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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 240527
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
127 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY. A STORM WILL
DEVELOP...INTENSIFY...AND LINGER ON THIS FRONT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE STORM WILL DRAW MUCH COOLER
AIR INTO THE REGION AND BRING DAMP WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
MEMORIAL DAY AND DRIFT OVER OUR REGION INTO MIDWEEK...WITH FAIR
DRY AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LOW STILL IN PROGRESS OF CUTTING AND SHOWERY NATURE TO
PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE OF A STEADY RAIN...WITH SOME EMBEDDED
AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN.  COLD FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST
AND ADJUSTING THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS...WITH JUST MINOR CHANGES TO RAIN CHANCES
AND TEMPERATURES. WILL MAKE MORE CHANGES TO TODAY AND TONIGHT ONCE
ALL NEW GUIDANCE IS IN.  STILL LOOKS LIKE A RAINY DAY AND NIGHT WITH
MUCH COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE OOUTC GFS IS IN LINE WITH PAST FEW RUNS OF THE MODEL SUITE.
ONLY DIFFERENCE IN 00UTC RUNS IS NAM IS A BIT FASTER WITH PROGRESSION
OF WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM...BUT ITS BEEN THE FAST MODEL FOR SVRL
RUNS...AND AT THIS TIME ITS PROBABLY THE OUTLIER.

BY SAT MORNING THE 500HPA CUT OFF WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK...AND COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
BE CENTERED JUST OFF BOSTON. 500HPA CUT OFF WILL TAKE ON A NEG
TILT SAT...AND ENHANCE COOL CONVEYOR BELT PCPN FM COASTAL
LOW...BACK INTO MOST OF THE FCA. WITH COASTAL LOW ALMOST
VERTICAL...12MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NYS...IT SHOULD BE A RAW
NOVEMBER-ESQ DAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND A BRISK CHILLY
NORTH WIND. H850 TEMPS FALL TO -2 TO -4C OVER FCA...COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SNOW OVER HIGHEST TRRN. (YES ITS MAY 25TH IN NEW YORK WERE
TALKING ABOUT HERE). AT SFC HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE IN MID 40S TO
MID 50S...15-20 DEG BLO NRML. LOWS SAT NT WILL FALL TO MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST ON EAST SIDE OF FCA AND
OVER HIR TRRN...DIMISHING TWRD THE WEST. DURING SAT AND SAT NT
ANOTHER 0.30 TO 1.0 INCHES OF QPF IS FCST BY GFS...0.10 TO 0.5 BY
GEM...AND A TENTH TO AN INCH BY THE "FAST" NAM WHICH IS ALL EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER

BOTH THE GEM AND GFS TAKE THE VERTICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO
THE GULF OF MAIN SUNDAY AND ONWARD INTO THE MARITIMES...IN LINE
WITH CURRENT FCST. PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH TO SCT -SHRA EAST...ISOLD
-SHRA WEST...TIED MAINLY TO LAST OF SHORT WVS SPIRALING  AROUND
500HPA CUT OFF...DIURNAL HEATING AND TRRN. CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH
OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH BREAKS OF SUN WILL INCR ALONG W PERIPHERY OF
FCA...AND IN THE SOUTHEAST. MOST OF AREA HAS A CHANCE TO SEE
SUNSET SAT EVENING. WITH LESS PCPN...SOME SUN MAX TEMPS WILL
RECOVER TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WITH SOME MID 60S SE ON SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THE CUT OFF EXITS INTO LABRADOR...AND THE BEGINNINGS
OF THE NEXT MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TAKE SHAPE AS A 500HPA RIDGE
BUILDS FM MISS VLY TO HUDSON BAY CANADA AND THEN STARTS BUILDING
EAST.

AT THE SFC LARGE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GRTLKS MONDAY...AND
ACROSS FCA MON NT.  UNDER STRONG SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPS
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S WITH LOW 70S IN VLYS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALB.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS UNDER
THE SFC HIGH...AND LOWS IN 30S AND LOW 40S. THERE MAY BE FROST AND
FREEZE ISSUES PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIR TRRN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT STARTING TO BUILD IN FAIR
AND WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  HIGHS TUESDAY
IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT 40 TO 50. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. IT WILL GET EVEN WARMER WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE LOW OR MID 50S...AND THE HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 06Z SATURDAY. WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
THROUGH THE DAY...IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE...WITH OCCASIONAL
FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. AFTER 01Z-03Z...VCSH WITH
POTENTIAL SLOW IMPROVEMENTS TO CEILINGS INTO SOLID MVFR...BORDERING
ON LOW VFR. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN TO SHIFT A BIT EAST OF THE
TAF SITES BY THE EVENING...VISIBILITIES COULD IMPROVE TO VFR.

LIGHT WEST OT NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BECOME
NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY AT AROUND 10 KT. THERE COULD BE
SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 15 KT AND 20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT REMAINING STEADY AROUND 10 KT THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-SAT...MVFR/IFR. -SHRA LIKELY. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SAT NGT-SUN...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SUN NGT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS...MODERATE
TO HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ALONG WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SLIDES TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...THEN STALLS ON FRIDAY. AFTER THAT THE
DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF TO OUR WEST IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ALSO
OCCURRING ALONG THE OLD BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOWS
WILL THEN SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINS AND TRAINING OF CONVECTIVE
CELLS. AFTER THAT EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF POSSIBLE HEAVY SYNOPTIC
RAINFALL FROM THE UPPER AND SURFACE LOWS.

ALL OF THIS RAINFALL WILL COME ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE PERIODS OF HEAVY/TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...AND
ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLOOD THREAT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ032-033-
     038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM