Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 181445 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 945 AM EST Mon Dec 18 2017 .SYNOPSIS... Above normal temperatures for Tuesday otherwise seasonable cold this week. Some light snow is expected into this morning which may lead to some slippery travel for the morning commute. The weather will be unsettled into Tuesday evening with chances for showers especially across the higher terrain. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 940 AM EST, light snow showers continue across the area this morning with some reports of light sleet mixing in briefly. The best chances for snow showers through the rest of the morning should be for areas north of Albany where the best low level moisture and forcing is located. Temperatures currently range from the upper teens in the Dacks to the low 30s. In terms of the forecast this morning, adjusted the hourly temps to reflect recent obs and sent updates to NDFD and web servers. Prev Disc...This morning a warm front will be lifting northeastward through our region. Ahead of this front an area of warm advection snow has developed and will continue into the morning hours. Most likely areas for accumulating snow will be from the Mohawk Valley to points north and east where up to an inch or so of accumulation is expected. Little in the way of accumulation is expected elsewhere. The warm front will lift into New England this afternoon carrying most of the snow with it. Expect spotty precipitation to continue across the northern mountains this afternoon. Highs will be in the 30s with some upper 20s across the northern mountains. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... For tonight the warm front will lift north as a warm front to the Canadian border by Tuesday morning. Any lingering light precipitation will be mainly confined to the northern mountains. Lows will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s. For much of Tuesday the forecast area will be mainly in the warm sector as a cold front is not expected to drop into the region until late in the day. Any precipitation will continue to be light and it will be relatively mild. Highs on Tuesday are expected to be in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Tuesday night through Wednesday expect some lingering snow showers across the northern mountains with some lake enhanced snow showers east of Lake Ontario. Lows Tuesday night will be in the 20s to lower 30s with highs on Wednesday in the mid 20s to upper 30s. Dry weather is expected Wednesday night as a ridge of high pressure builds into the region from Canada. Lows will be in the single digits and teens in most areas. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... An increasingly active weather pattern will take hold during the long term portion of the forecast, as the upper level pattern undergoes further amplification across North America, with the mean trough digging into the central U.S. This digging trough will allow the mid/upper level flow to begin backing across the eastern U.S., allowing for subtropical moisture to begin spreading northward, and also allowing for deep layer ridging to build off the southeast coast, which should set up a strong low/mid level baroclinic zone somewhere from the Gulf Coast to the northeast states. Before this amplification occurs, a dampening shortwave will be tracking across the southeast states to the mid Atlantic coast for Thursday. Models continue to keep this system well to the south of the region, however, will still need to watch for any northward trends with its associated precipitation shield, as previous southern stream impulses thus far this cold season have had a tendency to track farther north than initially expected. For now, will maintain a cold, dry forecast for Thursday as high pressure dominates. Highs should range from the mid 20s to lower 30s in valleys, with teens across higher terrain areas of the Adirondacks. An upper level impulse will then track from the southwest U.S. into the southern Plains and eventually Great Lakes region for Thursday night-Saturday. Initially, warm advection precipitation may bring some light snow to the Adirondacks late Thursday night-Friday morning. Then, as a developing warm conveyor belt develops ahead of the system`s cold front, precipitation is expected to increase in areal coverage for later Friday into Friday night/Saturday. Low level cold air may be tough to dislodge through Friday night for areas north of the Mohawk River into southern VT, so despite warming aloft, a wintry mix, including some freezing rain, may occur in these areas, with rain showers elsewhere. Rain is then expected for Saturday before the cold front crosses the region. Showers may end as snow across higher terrain later Saturday. As for temperatures, cold Thursday night, especially early, with lows in the single digits and teens. Friday highs should reach the 20s and 30s. Friday night lows should occur early, mainly in the 30s, before rising late at night. Saturday high temps should occur in the morning before the cold front passes, with 40s to lower 50s expected. For Saturday night-Sunday, initially some wrap around/Lake enhanced snow showers could occur. Then, will have to watch for a potential wave of low pressure tracking along the frontal system which will have passed through Saturday. Some snow or a wintry mix could develop later Sunday or Sunday night well ahead of any possible wave. Lows Saturday night in the 20s, with highs Sunday mainly in the 20s and 30s. && .AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A warm front will approach from the southwest today into tonight. The front will slowly lift across the region overnight. One batch of light snow showers/flurries has lifted north/east of the TAF sites. Another was developing upstream across central NYS. This next batch is expected to affect KGFL this morning with periods of MVFR Vsbys. Some of this could brush KALB/KPSF, but most should remain just to the north. Additional light snow showers/flurries will be possible through the day, mainly impacting KGFL. Enough low level warming could allow for light rain or drizzle to occur at KALB/KPSF and KPOU this afternoon/evening. For tonight, some patchy drizzle will be possible, and can not rule out freezing drizzle at KGFL. As for overall flight conditions, mainly MVFR Cigs are expected through the day today, with embedded IFR possible, especially toward 00Z/Tue. For tonight, MVFR to IFR Cigs are expected, lowest at KGFL and KPSF. Vsbys should become MVFR this afternoon into tonight in BR and/or possible -DZ. Light/variable winds should trend into the south at 4-8 KT this afternoon, then become light/variable again after sunset. Outlook... Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN. Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHSN. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA...SN. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic problems are expected this week. Ice will continue to form on areas lakes and streams. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA/11 NEAR TERM...11/JVM SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...KL HYDROLOGY...IAA/11

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