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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 172327
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
727 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE OVER
THE PLAINS AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER
THE REGION WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR AND WINDS CALM. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MAINTAINS CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THERE WILL BE SOME
OVERRUNNING MID/HI CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
FURTHER TO THE EAST...A SOUTHEAST FLOW OF MOIST AIR WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
WITH POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND 30
TO 40 PERCENT SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH PERIOD. FA WILL BE IN A
CONVERGENT AXIS BETWEEN UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST CANADA AND
RIDGING ACRS SOUTHEAST STATES. AS A RESULT A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE
PARKED ACRS OR JUST NORTH OF FA WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BEFORE SLIDING JUST SOUTHEAST OF FA
ON FRIDAY.

DESPITE THE RAIN EXPECT MILD TEMPS AS H8 TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TUESDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST
DAY. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S AS THE FRONT STARTS TO WORK SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACRS OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY.

SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SKC OVERNIGHT WITH JUST FEW-SCT 090-250 THIS
EVENING. ON SATURDAY EXPECT FEW-SCT 250 WITH BKN250 AT KPOU.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY
VARIABLE AT LESS THAN 6 KTS ON SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING...VFR...NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...VFR...ISOLD- SCT -SHRAS.
MON...VFR. SLIGHT CHC/CHC -SHRAS/-TSRAS.
TUE-WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRAS/-TSRAS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PER COORDINATION WITH OUR STATE PARTNERS...ALL AREAS HAVE REACHED
GREEN UP.

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WITH MAINLY CALM CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 80 AND 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...AND LOWER TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FLOWS
ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/11/WASULA
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...BGM
HYDROLOGY...BGM