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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 180541
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
140 AM EDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A TRANQUIL PERIOD OF WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE OVER
THE PLAINS AND THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH AN
INCREASING THREAT FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
A TRANQUIL OVERNIGHT UNDERWAY WITH HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWFA.  WHERE SKIES REMAIN CLEAR
THOSE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE GETTING CLOSE TO ZERO AND WE HAVE
ADDED SOME FOG ALONG THE HUDSON RIVER FROM GLENS FALLS TO
WHITEHALL.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.  CLOUDS
WILL MIX WITH SUN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MAINTAINS CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. THERE WILL BE SOME
OVERRUNNING MID/HI CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY. AS THE HIGH MOVES
FURTHER TO THE EAST...A SOUTHEAST FLOW OF MOIST AIR WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
WITH POPS OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND 30
TO 40 PERCENT SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH PERIOD. FA WILL BE IN A
CONVERGENT AXIS BETWEEN UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST CANADA AND
RIDGING ACRS SOUTHEAST STATES. AS A RESULT A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE
PARKED ACRS OR JUST NORTH OF FA WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG IT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD BEFORE SLIDING JUST SOUTHEAST OF FA
ON FRIDAY.

DESPITE THE RAIN EXPECT MILD TEMPS AS H8 TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TUESDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST
DAY. COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S AS THE FRONT STARTS TO WORK SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AT KALB/KPSF/KPOU THROUGH THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD AS MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE
REGION. FURTHER NORTH...THERE ARE LESS CLOUDS...AND THE CLEARER
SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS AT KGFL TO DROP QUICKLY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP THERE LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS
POINT...THE LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL AND LOW DEWPOINTS WOULD SUGGEST
THE FORMATION OF IFR FOG IS UNLIKELY.

AFTER SUNRISE...ALL SITES WILL BE VFR WITH JUST SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CIGS WILL LIKELY BECOME
BKN AT 5-8 KFT AT ALL SITES BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT-SUN MORNING...VFR...NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...VFR...ISOLD- SCT -SHRAS.
MON...VFR. SLIGHT CHC/CHC -SHRAS/-TSRAS.
TUE-WED...VFR/MVFR. CHC -SHRAS/-TSRAS.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PER COORDINATION WITH OUR STATE PARTNERS...ALL AREAS HAVE REACHED
GREEN UP.

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10 MPH ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WITH MAINLY CALM CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RECOVER TO BETWEEN 80 AND 100 PERCENT
TONIGHT...AND LOWER TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH FLOWS
ON AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BGM
AVIATION...FRUGIS