-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
857
FXUS61 KALY 122340
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
740 PM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will depart the region tonight with rain
showers ending along with partial clearing. Warmer weather
returns early this week with continued chances for some showers
and possible thunderstorms each day through midweek. Drier and
seasonable weather may return for late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
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.Update...As of 7:35 PM EDT...Mainly just minor forecast changes
with this update. Current satellite imagery is starting to show
some breaks in the cloud cover over eastern NY with more
clearing upstream, so cloud cover was trended downwards through
the next few hours from the previous forecast. Given the
clearing and relatively light winds tonight, also added mention
of patchy fog to the grids. Fog will be most prevalent in areas
that saw rain this afternoon, including the ADKs, upper Hudson
Valley, and southern VT/western MA. Still seeing some showers in
these aforementioned locations, but shower activity should
diminish within the next few hours with the loss of daytime
heating and the upper low tracking further to our east. Overall,
previous forecast therefore remains in good shape. For those
hoping to see the northern lights tonight, please refer to the
Space Weather Prediction Center (swpc.noaa.gov) for more info...

.Previous...Latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low
now positioned across eastern New England as the surface low
over central Pennsylvania dissipates. Continued upper-level
troughing overhead will result in some isolated to scattered
showers through the rest of the evening hours. Activity will be
most favored across far northern and eastern areas with some
isolated activity near the Hudson Valley.

Rising upper-level heights and surface high pressure
strengthening to our east will bring an end to showers this
evening with some partial clearing overnight, which may provide
some viewing conditions for tonight`s aurora. Visit the Space
Weather Prediction Center website for more information. Some
patchy fog may also develop along some of the river valleys
where the more persistent clearing occurs. Lows will fall back
into the upper 30s to mid-40s.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry weather will start the day on Monday with surface high
pressure located just off the East Coast and flat upper-level
ridging overhead. Some weak upper-level energy will track over
the ridge late Monday morning through Monday night as a surface
warm front approaches from the south and west. This will result
in an increase in clouds and shower chances for Monday afternoon
and Monday evening. Areas along and north of I-90 remain
favored for this activity with decreasing chances farther south.
Enough weak instability may be in place for a few rumbles of
thunder. Monday will turn out to be a milder day with highs in
the 60s to lower 70s.

The warm front and best upper forcing will lift northward toward
the St. Lawrence River later Monday night as upper-level
heights begin to rise. This will also cause the shower activity
to lift north of our region by later Monday night with a brief
period of dry weather into Tuesday morning. A warm air advection
regime will result in a milder night with lows in the upper 40s
to mid-50s.

A progressive positively tilted upper-level trough is expected
to track from the Missouri Valley to the mid-Atlantic coast
Tuesday through Wednesday. Upper-level forcing returns Tuesday
afternoon and night as a cold front approaches from the west.
Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are expected with our
region placed in the warm sector of this system. Tuesday may
turn out fairly warm prior to the arrival of rainfall with highs
reaching the mid to upper 70s except upper 60s to lower 70s
across the higher elevations.

The cold front will slow its forward progress across the region
on Wednesday as a low pressure system tracks northeastward just
ahead of the front from the central Appalachians to the mid-
Atlantic coast. This will bring continued rain chances through
Wednesday with highs reaching the 60s to near 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The upper-level trough and surface low pressure system should
depart the region to the east by later Wednesday night and
Thursday as upper- level ridging and surface high pressure
return. This will result in a drying trend for the later part of
the week. Guidance then begins to diverge on the weather
pattern heading into next weekend but it appears a return to
unsettled weather is possible. We ran with the NBM pops during
this time which bring them back into the chance range. Highs
most days during the long term period will be in the 60s and 70s
with lows in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Through 00z Tuesday...Currently seeing VFR conditions at all TAF
sites which should continue through around midnight. Will see a
trend for decreasing cloud cover during this timeframe, with
cloud heights of around 3000-4000 ft. With the partial clearing,
light winds, and wet ground conditions from today`s rain, patchy
fog is expected to form tonight. Low confidence on the exact
start time of fog, but highest probabilities for IFR or lower
vsbys/cigs is from 8-11z at GFL/PSF. ALB/POU could certainly
see IFR or lower conditions if fog develops, but confidence is
lower at these sites especially since they saw less rain
yesterday.

Any fog should quickly burn off by 12z tomorrow morning. There
could be a few clouds between 3000-4000 ft for a few hours
between 12-15z tomorrow as the low-level moisture mixes out, but
the general expectation is for VFR cigs and vsbys from 12z
through mid afternoon. Another approaching upper disturbance and
warm front will bring another chance for showers tomorrow
afternoon and evening. Will handle this wit prob30 groups for
MVFR vsbys/cigs in showers. VFR conditions still expected
outside of any showers tomorrow afternoon.

Winds will be at 5 kt or less from the south tonight, increasing
to 5-10 kt from the south/southeast at ALB/GFL and 5-10 kt from
the south/southwest at POU/PSF by mid-morning tomorrow and
continuing through the end of the TAF period. A few gusts to
around 15-20 kt are possible at ALB and PSF tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
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&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Main/Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Rathbun
AVIATION...Main