-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 150818
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
418 AM EDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM  TO THE AREA...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  THEN A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY EVENING.  THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME WET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
STRONG SURFACE WARM FRONT AND MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION ARE
RESULTING IN ELEVATED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKE STATE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS LOWER ONTARIO
PROVINCE. PER THE NCEP MODEL SUITE AND HOURLY RAP UPDATES...THE
WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY THIS MORNING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. WE WILL SLOWLY
BRING UP POPS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. IT APPEARS THE WARM FRONT
WILL BECOME PINCHED OFF ALONG THE I81 CORRIDOR INITIALLY THEN
SOUTH OF I90 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY. THE EML AND ASSOCIATED
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS PA/NJ AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION WHERE THE SWODY1 SEE TEXT REMAINS IN PLACE. SO
WHILE NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN
THE WIND FIELDS AND HIGHER PWATS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION /AOA
1.30 INCHES/...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME OF THE DEEPER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS PRODUCING SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS. THE COLD
FRONT /OR OCCLUDED FRONT/ IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE HUDSON
VALLEY REGION AROUND SUNSET. THIS WOULD BE THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THOSE DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ASSUMING WE ARE
ABLE TO ROOT THOSE SURFACE PARCELS IN THE WARM SECTOR. FOR
NOW...PER THE EXPERIMENTAL REFLECTIVITY FORECASTS...WE WILL KEEP
POPS BELOW LIKELY THRESHOLDS AND WATCH TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...AFTER A CHILLY START...THE WARMER AIR SHOULD
ASSIST WITH VALLEY TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S...WITH
60-65F FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TONIGHT...THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR NEW
ENGLAND COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AND CLOSE TO
SEASONABLE OVERNIGHT LOWS...MAINLY LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A NARROW WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THURSDAY WITH TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE BRISK AND GUSTY AS
MIXING LAYER HEIGHTS CLIMB TO AROUND 8-10K FEET. WINDS RESIDING AT
THIS LEVEL ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 40KTS. THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SOME MESOSCALE IMPACTS FROM FUNNELING DOWN THE MOHAWK
AND INTO THE TACONICS COULD POTENTIALLY BE PROBLEMATIC. THE AIR
COMING OUT OF CANADA WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY COOL THIS GO
ROUND...WITH H850 TEMPERATURES ONLY COOLING TO AN AVERAGE OF +8C
DURING THE DAY...LOWER-MIDDLE 70S FOR MANY LOCATIONS WITH UPPER
60S ACROSS THE DACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS.

NCEP MODEL SUITE AND INTERNATIONAL GUIDANCE ARE CONVERGING WITH A
PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THURSDAY EVENING. WHILE MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN RATHER MEAGER...CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO
ACROSS THE DACKS...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN VT SO WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE STILL BE BUILDING IN FROM JAMES BAY
OF CANADA AS THOSE H850 TEMPS DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER SINGLE
DIGITS. IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER FINE SPRING DAY FILLED WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND A NORTHWEST BREEZE BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 70 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...60S
HIGHER TERRAIN.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD LOOKS RATHER BENIGN...AS A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME...THIS PATTERN SHOULD BRING MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL
NIGHTS...WITH SEASONABLY WARM DAYS AND SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
BUILDING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY ON
SUNDAY...AS A RETURN FLOW AROUND DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST DEVELOPS. THIS WILL SIGNIFY THE START OF A WARMING
TREND...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW EXTRA CLOUDS AROUND AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF SHOWER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION
REGIME.

OTHERWISE...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BUILDING AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WITH A SURGE OF WARMTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THAT THE GFS HAS A FEW WRINKLES
UNDER THE RIDGE WITH A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH...WHILE
THE ECMWF IS SHOWING MORE OF A CLASSIC UPPER RIDGE WITH A MORE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN. EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT WARMUP...BUT
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ARE MORE UNCERTAIN. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...INCREASING TO CHANCE FOR
TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO START FLATTENING BY THEN.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE 24 HOUR
TAF PERIOD ENDING 06Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
INTERMITTENT MVFR OR EVEN BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS TODAY ASSOCIATED WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AN APPROACHING SURFACE
WARM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING COVERAGE TO BE SCATTERED...SO WILL MENTION VCSH
AT ALL THE TERMINALS FOR NOW. MODELS FORECASTING THE BEST
INSTABILITY TO BE DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE REGION...HOWEVER SOME
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY POTENT DYNAMICS/LIFT COULD RESULT IN
SOME THUNDER. SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE NEAR CALM...THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
AROUND 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT LATE THIS MORNING
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. A BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH
AROUND THE 00Z THURSDAY TIME FRAME...WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
WEST.

OUTLOOK...
THU...VFR. NO SIG WX. BREEZY.
FRI-SAT...VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUN...VFR...SLGT CHC -SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
-- Changed Discussion --
...WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...
...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...

THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TODAY
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. MINIMUM RH VALUES TODAY ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN THE 40 PERCENTILE. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...DRIER CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL REDUCTION IN WIND GUSTS.
MAXIMUM RH VALUES SHOULD REBOUND TO BETWEEN 80 AND 100
PERCENT...ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS WHERE PRECIPITATION OCCURRED.

THURSDAY...A BREEZY DRY DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS AVERAGING 15 TO
25 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH EXPECTED. RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP TO
AN AVERAGE 30 PERCENT. DEPENDING ON GREEN-UP STATUS FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES MIGHT HAVE TO BE BROACHED. A SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREENS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK DRY WITH LESS WIND AND MORE NORMAL
RECOVERIES AT NIGHT.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
-- Changed Discussion --
CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL INCREASE
TODAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS A WARM
FRONT APPROACHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE AROUND OR A LITTLE UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH. THIS RAINFALL SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON
WATERSHEDS IN OUR HYDRO SERVICE AREA /HSA/.

AFTER THAT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE GROWING SEASON IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...GREATER
CAPITAL DISTRICT...LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT.

START DATES FOR THE REST OF EAST CENTRAL NY AND ADJACENT WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND ARE AS FOLLOWS...

MAY 15TH...THE MOHAWK VALLEY...EASTERN CATSKILLS...TACONICS...
BENNINGTON COUNTY VT...THE BERKSHIRES AND LITCHFIELD HILLS.

MAY 20TH...EASTERN WINDHAM COUNTY VT.

MAY 25TH...THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTY VT.

DURING THE GROWING SEASON FREEZE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED WHEN THE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE 32 DEGREES OR LOWER...AND FROST
ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED WHEN THE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE 33 TO 36 DEGREES RANGE.

THE START OF THE GROWING SEASON FOR A GIVEN AREA IS BASED ON THE
MEDIAN DATE OF THE LAST SPRING FREEZE BASED ON 1981-2010 NORMALS AND
IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING NWS OFFICES.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ038>040-
     047>053-058>061-063>066.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ041-043-054-
     083-084.
MA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ025.
     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MAZ001.
VT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ013.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV/BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM
CLIMATE...IAA

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY