-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 201733
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST.  A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR SEVERAL
ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK WITH CONTINUED SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT...THE LATEST RUC40 SHOWS H500 RIDGE CONTINUING
TO BUILD INTO NORTHEAST...WITH WEAK MID LEVEL VORTICES ROTATING
AROUND THE RIM OF THE RIDGE IN THE W/NW FLOW ALOFT. NO REAL STRONG
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR WIDESPREAD COVERAGE FOR A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. HAVE REMOVED ALL THE POPS SOUTH OF THE
CAPITAL REGION PRIOR TO 22Z...AND KEPT JUST A SLIGHT CHC CLOSER TO
EDGE OF THE COLD FRONT...MORE LIKE STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE ST
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY THIS PM.

THE CLOUDS HAVE THINNED THE MOST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION WITH
SOME SUNSHINE DEVELOPING OVER THE CNTRL PORTION OF THE FCST AREA.
DRASTIC CHANGES TO SKYCOVER BASED ON THE SATELLITE TRENDS WITH
MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED EVERYWHERE EXCEPT OVER
THE SRN DACKS REGION...AND PORTIONS OF THE GREENS.

EXPECTING MAX TEMPS IN THE M70S TO U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH SOME
L80S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. M60S TO M70S WILL BE COMMON ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGH WITH DEWPTS IN
THE M50S TO L60S ACROSS THE FCST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS TO MAX TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD...AS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT PLAINS VERY SLOWLY BEGINS
TO SPIN EASTWARD.

THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL REMAIN STALLED OR VERY
SLOWLY DRIFT INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO THEN LIFT NORTH AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WED NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. MOST OF OUR AREA LOOKS
TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...ESP FOR AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTHWARD...WHERE LOW TO MID 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUES/WED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY...WITH MID 50S TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.

WITH THIS BOUNDARY REMAINING CLOSE TO THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE BEST CHC LOOK TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOWARDS
OUR AREA...AND AGAIN DURING THE PEAK HEATING TIME OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ON WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS SO FAR TO THE WEST OF THE REGION
ACROSS THE PLAINS...THERE DOESN/T LOOK TO BE AN ORGANIZED THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...THE
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS COULD ALLOW FOR ANY ISOLD THUNDERSTORM TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...AND ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY CURRENTLY IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND TRACK EAST...AS A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.  THE NORTHERN STREAM FEATURE MAY CUT OFF THE DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...AND GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. IN TWO PIECES.  ONE
PIECE SHOULD TRACK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
DECENT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF IT. THE SECOND PIECE SHOULD BE MORE OF A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRYER AIR IN WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW...TRACKING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON... WITH LESS
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE.

SO...GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND JUST A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SHOULD EXIT LAST.  COLD ADVECTION SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. SO...HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 60S TO LOWER
70S...AROUND 60 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
IN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70...AROUND
60 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS...CLOUD COVER IS
DIMINISHING AT KALB/KPOU. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A COLD FRONT
PROGRESSING SOUTH INTO OUR REGION WILL STALL AND BECOME STATIONARY
OVER THE REGION AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW CLOUD COVERAGE
TO INCREASE AT ALL TAF SITES HOWEVER VSBYS AND CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN WITHIN VFR CONDITIONS. AS WE GO PAST 12Z TUESDAY...MODELS
ARE SHOWING A PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT WITH VCSH CONDITIONS AT KPSF/KPOU AND HIGHER SHOWER
CHANCES WITH -SHRA CONDITIONS AT KALB/KGFL AS WE WORK TOWARD THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 00Z SUNDAY THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND AS WE GO PAST 12Z TUESDAY...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-FRI AM...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRA/-TSRA.
FRI PM-SATURDAY...VFR. NO SIG WX.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER A CLOUDY AND DAMP MORNING...A FEW BREAKS OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...RH VALUES WILL NOT DROP BELOW 50 PERCENT.
S-SE WINDS WILL BECOME W-SW AT AROUND 4-8 MPH. AN ISOLD SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. RH VALUES
WILL RETURN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH NEARLY CALM WINDS.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLD TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS WILL STAY
DRY...THE FEW AREAS THAT RECEIVE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY SEE A
TENTH OR TWO OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL.  THIS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT
ON THE RIVERS AND STREAMS OF THE REGION.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS DURING MUCH OF THE WEEK.  DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE
OF THE SHOWERS...BASIN AVERAGE QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THIS
WEEK. THE BEST THREAT FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...LFM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS