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000
FXUS61 KALY 182334
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
734 PM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
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HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
WITH CLOUDS INCREASING. MEANWHILE... MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS AND
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASING
THREAT FOR SHOWERS TOMORROW...WHICH WILL EXTEND INTO MOST OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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AS OF 730 PM...NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST
OF NRN NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH AND EAST OF
FCST AREA WITH SOME DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BASED ON SATELLITE AND
RADAR LOOPS. INCREASED WINDS SLIGHTLY IN CAPITAL REGION BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS WITH S/SE BREEZE. SKY GRIDS ALSO CHANGED SLIGHTLY
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS FROM MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL
REGION/BERKS SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST ON SUNDAY WITH THE GFS NOW
FORECASTING A RAINY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. THE
OTHER MODELS STILL SHOW GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION WITH MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE FORECAST POPS TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 30
AND 40 PERCENT BY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE AT THAT LEVEL
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR AND STLT TRENDS...
THE 12Z GFS RUN ALREADY SEEMS TO BE IN ERROR SO HAVE GENERALLY
DISCOUNTED THE RAINY DAY SCENARIO. (THE GFS IS CURRENTLY FORECASTING
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE OF PCPN TO OCCUR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE 00Z THIS EVENING...EVEN THOUGH RADAR
TRENDS SHOW THE PCPN REMAINING TO THE SOUTH AND ALSO MOVING FURTHER
AWAY THIS EVENING).

HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPS OVER THE SOUTH DUE TO MORE CLOUDINESS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

A WARM AIR MASS WILL BE SURGING TOWARD THE REGION MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH BOTH THE NAM AND GFS STATISTICAL GUIDANCE INDICATING
DEWPOINTS RISING TO 60 OR MORE IN MANY AREAS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL ALSO SUBSIDE SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE REGION DURING THAT
TIME...THEREBY KEEPING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS GOING MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST POPS GENERALLY BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT DURING
THIS PERIOD AND ALSO INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTN AND EVENING DUE TO THE INCREASED INSTABILITY. HIGHS
MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S...AND THE LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50
TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HPC GUIDANCE.  A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR REGION
WILL BE THE FOCUS OF POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
WORK WEEK.  A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING AN END TO THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS...TO PROVIDE A
NICE START TO THE WEEKEND THAT FOLLOWS.

TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT ITS NORTHERNMOST EXTENT ACROSS THE STATE.  HIGHS
WILL RANGE MAINLY FROM THE LOWER AND MID 70S ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN...TO THE LOWER AND MID 80S SOUTH AND VALLEYS...WITH A FEW
UPPER 60S IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE ADIRONDACKS.  HIGHS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS...TO THE UPPER 70S IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY.  POST
COLD-FRONTAL HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60
DEGREES IN THE ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE
HUDSON VALLEY.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY COOLER...WITH READINGS
BOTTOMING OUT IN PRIMARILY THE 50S AND LOWER 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.  BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...READINGS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER.
NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS FOR ALBANY FOR THE PERIOD ARE LOWER 70S AND
AROUND 50...RESPECTIVELY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT ALL TAF SITES.
MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. HAVE INCLUDED MVFR VISIBILITY AT
KGFL TOWARDS DAYBREAK FOR PATCHY FOG AS WELL AS LOWERING CEILINGS
CLOSE TO MVFR LEVELS AT KPOU AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS HELP TO
TRANSPORT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS WELL WITH LITTLE IMPACTS TO FLIGHT OPERATIONS.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AROUND
5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...VFR. SLGT CHC -SHRAS.
MON-THU...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRAS/-TSRAS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND SOUTH
THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON SUNDAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 MPH.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RISE 90 PERCENT OR MORE TONIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH ON SUNDAY...BETWEEN 50 AND 70
PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OVERALL QPF ON SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW ONE TENTH OF AN INCH
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEGINNING SUNDAY...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE DURING
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...GJM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...GJM/BGM
HYDROLOGY...GJM