-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 241436
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1036 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TODAY. A STORM
WILL DEVELOP...INTENSIFY...AND LINGER ON THIS FRONT NEAR THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE STORM WILL DRAW MUCH
COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION AND BRING DAMP WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
MEMORIAL DAY AND DRIFT OVER OUR REGION INTO MIDWEEK...WITH FAIR DRY
AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1030 AM EDT...HAVE LOWERED TEMPS YET AGAIN AS IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT READINGS HAVE CONTINUED TO FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S
IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWER 60S ONLY REMAINING ACRS FAR SE ZONES.
EXPECT TEMPS TO ONLY RECOVER A FEW DEGREES THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFT AND THEN SLOWLY FALL AS STRONG CAA TAKES HOLD.

RAIN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER DYNAMICS AND
BOUNDARY LAYER FRONTOGENESIS SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN.

TONIGHT...RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE...WITH MORE RAIN DEVELOPING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW...INCLUDING WESTERN
AREAS...WHERE RAIN ASSOCIATED MORE DIRECTLY WITH THE UPPER LOW
SHOULD TRACK INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FALL...INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...AND UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE 00 UTC GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN AGREEMENT AND IN LINE WITH PAST
FEW RUNS OF THE MODEL SUITE. ONLY DIFFERENCE IN 00UTC RUNS IS NAM
IS A BIT FASTER WITH PROGRESSION OF WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEM...BUT
ITS BEEN THE FAST MODEL FOR SVRL RUNS...AND AT THIS TIME ITS
PROBABLY THE OUTLIER.

BY SAT MORNING THE 500HPA CUT OFF WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK...AND COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE LOW WILL
BE CENTERED JUST OFF BOSTON. 500HPA CUT OFF WILL TAKE ON A NEG
TILT SAT...AND ENHANCE COOL CONVEYOR BELT PCPN FM COASTAL
LOW...BACK INTO MOST OF THE FCA. WITH COASTAL LOW ALMOST
VERTICAL...12MB PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS NYS...IT SHOULD BE A RAW
NOVEMBER-ESQ DAY WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND A BRISK CHILLY
NORTH WIND. H850 TEMPS FALL TO -2 TO -4C OVER FCA...COLD ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SNOW OVER HIGHEST TRRN. (YES ITS MAY 25TH IN NEW YORK WERE
TALKING ABOUT HERE). AT SFC HIGH TEMPS SAT WILL BE IN MID 40S TO
MID 50S...15-20 DEG BLO NRML. LOWS SAT NT WILL FALL TO MID 30S TO
LOW 40S. PCPN AMOUNTS WILL BE GREATEST ON EAST SIDE OF FCA AND
OVER HIR TRRN...DIMINISHING TWRD THE WEST. DURING SAT AND SAT NT
ANOTHER 0.30 TO 1.0 INCHES OF QPF IS FCST BY GFS...0.10 TO 0.5 BY
GEM...AND A TENTH TO AN INCH BY THE "FAST" NAM WHICH IS ALL EAST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER

THE GEM/ECMWF/GFS TAKE THE VERTICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY AND ONWARD INTO THE MARITIMES...IN LINE WITH
CURRENT FCST. PCPN SHOULD DIMINISH TO SCT -SHRA EAST...ISOLD -SHRA
WEST...TIED MAINLY TO LAST OF SHORT WVS SPIRALING AROUND 500HPA
CUT OFF...DIURNAL HEATING AND TRRN. CLOUDS WILL LINGER MUCH OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH BREAKS OF SUN WILL INCR ALONG W PERIPHERY OF
FCA...AND IN THE SOUTHEAST. MOST OF AREA HAS A CHANCE TO SEE
SUNSET SUN EVENING. WITH LESS PCPN...SOME SUN MAX TEMPS WILL
RECOVER TO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WITH SOME MID 60S SE ON SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT THE CUT OFF EXITS INTO LABRADOR...AND THE BEGINNINGS
OF THE NEXT MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE TAKE SHAPE AS A 500HPA RIDGE
BUILDS FM MISS VLY TO HUDSON BAY CANADA AND THEN STARTS BUILDING
EAST.

AT THE SFC LARGE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN GRTLKS MONDAY...AND
ACROSS FCA MON NT.  UNDER STRONG SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS TEMPS
WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S WITH LOW 70S IN VLYS SOUTH AND EAST OF
ALB.

MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY UNDER CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS UNDER
THE SFC HIGH...AND LOWS IN 30S AND LOW 40S. THERE MAY BE FROST AND
FREEZE ISSUES PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIR TRRN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE PATTERN CHANGE THAT SET UP MONDAY...BECOMES THE DOMINATE
REGIME DURING THE EFP. 500HPA RIDGE BUILDS FM GULF COAST TO JAMES
BAY...THEN SHIFTS TO EASTERN SEABOARD. 590DM CLOSED HIGH OVER MUCH
OF EAST FROM LATE WED INTO WEEKEND. THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN THERE FOR
DAYS IN GFS...AND THERE`S MORE AGREEMENT BTWN GFS/GEM/12UTC ECMWF
AND ENSEMBLES IN DAYS 5-7 THAN IN THE SHORT TERM.

AT SFC COOLER BUT MODERATED CANADIAN HIGH HOLDS OVER RGN TUES
BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE. WAA BEGINS POURING OVER TOP OF 500HPA
RIDGE AS SFC WMFNT SURGES THROUGH FCA TUES NT AND WED WITH
-SHRA/TSTMS. THIS HAS ALL THE HALLMARKS OF MCS RIDGE ROLLERS.

BY WED EVENING FCA AND MUCH OF USA FROM ROCKIES TO THE SEABOARD IS
UNDER THE EASTERN RIDGE...AND BERMUDA HIGH. TEMPERATURES WHICH
STARTED THE WEEK WELL BLO NORMAL WILL SURGE TO 70S TUES...MID 70S
TO LOW 80S WED...THE 80S THURS AND TWRD 90 FRI.

WILL POPULATE WITH OVERNIGHT WPC GRIDS. ECMWF CLOSE ENOUGH AT THIS
TIME TO GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RAIN IS RATHER PATCHY OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING...BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY STRENGTHENS
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST.  CEILINGS HAVE DROPPED TO MVFR/IFR
LEVELS.

STEADIER RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS AT ALL SITES.  SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT OF THE
RAIN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT SO GOING VCSH WITH MVFR CEILINGS UNTIL
RADAR TRENDS CAN BE CHECKED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

WINDS HAVE INCREASED FROM THE WEST AT KALB...AND WEST TO NORTH WINDS
SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
MORNING... BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT AROUND 10 KT BY
AFTERNOON...AND COULD GUST 15 KT TO 20 KT...THEN JUST BECOME STEADY
AT AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...MVFR/IFR. -SHRA LIKELY. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SAT NGT-SUN...VFR/MVFR...CHC -SHRA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS.
SUN NGT-TUE...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WET CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE AND LINGER ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
INTO LATE SATURDAY BEFORE DRIFTING INTO THE MARITIMES. IT WILL
BRING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THE THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE EAST...AND LEAST
ACROSS THE WEST.

THIS RAINFALL WILL COME ON ALREADY SATURATED SOILS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE PERIODS OF HEAVY/TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
THAT HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST TWO DAYS.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...11/NAS
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...11/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER