-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 172322
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
722 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR
THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 615 PM EDT...A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS
REDEVELOPED ACROSS OTSEGO CO NY...AND CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. WILL
NEED TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THESE STORMS FOR INTENSITY...AND
ALSO RAINFALL RATES...AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE
SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND NE CATSKILLS.

ELSEWHERE...ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING FURTHER NORTH AND WEST. THE MAIN SFC FRONT IS
CURRENTLY SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND
MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUS FOR AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS TO OUR N AND W TO SEE IF WE
NEED TO ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY.

A LULL IN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING...BEFORE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS REDEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK
VALLEY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM N OF THE GREAT LAKES.
WILL INCREASES POPS TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THIS REGION TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS.

AS FOR MIN TEMPS...WITH ADDED MOISTURE FROM TODAY/S SHOWERS AND
STORMS...AS WELL AS FROM WET SOIL FROM RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL...HAVE SIDED WITH THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MET MOS FOR MIN
TEMPS...WITH GENERALLY 50S EXPECTED...WITH SOME LOWER 60S POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
TUESDAY...THE MAIN SFC FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAY. FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER...INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THE TIME THE FRONT
PASSES...SO ALTHOUGH SHOWERS SEEM POSSIBLE...THE PROSPECTS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ANY STRONG ONES...SEEMS LOW. FURTHER
SOUTH AND EAST...THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH GREATER INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. SB CAPES ARE
FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY 1000-1500 J/KG BASED FROM THE NAM ACROSS
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...WESTERN MA...NW CT...AND THE SE CATSKILLS.
THE NAM SEEMED TO HANDLE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
BETTER THAN THE GFS FOR TODAY/S CONVECTION. SO...EXPECT AT LEAST
SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS MAINLY S AND E OF ALBANY...AND
PERHAPS INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN VT...WHERE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT...ESP ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...WITH
ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS...AND LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR. 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR WILL BE A BIT LESS THAN TODAY...SO SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY ALSO
BE SLIGHTLY LESS. HOWEVER...PWAT/S ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHER. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORM
CELLS AND/OR BACK BUILDING COULD OCCUR FOR AREAS S AND E OF
ALBANY...WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. SO...AT THE
VERY LEAST...SOME PONDING OF WATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS. WE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AS WELL...ESPECIALLY SINCE
THE GROUND REMAINS SO WET FROM RECENT RAINFALL. FOR MAX
TEMPS...GENERALLY TOOK BLEND MET/MAV MOS...WITH MID 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...AND GENERALLY LOWER/MID 70S TO
THE NORTH...WITH MAINLY 65-70 ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VT.

TUE NT-WED NT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF THE REGION TUE
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM NW TO SE. MOST NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE RAIN ENDS BY WED AM.
HOWEVER...THE 12Z/NAM HINTS THAT A WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT...ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE SE THIRD OF FORECAST AREA WELL INTO WED MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...SINCE OTHER SOURCES OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DO NOT INDICATE
THIS...HAVE GENERALLY INDICATED DRY CONDITIONS FOR WED.
HOWEVER...FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE SHOULD ADDITIONAL
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST THIS POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT TUE NT
MINS TO FALL INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60 IN MOST AREAS...WITH WED
MAXES REACHING THE LOWER/MID 70S IN MOST VALLEYS AND 65-70 ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME WARMER MAXES COULD OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY SHOULD SKIES CLEAR OUT. FOR WED
NT...EXPECT CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...ALONG WITH COOL
TEMPS...GENERALLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL INITIALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL ON THU AS
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES. RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ENSURE MORE
SEASONABLE WARMTH FOR FRI AND SAT...AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUN-MON.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE FOR SAT-MON...AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY OCCUR SUN-MON.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
WEAK E-W CDFNT CURRENTLY ACROSS N TIER WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH
OVERNIGHT TO MHWK VLY. TUES IT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH ACTING AS A
FOCUS FOR -SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS MAINLY S PORTIONS OF FCA.

CURRENT ISOLD -SHRA/SHOULD END NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT THERE WILL BE A FEW
PATCHY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WITH MVFR CONDS
PRIMARILY IN AREAS THAT HAD -SHRA/TSTMS MON AFTN AND WHERE TD ARE
CONSIDERABLY HIGHER (50S) LIKE ACROSS S TIER OF FCA. CANT RULE OUT
PATCHY IFR ARND DAYBREAK.

TUES WILL BE VFR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS MAINLY ABV 050 WITH MVFR
CONDS IN SCT-BKN SHRA AND ISOLD TSTMS MAINLY FROM ALB SOUTH.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT E NORTH
AND REMAINING VARIABLE SOUTH ON TUESDAY.


OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SAT...VFR...SLGT CHC TSRA.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN UNSETTLED WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR
THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRY
AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.

BASIN AVERAGE AMTS THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH...TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...GREATEST FOR AREAS
NEAR AND S/E OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AMTS MAY BE
MUCH HIGHER...ESP WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS
GREATEST FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...WHERE PONDING OF WATER IN
LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS SEEMS LIKELY. THERE IS
ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IN SOME OF THESE
AREAS DUE TO THE ANOMALOUSLY WET GROUND CONDITIONS...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING AND/OR BACKBUILDING OF THUNDERSTORM CELLS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
THE VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/GJM
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...SNYDER/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM