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000
FXUS61 KALY 140543
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
143 AM EDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS OUR REGION FOR TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. TONIGHT WILL BE COLD WITH NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
AND WIDESPREAD FROST. IT WILL BE DRY TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY BRINGING
CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM EDT...THE FREEZE WARNING REMAINS POSTED FOR THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY FOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE TROUGH AXIS OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST
OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY FALLEN OFF THIS EVENING AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S. NEAR RECORD TO RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST...REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAILS. THE LAST TIME
THE TEMPERATURE FELL INTO THE 30S AT ALBANY WAS APRIL 28TH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE ON TUESDAY BACK TOWARD SEASONABLE
READINGS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD AND
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN.

IT WILL BE COLD AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT AS COLD AS
TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS. THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR A FROST ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST
A PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED. HAVE THE
THREAT ADDRESSED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WEDNESDAY AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH BRINGING THE
THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL AREA ARE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. A BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
HELPING BOOST TEMPERATURES BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS DESPITE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO OCCLUDED AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHER PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD
IN ON THURSDAY. WE ARE LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER AND WARM WEATHER ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY LINGERS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE
SANDWICHED UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. LATEST 12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CANADIAN
LOW WILL BE SLIGHTLY EAST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...LEAVING THE FORECAST
AREA UNDER SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST AREA DRY
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE OFF TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS
BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL MODERATE TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST AND AWAY FROM THE KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF TAF SITES. AS IT
MOVES AWAY...RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC WILL MOVE OVER THE
TAF SITES. THIS WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
ENDING AT 06Z WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY P6SM SKC WITH
AREAS OF SCT-BKN CLOUDS CU/AC...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD.

SURFCAE WINDS WILL BE CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH A FEW
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE...THEN NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY...THEN CALM OR LIGHT AND VARTIABLE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
LATE TUE NIGHT. VFR. NO SIG WX.
WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA...MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND EVNG.
THU- FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SAT...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS OUR REGION FOR TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. IT WILL BE DRY TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY BRINGING CHANCES OF
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL HAVE WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
EXPECTING DRY WEATHER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GREATER
CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT.

DURING THE GROWING SEASON FREEZE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED WHEN THE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 32 DEGREES OR LOWER...AND FROST
ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED WHEN THE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE 33 TO 36 DEGREES RANGE.

THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON FOR A GIVEN AREA IS BASED ON THE
MEDIAN DATE OF THE LAST SPRING FREEZE BASED ON 1981-2010 NORMALS AND
IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES.

START DATES FOR THE REST OF EAST CENTRAL NY AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND ARE AS FOLLOWS...

MAY 15TH...THE MOHAWK VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...
BENNINGTON COUNTY VT...THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.

MAY 20TH...EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY VT.

MAY 25TH...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY VT.

ALBANY...RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874
MAY 14TH... 30 DEGREES 1996
MAY 15TH... 31 DEGREES 1977

GLENS FALLS...RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
MAY 14TH... 28 DEGREES 1967
MAY 15TH... 30 DEGREES 1971

POUGHKEEPSIE...RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1949
MAY 14TH... 30 DEGREES 1996
MAY 15TH... 31 DEGREES 1996

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ013.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ041-043-049-
     050-052-053-059-060-064-065-083-084.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...IAA/FRUGIS/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...IAA
HYDROLOGY...IAA
CLIMATE...IAA