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828
FXUS61 KALY 101039
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
639 AM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers mainly south and west of the Greater Capital
Region this morning with diminish by this afternoon with mostly
cloudy and cool conditions continuing.  An upper level low will
bring some isolated to scattered showers for the weekend with the
most widespread coverage late Saturday night through Sunday.
Temperatures will run below normal through the weekend into early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 638 AM EDT...A positively tilted mid and upper level
trough is setting up over southwest Quebec, southeast Ontario,
the eastern Great Lakes Region and the Midwest this morning. Low
to mid level southwest flow continues aloft over NY and New
England. An inverted sfc trough located north of low pressure
moving towards and east of the Delmarva Region will continue to
produce some showers mainly south and west of Albany. The
coverage has become more scattered from the Capital
District/Mohawk Valley west/southwest.

High pressure near northern Maine and New Brunswick continues to
funnel some low-level dry air toward the region, which is
eroding the showers, as they try to lift north and east of the
Capital Region. Some low level easterlies are occurring off the
western New England higher terrain. We have tried to trim the
showers to northing or slight chances from Albany
north/northeast. The best forcing and moisture is occurring to
the south and west and light pcpn amounts of a few hundredths to
a quarter/half inch has occurred in the mid Hudson
Valley/southeast Catskills.

The highest PoPs in the late morning and afternoon will be for
the western Mohawk Valley/eastern Catskills/mid Hudson Valley.
The sfc wave will move off into the western Atlantic and the
inverted trough will pivot westward with the showers more
numerous over central NY and the western portion of the county
warning area. Mostly cloudy conditions will prevail, though some
breaks of sun may occur north/northeast of Albany. Temps will
run below normal by 5 to 7 degrees with highs favored from a
MAV/MET blend with upper 50s to lower 60s in the valleys with
the warmest readings in the Upper Hudson Valley with upper 40s
to mid 50s over the hills and mtns.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight...A lull in the showers is likely except west of the
Hudson River Valley/Lake George, where isolated showers may
linger. The pause will be due to high pressure trying to build
in from the east and the initial trough of low pressure
weakening and departing with micro-ridging in between. However,
another short-wave disturbance will be digging in from Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes Region. Lows will be on the cool side with
40-45F readings in the lower elevations and mid 30s to around
40F over the higher terrain.

Saturday is looking like the better half of the weekend right
now with weak ridging ahead of the next short-wave re-
invigorating the mid and upper level low. Partly to mostly
cloudy conditions will prevail and some isolated to scattered
showers will begin to work in ahead of the disturbance and an
occluded front...especially west of the I-87 corridor. Temps
will still run below normal by 5 degrees or slightly more with
highs in the 60-65F range in the valleys and 50s over the
higher terrain. The highest PoPs were confined to areas mainly
west of I-87 corridor.

Saturday night into Sunday...the short-range guidance and
ensembles continue to show falling heights and an uptick in
cyclonic vorticity advection with the short-wave rotating around
the mid and upper level trough over NY and New England. Showers
will increase overnight into Sunday morning where PoPs are in
the high chance and likely range. The showers will become more
widespread in the late morning into the early afternoon.
Precipitation totals will range from a few hundredths to a few
tenths of an inch. The better forcing with the short-wave and
the sfc trough pivoting around another weak wave moving across
the northern mid Atlantic States will be west/southwest of the
Tri Cities. Lows Sat night will be in the 40s with some upper
30s over the higher terrain, while max temps could run close to
10 degrees below normal on Sunday with 50s, though some lower
60s are possible north of Albany in the Upper Hudson River
Valley again and some locations in the mtns may remain in the
40s.

The mid and upper level trough moves downstream of eastern NY
and western New England Sunday with the showers diminishing and
ending. It will be partly cloudy to mostly clear in a few
locations with high pressure building in from the south and
heights briefly rising aloft. Lows will range from the mid 30s
(southern Dacks/southern Greens) to lower/mid 40s across the
rest of the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The long term period looks to feature seasonable temperatures with
repeated chances for rain showers. Southwest flow in place through
the first half of the workweek will aid afternoon highs in reaching
the upper 50s to mid 60s in high terrain and mid 60s to mid 70s at
lower elevations each day, while overnight lows dip to the mid 40s
to mid 50s. A warm front will lift across the region Monday
afternoon to evening, bringing light rain showers. Later on Tuesday
and into Tuesday night, a deep upper low tracking across southern
Quebec will likely result in additional rain with possible thunder
as a cold front crosses the region.

By Wednesday, a weakening upper low moving through the Mississippi
and Ohio Valleys could support the development of a coastal low
along the aforementioned front, which may be close enough for yet
another round of rain, however forecast confidence remains low at
these lead times with significant disparities among numerical
guidance. Conditions may finally trend drier by Thursday as upper
troughing moves over the Canadian Maritimes, potentially allowing
upper ridging to build into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 06Z Saturday...Prevailing VFR conditions with cigs above 6
kft and unrestricted vsbys will give way to increasing likelihood of
MVFR cigs/vsbys within light rain showers as a warm front lifts
across the region. POU remains the terminal expected to see the most
impacts from showers with MVFR cigs/vsbys expected after 08Z Fri.
Showers will continue through much of the day, but vsby restrictions
are only anticipated within heavier shower elements while VFR vsbys
prevail. Farther north, ALB/PSF may also see period of MVFR vsbys
and cigs within light showers, but coverage and duration are
expected to be less than at POU with prevailing VFR conditions.
Showers may again linger into the afternoon, with low confidence in
any terminal impacts. GFL remains the least likely to see vsby/cig
reductions as showers may remain south of the terminal, and have
maintained prevailing VFR throughout the period in TAF. Showers
largely end after 00Z Sat as conditions return to VFR across the
region.

Light east to northeast winds at 3-8 kt will continue through much
of the period, with flow turning out of the east to southeast after
12-18Z Fri. POU/PSF may see occasional gusts to 15 kt through 18Z
Fri.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...Chance TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Picard
AVIATION...Picard