833
FXUS61 KALY 060811
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
411 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving front will cross the region today bringing
a few passing showers, mainly through this morning. Gradual
clearing is expected this afternoon into tonight, with mostly
sunny and warmer conditions for Tuesday. An approaching low
pressure system will bring additional showers and thunderstorms
late Tuesday night into Wednesday, with unsettled conditions
continuing into late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 410 AM EDT, widespread low clouds continue across the
region, with temperatures mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Isolated showers/patchy drizzle was noted across portions of the
mid Hudson Valley and southern Litchfield County, with
scattered showers also developing across portions of west
central NYS, closer to a cold/occluded front.

The aforementioned front will slowly track east/southeast
across the region today. Abundant low level moisture ahead of
the boundary will keep skies mostly cloudy through this morning,
although some breaks may develop across the SW Adirondacks
later this morning. Isolated to scattered showers will also
continue tracking east/southeast ahead of the front, with best
coverage of showers this morning across the southern
Adirondacks.

As the front settles south and east of the Capital Region this
afternoon, additional isolated to scattered showers should
redevelop near or just ahead of the front. There could be just
enough instability (MU CAPES 250-500 J/kg) across portions of
the mid Hudson Valley and Litchfield County, CT for an embedded
thunderstorm as well.

Farther north and west, low clouds should gradually erode this
afternoon, although thickening high level clouds will spread
northeastward ahead of an upper level disturbance approaching
from the Ohio Valley. So, although some breaks of filtered
sunshine will be possible this afternoon, there will still be
clouds around.

Max temps should rebound into the upper 60s to lower 70s for
most valley areas, with some of the warmest temps possibly
across portions of the Mohawk and upper Hudson Valleys, where
there may be longer periods of filtered sunshine this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
For tonight, aforementioned upper level disturbance across the
Ohio Valley tracks toward the mid Atlantic coast. High clouds to
the north of this system should linger across the region through
midnight, before thinning from north to south thereafter. Once
the high clouds clear out, temps may drop off rapidly across
northern areas, which may also allow for patchy fog to form
within river valleys. Low temps ranging from the lower/mid 40s
across the southern Adirondacks, to the upper 40s to lower 50s
elsewhere.

Mainly sunny skies are expected for Tuesday as a weak ridge of
high pressure builds across the region. Max temps should reach
the lower/mid 70s within valley areas and 65-70 across higher
elevations.

Tuesday night may start clear to partly cloudy, however clouds
will then thicken with showers developing after midnight from
west to east ahead of an approaching warm front and fast moving
upper level disturbance. Showalter Indices drop to between
0 and -2C for areas mainly west of the Hudson River toward
daybreak Wednesday, so some rumbles of thunder may occur in
these areas. Lows mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Showers and embedded thunderstorms should continue through
Wednesday morning across the region with approaching warm front.
The warm front may then lift northeast into the upper Hudson
Valley region and southern VT in the afternoon, allowing
portions of the region to enter the warm sector of incoming
system. Models suggest strong 0-6 km shear of 45-55 KT across
the region, however there is high uncertainty regarding amounts
of instability across the region, with highest probabilities of
MU CAPES >500 J/kg generally south of I-90 Wednesday afternoon.
SPC has placed this area (south of I-90) within a Marginal Risk
for severe thunderstorms, with isolated coverage expected ahead
of incoming cold front from the northwest. Will have to watch
trends as we get closer to see if instability parameters
increase/decrease, which ultimately will depend on timing of
cold front. High temps should reach the upper 60s to lower/mid
70s, although if sunshine breaks out earlier than expected,
portions of the mid Hudson Valley could be warmer, perhaps
reaching around 80.

Lingering showers possible Wednesday evening, otherwise clearing
and cooler with lows mainly in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The extended forecast begins with wet and unsettled weather
returning to the forecast area, as a positively tilted mid and upper
level trough will be approaching from the Midwest and Great Lakes
Region on Thursday.  Broad southwest flow develops aloft, as a warm
front and a low pressure system brings some showers in during the
late the morning into the afternoon with PoPs kept in the likely and
categorical range. The isentropic lift increases ahead of the warm
front late in the day.  A few rumbles of thunder may be possible
south and west of the Capital Region. Max temps will be near normal
with lower to mid 60s in the lower elevations and 50s over the
higher terrain. The coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms
increases Thu night, as the warm front moves close to the NY and PA
border.  Likely PoPs were maintained THU night with lows in the 40s
with pockets of upper 30s over the southern Greens and southern
Dacks. The inclement weather continues on Friday with periods of
rain continuing ahead of the upper low and the occluding cyclone.
With the upper low overhead max temps were lowered below the NBM
values with 40s over the higher terrain and widespread lower to mid
50s in the valleys.  The medium range guidance and ensembles have
the cyclone pull away into northern New England and New Brunswick
with the rain tapering to scattered showers.  It will remain cool
with lows in the mid/upper 30s to mid 40s. Total rainfall may range
from 0.50" to 1.50" based on the WPC and probabilistic guidance with
locally higher amounts THU-FRI.

A brief break in the rainfall is possible on Saturday with isolated
showers or sprinkles over the higher terrain, as the upper level low
moves away and short-wave ridging briefly builds in. Sun mixes with
clouds with highs running about 5 degrees below normal with 50s to
lower 60s for max temps.  Clouds increase Saturday night with the
next northern stream short-wave diving in across the Northeast and
Mid Atlantic Region.  The cyclonic vorticity advection increase the
threat for scattered to numerous showers during the afternoon with
temps near to slightly below normal to close the weekend.  The
latest Day 8-14 Outlook for 13-19 May 2024 from CPC is forecasting
near normal temps with precipitation slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 06Z Tuesday...A warm front remains south of the forecast
area over PA and NJ. The showers/stratiform rain has ended but
plenty of low IFR/low MVFR stratus and patchy MVFR mist remains
over KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU. IFR cigs will continue at
KALB/KGFL/KPSF with some periods of LIFR cigs prior to 14Z/TUE.
Some patchy IFR mist may also form. We expect some patchy
drizzle to develop near KPOU with the cigs falling into the IFR
range prior to 10Z/TUE. Widespread IFR cigs will likely continue
at all the TAF sites through 12Z/TUE and persist until
15Z-18Z/TUE with some increase to MVFR cigs in the 1.0-2.5 kft
AGL range. An isolated shower can not be ruled out with the
approaching cold front.

Drier air in the wake of a cold front moves in during the mid to
late afternoon and expect conditions to rise to VFR levels
between 20Z/TUE and 00Z/WED with the skies become partly cloudy
to clear.

The winds will be light from the south at 5 KT or less to calm
this morning. They will increase from the south to southwest at
less than 10 KT in the late morning into the early pm and then
veer to the west to northwest at 5-10 KT in the mid pm into the
early evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis/KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Wasula