-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 171655
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1255 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION TODAY...AND THEN ONLY
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR THE MID AND
LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 1250 PM EDT...MUCH OF THE REGION IS NOW WITHIN SPC/S SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY. SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY IS BEING REALIZED...WITH SBCAPES
OF 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION...A
POTENT SHORTWAVE WAS TRANSLATING EAST NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...PROVIDING SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT. FURTHERMORE...A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH...POSSIBLY A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY...CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NYS. THIS BOUNDARY...OR JUST AHEAD OF
IT...SHOULD REMAIN THE MAIN SFC BASED FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT...GIVEN STRONG 0-6 KM
SHEAR...WITH 500 MB WINDS AROUND 50 KT...UPSTREAM CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP/FORM BOWING SEGMENTS AND MAY RAPIDLY
MOVE ACROSS THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY...CAPITAL REGION...SOUTHERN VT
AND BERKSHIRES. IN ADDITION...BEFORE CONGEALING...SOME MORE
DISCRETE CELLS MAY ATTAIN MID LEVEL ROTATION AND ALLOW FOR LARGE
HAIL FORMATION. WILL INCREASE POPS INTO LIKELY RANGE FOR CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL INCLUDE MENTION
OF GUSTY WINDS/HAIL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SINK FURTHER S AND E LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AND DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AROUND SUNSET. AREAS OF
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL VERY SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. EXPECT SCT SHWRS/TSTMS TO CONTINUE MOST
OF THE DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM ALBANY SOUTH. TO THE NORTH THE SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY END DURING THE AFTERNOON. OVER THE SOUTH THE SHOWERS MAY
EVEN LINGER INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT AFTER THAT EXPECT A LARGE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BUILD IN WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER FOR LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE 65 TO 75 NORTH DUE TO THE EARLIER FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO FEATURE MAINLY
DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. DESPITE A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL AT NIGHT BUT NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY...WITH LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES RESULTING FROM ANOMALOUSLY LOW PWATS OVER THE
REGION.

THE PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE DURING THE WEEKEND...AND LOOKS TO
BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH POSSIBLE DISTURBANCES TRACKING THROUGH THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THERE ARE DISPARITIES AMONG VARIOUS
SOURCES OF MODEL GUIDANCE EVEN REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THIS TIME. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE INCREASING WITH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE POPS FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ON SATURDAY...TO CHANCE BY SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/T-STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AT KGFL BY 12Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH BUILDING INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
WILL MENTION VCSH STARTING AROUND 17Z-18Z...THEN PROB30 FOR TSRA
STARTING FROM 21Z. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
TSRA...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. CONVECTION SHOULD
DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING.

UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH REGARDS TO FOG
POTENTIAL BASED ON DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AND IF TERMINALS RECEIVE
ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. WILL MENTION MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW
WITH IFR POSSIBLE.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 7-10 KT. WINDS COULD BE
BRIEFLY GUSTY IN AND NEAR ANY TSRA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER DARK TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN SINCE LATE MAY.

THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.

DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC
BASIN IN NW CT FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL A FEW DAYS AGO.

BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM A FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO A HALF AN INCH...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK
PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE
VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...KL/GJM/NAS
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM
HYDROLOGY...GJM