-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 181001
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
600 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH OF ALBANY. OUR
WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
AS OF 545 AM...RADAR SHOWS TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN ZONES WHICH WILL TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST MID MORNING TO MOVE
THROUGH. HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER ABOUT THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH ABOUT 13Z-14Z...THEN GRADUALLY
SHIFT THE HIGHER POPS TO SOUTHERN AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE
ELSE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.



.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...T
AS OF 400 AM...AREA RADARS SHOWING MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO...AND FROM CENTRAL NY SOUTHWEST INTO NW PENNSYLVANIA. ONLY
THE SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA CONTAIN SOME LIGHTNING AT
THIS TIME. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTM
ACTIVITY TODAY WILL OCCUR OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LITTLE IF ANY SURFACE BASED CAPE IS FORECAST FROM THE MOHAWK
VALLEY AND CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH IN NY...AND ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS HEADING OUR WAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE VIRGINIA
COAST EARLY TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT HEATING FOR CONVECTION TODAY
AND HAVE ONLY HIGHLIGHTED THE POTENTIAL FOR NON SEVERE GUSTY WINDS
AND HAIL OVER GREENE...ULSTER...COLUMBIA...DUTCHESS...BERKSHIRE AND
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. POPS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO CHANCE LEVELS
IN MOST AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON...AND TO LIKELY LEVELS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIX COUNTIES. THE HIGHER POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
SOUTH INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WHILE NORTHERN AREAS BEGIN TO CLEAR.
AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY...SOUTHERN AREAS WILL HAVE SHOWERS END
BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL PRODUCE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER DURING THIS
PERIOD. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WITH HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE UPPER
60S AND 70S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S...WITH
SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE OVER THE ADIRONDACKS ZONES. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
70 TO 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND A WARM RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH.
GUIDANCE SHOWING A POSSIBLE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SETTING UP ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED T-STORMS. DEWPOINTS STILL RELATIVELY LOW...BUT STARTING TO
CREEP UP SO THERE COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY ALONG AN AXIS OF LOCAL
MOISTURE POOLING. WILL MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME.

THE MORE EARNEST WARMTH AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO ARRIVE DURING THE
WEEKEND...AS OUR AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION.
INITIALLY ON SATURDAY THERE APPEARS TO BE GREATER INSTABILITY THAN
FRIDAY MAINLY DUE TO RISING DEWPOINTS. HOWEVER...AS OF NOW IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE NOT MUCH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION OTHER THAN
TERRAIN/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...AS MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION IN A
MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
WITH THE INCREASING THREAT FOR CONVECTION...THERE WILL ALSO BE A
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BOUTS OF SEVERE WEATHER BASED ON THE EXPECTED
RING OF FIRE PATTERN POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
BE ABOVE NORMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WHILE A SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY WORKS SOUTHWARD NEAR KALB.
NOT MUCH FOG POTENTIAL AT KALB/KPOU...AND IT APPEARS KGFL MAY ESCAPE
WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT PERIODS OF IFR SINCE A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND
HAS DEVELOPED AND CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AFTER HAVING SOME
FOG EARLIER IN THE EVENING. WILL MENTION TEMPO FOR MVFR VSBY FOR NOW
AND MONITOR OBS AND TRENDS FOR KGFL. THICK FOG WITH VLIFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AT KPSF...AND SINCE THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS NORTH OF THE TERMINAL FOG SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.

AFTER 12Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THE WEATHER
WILL BECOME UNSETTLED WITH SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL BE SOUTH OF
KALB...AFFECTING THE KPOU/KPSF TERMINALS. AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WILL
MENTION PREDOMINANT SHOWERS FOR KPOU/KPSF AND A PROB30 FOR
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING AT 16Z-17Z. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
MORE STABLE FROM KALB TO KGFL...SO ONLY SHOWERS MENTIONED THERE.

SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING FOR
KPSF/KPOU AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD.
PRECIP SHOULD END BY LATE EVENING OR MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME LIGHT FOG
AND ASSOC MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING. VFR CONDITIONS AND
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KALB/KGFL DURING THE EVENING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND
3-6 KT DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-FRI...MAINLY VFR. NO SIG WX. PSBL LATE NIGHT FOG ESPEC AT
KGFL/KPSF.
SAT...MAINLY VFR...SLGT CHC TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RECENT WET
WEATHER.

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS SOUTH OF ALBANY. OUR
WEATHER WILL IMPROVE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES IN WITH DRY AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA.

BASIN AVERAGE AMTS THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH...TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH...GREATEST FOR AREAS
NEAR AND S/E OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AMTS MAY BE
MUCH HIGHER...ESP WHERE ANY THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER ANY
PARTICULAR LOCATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL LOOKS
GREATEST FOR AREAS S AND E OF ALBANY...WHERE PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID
WEEK PERIOD...ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
THE VERY WET WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/KL
HYDROLOGY...GJM/KL