAMES BAY
OF CANADA. IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER FINE SPRING DAY FILLED WITH SUNSHINE
AND A NORTHWEST BREEZE BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TOP OUT AROUND 70 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...60S HIGHER TERRAIN.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN STARTING OUT WITH A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES WITH RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
AND IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE EAST COAST AND NORTHEAST BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...WILL HAVE RIDGING OVER EASTERN CANADA
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD AND A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC FROM A LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS.
INDICATIONS ARE THE RIDGING WITH HOLD OUT KEEPING THE REGION DRY
WELL INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AS A
WARM FRONT AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE CHANCES FOR
FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM BY TUESDAY.

LOOKING AT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...18Z/WEDNESDAY.

HEIGHTS HAVE BEGUN TO RISE...HOWEVER STILL HAVE PIECES OF ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE EXITING DEEP TROUGH...SO CLOUDS DEVELOPED ACROSS
MAINLY THE NORTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE LATER IN THE DAY WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN. EXPECTING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL BE ON INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS OVERRUNNING MOISTURE/WARM FRONT
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM TONIGHT. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND WILL BECOME GUSTY WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KNOTS OR BETTER ESPECIALLY AT KALB.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. -SHRA LIKELY IN THE EVENING.
THU-SAT...VFR. NO SIG WX.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
IT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR COOL AND CALM TONIGHT WITH A FULL RECOVERY
EXPECTED AS RH VALUES APPROACH 100 PERCENT. DEW OR EVEN FROST CAN BE
EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES IT WILL CLOUD OVER...TURN
BREEZY AND SHOWERS ARE LIKELY BY AFTERNOON. RH VALUES SHOULD ONLY
DROP TO THE MODERATE RANGE 35-50 PERCENT...THEN WHEN SHOWERS
HIT...RH VALUES COULD RAMP UP TO 60 PERCENT OR HIGHER. A SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 25 MPH.

SHOWERS WILL EXIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SOUTH WIND WILL TURN WESTERLY
10 TO 20 MPH...DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONLY A PARTIAL RECOVERY IS
EXPECTED WITH LITTLE OR NO DEW.

THURSDAY WILL BE A BREEZY DRY DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS AVERAGING 15
TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP
AROUND 30 PERCENT. DEPENDING ON GREEN-UP STATUS FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MIGHT HAVE TO BE BROACHED. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS BY LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK DRY WITH LESS WIND AND MORE NORMAL
RECOVERIES AT NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
RAIN SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND OR A LITTLE
UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO
EFFECT ON WATERSHEDS IN OUR HYDRO SERVICE AREA (HSA).

AFTER THAT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GREATER
CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT.

START DATES FOR THE REST OF EAST CENTRAL NY AND ADJACENT WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND ARE AS FOLLOWS...

MAY 15TH...THE MOHAWK VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...
BENNINGTON COUNTY VT...THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.

MAY 20TH...EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY VT.

MAY 25TH...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY VT.

DURING THE GROWING SEASON FREEZE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED WHEN THE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 32 DEGREES OR LOWER...AND FROST
ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED WHEN THE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE 33 TO 36 DEGREES RANGE.

THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON FOR A GIVEN AREA IS BASED ON THE
MEDIAN DATE OF THE LAST SPRING FREEZE BASED ON 1981-2010 NORMALS AND
IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ038>040-
     047>053-058>061-063>066.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ041-043-
     054-083-084.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ025.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001.
VT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VTZ013.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV
CLIMATE...IAA