Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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123 FXUS61 KALY 130521 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 121 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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Clear skies and light winds will support patchy fog tonight. Then, morning sun mixes with increasing clouds as temperatures turn warmer ahead of a warm front. Chances for showers return this afternoon into tonight with continued chances for some showers and possible thunderstorms lasting through Wednesday. Then, drier and seasonably warm conditions return late week.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
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.Update...As of 1 AM EDT...Latest water vapor imagery and RAP guidance indicate that upper level ridging building over the Northeast has resulted in mainly clear skies. Temperatures are responding to the clearing with many already in the low to mid 40s with parts of the southern Adirondacks already in the upper 30s. Favorable radiational cooling conditions continuing tonight will likely support patchy fog formation, especially towards the pre-dawn hours, thanks to weak winds, clear skies and moist ground conditions from the recent rain. While latest GOES16 night fog channel and METARs do not show any fog yet and BUFKIT soundings are not overly enthused about fog developing, temperatures are approaching their respective dew points that are still in the low 40s. Therefore, we continue to message fog in the latest update but have trimmed back the overall coverage. Fog could become locally dense in a few areas but should quickly burn off shortly after sun rise. Otherwise, we adjusted low temperatures downwards a few degrees since many sites are already approaching the predicted low temperatures. Expect morning lows to reach into the upper 30s to mid 40s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Dry weather will start the day on Monday with surface high pressure located just off the East Coast and flat upper-level ridging overhead. Some weak upper-level energy will track over the ridge late Monday morning through Monday night as a surface warm front approaches from the south and west. This will result in an increase in clouds and shower chances for Monday afternoon and Monday evening. Areas along and north of I-90 remain favored for this activity with decreasing chances farther south. Enough weak instability may be in place for a few rumbles of thunder. Monday will turn out to be a milder day with highs in the 60s to lower 70s. The warm front and best upper forcing will lift northward toward the St. Lawrence River later Monday night as upper-level heights begin to rise. This will also cause the shower activity to lift north of our region by later Monday night with a brief period of dry weather into Tuesday morning. A warm air advection regime will result in a milder night with lows in the upper 40s to mid-50s. A progressive positively tilted upper-level trough is expected to track from the Missouri Valley to the mid-Atlantic coast Tuesday through Wednesday. Upper-level forcing returns Tuesday afternoon and night as a cold front approaches from the west. Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are expected with our region placed in the warm sector of this system. Tuesday may turn out fairly warm prior to the arrival of rainfall with highs reaching the mid to upper 70s except upper 60s to lower 70s across the higher elevations. The cold front will slow its forward progress across the region on Wednesday as a low pressure system tracks northeastward just ahead of the front from the central Appalachians to the mid- Atlantic coast. This will bring continued rain chances through Wednesday with highs reaching the 60s to near 70. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The upper-level trough and surface low pressure system should depart the region to the east by later Wednesday night and Thursday as upper- level ridging and surface high pressure return. This will result in a drying trend for the later part of the week. Guidance then begins to diverge on the weather pattern heading into next weekend but it appears a return to unsettled weather is possible. We ran with the NBM pops during this time which bring them back into the chance range. Highs most days during the long term period will be in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s. && .AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 00z Tuesday...Currently seeing VFR conditions at all TAF sites which should continue through around midnight. Will see a trend for decreasing cloud cover during this timeframe, with cloud heights of around 3000-4000 ft. With the partial clearing, light winds, and wet ground conditions from today`s rain, patchy fog is expected to form tonight. Low confidence on the exact start time of fog, but highest probabilities for IFR or lower vsbys/cigs is from 8-11z at GFL/PSF. ALB/POU could certainly see IFR or lower conditions if fog develops, but confidence is lower at these sites especially since they saw less rain yesterday. Any fog should quickly burn off by 12z tomorrow morning. There could be a few clouds between 3000-4000 ft for a few hours between 12-15z tomorrow as the low-level moisture mixes out, but the general expectation is for VFR cigs and vsbys from 12z through mid afternoon. Another approaching upper disturbance and warm front will bring another chance for showers tomorrow afternoon and evening. Will handle this wit prob30 groups for MVFR vsbys/cigs in showers. VFR conditions still expected outside of any showers tomorrow afternoon. Winds will be at 5 kt or less from the south tonight, increasing to 5-10 kt from the south/southeast at ALB/GFL and 5-10 kt from the south/southwest at POU/PSF by mid-morning tomorrow and continuing through the end of the TAF period. A few gusts to around 15-20 kt are possible at ALB and PSF tomorrow afternoon. Outlook... Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Rathbun/Speciale NEAR TERM...Main/Rathbun/Speciale SHORT TERM...Rathbun LONG TERM...Rathbun AVIATION...Main