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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 161741
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
140 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS.  WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...THERE COULD BE A SHOWER
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION.  THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IS FORECAST TO BE ON
THE INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 115 PM...CURRENT TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...SO HAVE RAISED HOURLY AND MAX TEMP GRIDS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. IN ADDITION...CURRENT
WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SO HAVE DECREASED
BY ABOUT 5 MPH SO MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS NOW IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ITS
INFLUENCE ACROSS THE CWFA SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL
WEATHER FOR THE REGION. ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE
NATION WILL LIKELY BRING SOME CLOUD DEBRIS INTO THE REGION DURING
SATURDAY BUT AT THE PRESENT TIME WE WILL KEEP POPS RATHER LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TOWARD SEASONABLE VALUES FOR AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SOME LOCATIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE CAPITAL REGION MAY APPROACH FROST LEVEL CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...WE WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING IN THE HWO AS CONFIDENCE
IS NOT QUIET MEETING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH RIDGING OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GUIDANCE THEN HAS THE RIDGE FLATTEN
OUT...HOWEVER THERE ARE DIFFERENCES HANDLING THE CUT OFF AS WE HEAD
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC LEAD WHICH HAS FAVORED A BLEND
OF THE EC ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE GEFS MEANS.

AT THIS TIME...EXPECTING DRY WEATHER TO HOLD FOR SUNDAY WITH THE
CONDITIONS TURNING UNSETTLED NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE REGION BY MID WEEK. FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED
TO PARALLEL THE SYSTEM SO IT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS AND EXIT
THE REGION. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE
BOUNDARIES.

HAVE KEPT FORECAST SIMPLE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND CHANCE
POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NOT SURE ABOUT TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH WILL VARY AS THE MODELS HAVE DIFFICULTIES DEALING WITH THE CUT
OFF.

LOOKING AT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY AS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME STRONGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK DESPITE A PERSISTENT STATIONARY FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.  CIRRUS WRAPAROUND
WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR NORTHERN NEW BRUNSWICK WILL BE SEEN WELL TO
THE NORTH OF KGFL THIS AFTERNOON.  MORE CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT...AND TRACKING
ACROSS OHIO...WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN ZONES
ON FRIDAY.  OTRW VERY DRY WITH JUST SOME FAIR WEATHER CU AT MID
LEVELS EXPECTED.

WINDS WILL BE THE ISSUE OF THE PERIOD WITH A WESTERLY FLOW OF 10 TO
20 KNOTS PLUS GUSTS TODAY DIMINISHING TO UNDER 7 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...
BUILDING BACK UP ON FRIDAY...BUT TO ABOUT HALF THE SPEEDS OF TODAY.
A MID-LEVEL JET MAXIMA PASSING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AIRPORTS THIS
EVENING WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY MARGINAL LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT THOSE AIRPORTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRI PM-MON...VFR...NO SIG WX.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PER COORDINATION WITH OUR STATE PARTNERS...ALL AREAS HAVE REACHED
GREEN UP.

WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 39 MPH AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON...TONIGHT THEY WILL
BECOME LIGHT WEST AND BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE DRY TODAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES INTO THE
20-30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO 80-100 PERCENT BY
FRIDAY MORNING...FALLING AGAIN TO NEAR 30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINIMAL TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. RESULT WILL BE CONTINUING DIMINISH FLOWS
ALONG AREA RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GREATER
CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...BENNINGTON
COUNTY VT AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT.

START DATES FOR THE REST OF EAST CENTRAL NY AND ADJACENT WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND ARE AS FOLLOWS...

MAY 20TH...EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY VT.

MAY 25TH...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY VT.

DURING THE GROWING SEASON FREEZE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED WHEN THE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 32 DEGREES OR LOWER...AND FROST
ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED WHEN THE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE 33 TO 36 DEGREES RANGE.

THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON FOR A GIVEN AREA IS BASED ON THE
MEDIAN DATE OF THE LAST SPRING FREEZE BASED ON 1981-2010 NORMALS AND
IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...GJM/BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...ELH
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM
CLIMATE...