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425
FXUS61 KALY 152000
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
400 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers diminish this afternoon and evening as a
boundary to the north and west continues to weaken, while an
approaching coastal low brings additional rain showers to the
Mid- Hudson Valley and southern New England overnight. Showers
continue through Thursday before dry weather returns on Friday.
Additional chances for rain are expected this weekend into next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A weakening surface boundary remains draped across portions of
the Northeast while a vertically-stacked upper low and incipient
surface low continue to deepen as they track together to the
northeast along the Mid-Atlantic coast. Locally, enhanced rain
shower coverage over the southern Adirondacks and Upper Hudson
Valley is expected to continue trending northward, with much
more scattered showers persisting across the remainder of the
region. A more solid shield of precipitation is impinging upon
the southern New England coast as the coastal low approaches,
which will reach into areas along and east of the Taconics in
western New England overnight tonight.

Mild temperatures are expected to continue through the period,
with afternoon highs remaining below seasonal norms in the upper
50s to low 60s in high terrain and mid to upper 60s at lower
elevations. Tonight, temperatures fall to lows in the upper 40
to upper 50s across the region. Light south to southeast winds
this afternoon and evening turn out of the east to northeast
about the northern flank of the approaching low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Isolated to scattered showers continue on Thursday as the
coastal low meanders off the Mid-Atlantic coast, with the
highest chances for rain in areas nearest to the the low in
northwestern Connecticut and western Massachusetts. Other
higher terrain areas across the eastern Catskills, southern
Adirondacks, and southern Vermont may also see enhanced shower
coverage while the Mohawk, Schoharie, and Upper Hudson Valleys
trend drier. Temperatures stay cooler to the south and east of
Albany beneath more persistent cloud cover and rain shower
activity, reaching afternoon highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s,
while relatively clearer skies to the north and west yield
warmer temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s.

Dry weather returns to the region by Thursday night as higher
pressure noses into the region as the coastal low exits to the
east. Temperatures near seasonable norms are expected, with
Thursday night lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s across the
region. Developing southeasterly flow on Friday will see
temperatures rise above normal, reaching afternoon highs in the
upper 60s to upper 70s across the region beneath partly cloudy
skies. Another approaching upper shortwave will bring increased
cloud cover ahead of rain shower late Friday night, with mild
overnight temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A mid and upper level low/trough and surface low pressure system
looks to track from the mid-Mississippi Valley to the Carolinas over
the weekend. There is some uncertainty on whether or not a weak
upper trough or upper ridge will be overhead on Saturday, which
would impact rainfall chances. In addition, an inverted trough may
be in place, especially for areas west of the Hudson Valley.
Overall, the best rain chances Saturday look to be for areas west of
the Hudson Valley. By Sunday, stronger upper level ridging will be
in place with surface high pressure nosing in from Atlantic Canada.
This will bring increasingly drier weather for the second half of
the weekend.

Continued upper ridging and surface high pressure in place will
maintain dry conditions for early next week. The next best chance
for rainfall arrives towards midweek as an upper-level trough and
surface low pressure system and cold front approach from the west.

Highs will generally be in the 60s and 70s Saturday through Monday
then trend upward to the 70s to lower 80s Tuesday and Wednesday.
Lows most nights will be in the 40s and 50s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Through 18z Thursday...Periods of showers continue this afternoon
between a stationary front positioned to the north and west and a
coastal storm to the south. The steadiest -SHRA will move across
KGFL, but at there will be at least some -SHRA at KALB/KPOU/KPSF as
well. Conditions will be mainly MVFR through much of the afternoon,
although occasional VFR should also occur at times with BKN-OVC
cigs. Borderline MVFR/VFR cigs expected into early this evening.

THe -SHRA should decrease in coverage by this evening, with
additional -SHRA possibly developing overnight mainly at KPOU/KPSF
from the coastal low as it slowly shifts north. There is low
confidence in how far north/west the -SHRA will get though.
Conditions are expected to deteriorate to MVFR conditions tonight,
mainly due to low cigs.

Winds will initially be south-southeast around 3-6 kt, becoming
north-northeast and increasing to 6-10 kt late tonight into early
Thursday morning.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard
NEAR TERM...Picard
SHORT TERM...Picard
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...JPV