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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 201137
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
737 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY WITH
JUST A SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF SEEING A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.  A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL  OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK WITH CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 622 AM EDT...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION IS ATTEMPTING TO PUSH ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. OUR
REGION REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS RIDGING...WITH NW
FLOW AT 500 HPA ACROSS OUR AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...A LIGHT BUT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC
CONTINUES ACROSS OUR AREA. WHILE IT HAS REMAINED RAIN FREE THIS
MORNING...THERE ARE A GOOD DEAL OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS IN PLACE.
DURING THE MORNING HOURS...IT LOOKS TO STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT
THESE STRATUS CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY START TO BREAK UP TOWARDS
AFTERNOON.

WITH A FEW BREAKS OF SUN THIS AFTERNOON...IT SHOULD
QUICKLY WARM UP...AS 850 HPA TEMPS OF 12-14 DEGREES C WILL BE IN
PLACE. DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS BREAK UP...WE SHOULD
SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 IN A FEW SPOTS. IF CLOUDS WERE TO
HANG IN...TEMPS COULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECASTED...ALTHOUGH WITH THE STRONG MAY SUN THIS SCENARIO WOULD
SEEM LESS LIKELY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALREADY
VISIBLE ON RADAR JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA ACROSS THE NORTHERN ADKS
AND NORTHERN VT. THESE SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD REMAIN
JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...THE PROXIMITY OF THIS
FRONT...COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...MAY ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHC
TO LOW CHC OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN. THE
LATEST 06Z NAM AND 06Z GFS SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WOULD MOST
LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. THE LATEST 07Z 3KM
HRRR DID SHOW A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY...BUT
COVERAGE LOOKS RATHER SPARSE. AS A RESULT...ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE RATHER BRIEF AND PRODUCE LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL...AND MOST AREAS ARE LIKELY TO STAY DRY TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD...AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS VERY SLOWLY BEGINS
TO SPIN EASTWARD.

THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL REMAIN STALLED OR VERY
SLOWLY DRIFT INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO THEN LIFT NORTH AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. MOST OF OUR AREA LOOKS
TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...ESP FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTHWARD...WHERE LOW TO MID 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUES/WED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY...WITH MID 50S TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

WITH THIS BOUNDARY REMAINING CLOSE TO THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE BEST CHC LOOK TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOWARDS
OUR AREA...AND AGAIN DURING THE PEAK HEATING TIME OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ON WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SO FAR TO THE WEST OF THE REGION
ACROSS THE PLAINS...THERE DOESN/T LOOK TO BE AN ORGANIZED THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS COULD ALLOW FOR ANY ISOLD THUNDERSTORM TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...AND ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY CURRENTLY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND TRACK EAST...AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.  THE NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE MAY CUT OFF THE DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. IN TWO PIECES.  ONE
PIECE SHOULD TRACK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DECENT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF IT. THE SECOND PIECE SHOULD BE MORE OF A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRYER AIR IN WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW...TRACKING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON... WITH LESS
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.

SO...GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND JUST A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SHOULD EXIT LAST.  COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. SO...HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S...AROUND 60 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70...AROUND
60 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
IFR CEILINGS ALONG WITH SOME IFR VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES
THROUGH ABOUT 16Z...WHEN THE CEILING SHOULD LIFT TO BORDERLINE
MVFR/VFR. THE CEILING SHOULD BECOME SOLIDLY VFR DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN BREAK UP AND BECOME SCATTERED 20Z-22Z. THERE
CLOUD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE CLEARING LINE BUT NOT ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO MENTION IN TAFS.

SOUTH WINDS AT LESS THAN 10 KT THIS MORNING SHOULD SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY MIDDAY AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-FRI...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA. LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING IFR POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER A CLOUDY AND DAMP MORNING...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL NOT DROP BELOW 50 PERCENT.
S-SE WINDS WILL BECOME W-SW AT AROUND 4-8 MPH. AN ISOLD SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. RH VALUES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL STAY
DRY...THE FEW AREAS THAT RECEIVE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY SEE A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.  THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT
ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF THE WEEK.  DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE
OF THE SHOWERS...BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS
WEEK. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS