National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS61 KALY 151616
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1216 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.  A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM...FA REMAINS UNDER A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S. CLOUDS ASSOC WITH NEXT SYSTEM REMAIN OVER THE W
GRTLKS AND W MIDWEST. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS BASED ON
06UTC MAV AND CURRENT TEMPS. GENERALLY MAX TEMPS HAVE BEEN RAISED
A NOTCH OR TWO. OTHERWISE A FINE SUNNY AFTN FOR THE RGN.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE E GRTLKS/OHIO
VALLEY. THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL BRING SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR MID JUNE. H850
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +10C TO +12C RANGE WITH MIXING TO H800-850.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND U60S TO L70S OVER THE MTNS. THE WARMEST SPOT WILL
BE IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WHERE L80S WILL BE COMMON.
HUMIDITIES WILL BE COMFORTABLE. SFC DEWPTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 40S TO L50S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE SFC ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS EAST OF THE CAROLINAS WITH
THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING ZONAL OVER THE NRN PLAINS...GREAT
LAKES REGION...AND THE NORTHEAST.  A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION AND SRN ONTARIO. LOW AND
MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION INCREASES...AS CIRRUS AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS AND CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START THE EVENING WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO DROP OFF SHARPLY BEFORE THE CLOUDS INCREASE. THE METMOS
TEMPS WERE FAVORED COMPARED TO THE COOLER GFSMOS VALUES. OVERALL
WENT A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THE METMOS VALUES...BUT NOT AS COLD
AS THE GFSMOS VALUES. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE M40S TO L50S
ACROSS THE REGION.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...A PREFRONTAL OR THERMAL TROUGH AHEAD OF THE
SFC CYCLONE PASSING NORTH OF OTTAWA WILL BRING A CHC OF SHOWERS
AND SOME ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FCST AREA DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS/NAM BOTH INDICATE STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION AT H850...ESPECIALLY FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION NORTH DURING THE DAY. THE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY IS PRETTY MEAGER WITH LESS THAN 500 J/KG DURING THE
PM. SHOWALTER VALUES DIP TO 0 TO -1C BRIEFLY.  THE BEST THETA-E
ADVECTION AND LOW- LEVEL CONVERGENCE WITH A 40-50 KT H850 LLJ
LOOKS TO BE OVER THE NRN TWO THIRDS OF THE FCST AREA...AND LIKELY
POPS WERE USED IN THE PM. PWATS INCREASE BRIEFLY TO AN INCH TO AN
INCH AND TWO THIRDS. A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA BY
THE EARLY PM. THE CHC OF SHOWERS DECREASES IN THE EARLY EVENING.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE IN THE M60S TO M70S NORTH OF THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT...AND U70S TO L80S ACROSS THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN TACONICS...AND NW CT WHERE SOME MIXED CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY PM. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
AND A WIND SHIFT TO WEST WILL OCCUR WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. A
BLEND OF THE MET/MAV VALUES WERE USED FOR LOWS IN THE 50S.

MON-MON NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT TIED TO THE CYCLONE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. THE TIMING IS VARIABLE IN THE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AVAILABLE IS MURKY FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE CHANCES. A SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS WAS USED IN THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. IT APPEARS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BASED ON THE
NAM/CANADIAN GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL AT
6-6.5 C/KM WITH GENERALLY 40-50 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR FROM THE
WEST. SOUNDINGS INDICATE UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FOR POSSIBLE LINEAR
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE LOOKS LIMITED DUE
TO A PAUCITY OF INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH H850 TEMPS OF +12 TO
+14C WITH HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND IN THE
VALLEYS...AND U60S TO M70S OVER THE MTNS. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TO L60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
KEEPING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST UNDER A TROUGH WITH A
MEAN TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A MEAN RIDGE JUST EAST OF
THE ROCKIES.

STARTING OUT PERIOD WITH CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. A COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST TUESDAY...HOWEVER SHORT
WAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD TRIGGER SOME
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION.

THERE ARE LARGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF DEALING WITH A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ORIGINATING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVING
EASTWARD ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE BRINGING A DEEPENING LOW TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY MID WEEK. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS WAVE
AND MOVES IT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MID WEEK. HAVE USED GUIDANCE
FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER WHICH HAS FAVORED EC ENSEMBLE
MEANS FOR THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS.

DESPITE A TROUGH OVER REGION RIDGING ORIGINATING FROM CANADA IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE BRINGING SOME MUCH NEEDED FAIR
WEATHER TO THE REGION.

OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES
EDGING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DUE TO WET GROUND AND POTENTIAL FOR DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY
THIS MORNING. HAVE FOG MENTIONED AT KGFL AND KPOU. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND SHOULD BECOME GUSTY AT KALB AND KPSF FOR
THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.WINDS WILL WEAKEN/DIMINISH
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR/MVFR. -SHRA LIKELY. CHC -TSRA. MAINLY IN THE AFTN.
SUN NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA IN THE EVNG.
MON...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA. SLIGHT CHC -TSRA. MAINLY IN THE
AFTN/EVNG.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC -SHRA. SLIGHT CHC -TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN SINCE LATE MAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS
TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.  A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT TO THE SYSTEM BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY.

THE RH TRENDS WILL FAVOR DEW FORMATION THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS THE HOUSATONIC BASIN IN NW
CT. THE MINOR FLOODING ACROSS THE WRN-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY SHOULD
SUBSIDE TODAY.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SOME WET WEATHER WILL
RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TOTAL RAINFALL BY MONDAY MORNING WILL
RANGE FROM TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OVER THE SRN TIER OF THE HSA TO A
HALF AN INCH OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN PORTIONS. THE NERFC QPF WAS
USED CLOSELY INTO MONDAY. QPF IS VARIABLE WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY INTO THE MID WEEK
ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE VERY WET
WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...11/SNYDER/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...WASULA