-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 161505
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1105 AM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS.  WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...THERE COULD
BE A SHOWER ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS REGION.  THEREAFTER...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND AT LEAST
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IS
FORECAST TO BE ON THE INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 11 AM EDT...FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH BREEZY/BRISK
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON...AS SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT/H500 SHORT-WAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK. THE LATEST
BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW SOME 35 KT GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION/TACONICS/BERKSHIRES CORRIDOR...AS
MOMENTUM IS TRANSFERRED TO THE SFC FROM H850-800 AND FUNNELING DOWN
THE MOHAWK VALLEY. MAX TEMPS LOOK ON TRACK WITH DOWNSLOPING
CONTRIBUTING TO M70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO L70S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. REMOVED ANY POPS PRIOR TO SUNSET OVER THE
SRN DACKS. WILL KEEP MENTION OF WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH OR SO IN
THE HWO FOR NOW. NOT ANTICIPATING AN UPGRADE TO A HEADLINE AT THIS
TIME.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA...COLD AIR WILL BE ADVECTING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. H850 TEMPS DROP BACK TOWARD 0C ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DACKS WITH LOWER SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. PER THE NAM/RAP...THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE LOWER STRATUS THAT WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH
AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN 1/3RD OF THE CWFA THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING TO COMMENCE OVERNIGHT AS INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE TAKES PLACE WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING INTO
EASTERN NY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES DIPPING DOWN INTO
THE 30S ACROSS THE DACKS AND PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA
REGION /WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT OCCURRED AS OF YET/ TO
PRECLUDE MENTION OF HEADLINES...40S ELSEWHERE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ITS
INFLUENCE ACROSS THE CWFA SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL
WEATHER FOR THE REGION. ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE
NATION WILL LIKELY BRING SOME CLOUD DEBRIS INTO THE REGION DURING
SATURDAY BUT AT THE PRESENT TIME WE WILL KEEP POPS RATHER LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TOWARD SEASONABLE VALUES FOR AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SOME LOCATIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE CAPITAL REGION MAY APPROACH FROST LEVEL CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...WE WILL REFRAIN FROM MENTIONING IN THE HWO AS CONFIDENCE
IS NOT QUIET MEETING THRESHOLDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT A CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH RIDGING OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GUIDANCE THEN HAS THE RIDGE FLATTEN
OUT...HOWEVER THERE ARE DIFFERENCES HANDLING THE CUT OFF AS WE HEAD
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HAVE FOLLOWED WPC LEAD WHICH HAS FAVORED A BLEND
OF THE EC ENSEMBLE MEANS AND THE GEFS MEANS.

AT THIS TIME...EXPECTING DRY WEATHER TO HOLD FOR SUNDAY WITH THE
CONDITIONS TURNING UNSETTLED NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE REGION BY MID WEEK. FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED
TO PARALLEL THE SYSTEM SO IT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS AND EXIT
THE REGION. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE
BOUNDARIES.

HAVE KEPT FORECAST SIMPLE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND CHANCE
POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. NOT SURE ABOUT TIMING OF THE SYSTEM
WHICH WILL VARY AS THE MODELS HAVE DIFFICULTIES DEALING WITH THE CUT
OFF.

LOOKING AT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TUESDAY AS THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS
THE REGION TODAY. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z/FRIDAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KPOU WHERE CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE
DUE TO FOG AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DECOUPLED AND HAVE SMALL
TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREAD. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING. MVFR MIST CONTINUES TO ABOUT 13Z THERE.

WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY TODAY BECOMING BREEZY WITH GUSTS INTO THE
30S ESPECIALLY AT KALB AND KPSF.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-SUN...VFR. NO SIG WX.
MON...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PER COORDINATION WITH OUR STATE PARTNERS...ALL AREAS HAVE REACHED
GREEN UP.

WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 39 MPH AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON...TONIGHT THEY WILL
BECOME LIGHT WEST AND BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH ON FRIDAY.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE DRY TODAY WITH MINIMUM VALUES INTO THE
20-30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND INCREASE TO 80-100 PERCENT BY
FRIDAY MORNING...FALLING AGAIN TO NEAR 30 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINIMAL TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. RESULT WILL BE CONTINUING DIMINISH FLOWS
ALONG AREA RIVERS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GREATER
CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION...MOHAWK
VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...BERKSHIRES...BENNINGTON
COUNTY VT AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY CT.

START DATES FOR THE REST OF EAST CENTRAL NY AND ADJACENT WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND ARE AS FOLLOWS...

MAY 20TH...EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY VT.

MAY 25TH...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY VT.

DURING THE GROWING SEASON FREEZE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED WHEN THE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 32 DEGREES OR LOWER...AND FROST
ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED WHEN THE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE 33 TO 36 DEGREES RANGE.

THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON FOR A GIVEN AREA IS BASED ON THE
MEDIAN DATE OF THE LAST SPRING FREEZE BASED ON 1981-2010 NORMALS AND
IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM
CLIMATE...