-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 170551
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
151 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION TO START THE WEEK...AND
THEN ONLY SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP OUR WEATHER PATTERN A LITTLE UNSETTLED WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUR WEATHER IMPROVES FOR THE
MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN WITH DRIER AND
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 100 AM...KENX AND KTYX RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW ISOLATED TO SCT
SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW TSTMS FROM THE ALBANY AREA WEST/NORTHWEST
TOWARDS LAKE ONTARIO. THE MAIN THRUST OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE
DOWN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND THEN
TOWARDS BERKSHIRE COUNTY. WILL INCLUDE A 30 POP FOR THESE AREAS...
AND SLIGHT CHANCE OR DRY POPS ELSEWHERE. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY AND MIN TEMP GRIDS. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO
BE BETWEEN 50 AND 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS/ECMWF FOR THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

A CLOSER LOOK AT THE H2O VAPOR LOOP REVEALS A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. A FEW UPSTREAM WAVES...ONE
APPROACHING THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA...ONE JUST SOUTH OF LAKE
WINNIPEG AND THE OTHER IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY...
WILL ACT IN TANDEM TO BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE NAM WANTS TO BREAK THE PATTERN RATHER QUICKLY AS THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND ITS ENSEMBLES FAVOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION AND WAS
FOLLOWED FOR THIS FORECAST.

MONDAY...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AXIS WITHIN A WARM SECTOR MAY
DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION BUT SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS RATHER LIMITED.
COMBINATION OF SBCAPES LESS THAN 1K J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES OF
20-30KTS SUGGEST SUB-SEVERE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...BEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE FIELDS ARE NORTH OF I90 AND THIS IS WHERE WE WILL
PLACE THE HIGHER POPS. SINCE WE SHOULD SEE SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE COOLER SIDE OF THE MOS
GUIDANCE.

MONDAY NIGHT...THOSE AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM WAVES CONTINUE TO
APPROACH WITH DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS /IE OUR REGION/ KEEPS THE UPPER
FLOW RATHER ZONAL. THIS WILL LIKELY SLOWLY DOWN THE SURFACE FRONT
FURTHER /NON-NAM SOLUTION/ TO KEEP OUR PATTERN RATHER UNSETTLED
WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND STILL THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
THERE COULD BE MORE PROBLEMATIC ISSUES WITH FOG BUT THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO LIMIT WIDESPREAD FOG SO WE WILL
WATCH TRENDS. GUIDANCE NUMBERS THIS TIME FRAME ARE FAIRLY CLOSE
AND A BLENDED APPROACH WAS UTILIZED WITH MAINLY 50S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

TUESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF THE UPSTREAM WAVES AND SURFACE COLD
WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR DEEPER
CONVECTION. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION WE RECEIVE WHICH APPEARS LIMITED AT THIS
TIME. IF THERE IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY...SOUTH OF I90 WOULD BE
THE HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR STRONGER STORMS. IN COLLABORATION WITH
SPC...WE WILL KEEP THREAT OF SEVERE POPS AT OR BELOW 5%. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE INTO THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT.

THE 12Z GFS INDICATED LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY...BRINGING INITIALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER
BUT DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE SATURDAY. AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE
COAST...TEMPERATURES WOULD SLOWLY MODERATE.

WHILE THE 12Z EUROPEAN (ECMWF) AND CANADIAN (CMC) LONG RANGE MODELS
KEEP US DRY...BOTH INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SLIDING TO OUR SOUTH BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE CMC BROUGHT
RAIN RIGHT TO ABOUT THE I-84 AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE SQUELCHED IT FURTHER SOUTH.

IF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WERE TO BECOME SHARPEN AND MORE
DEFINED...THERE WOULD BE AN OUTSIDE CHANCE LOW PRESSURE COULD REACH
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING SOME RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO MUCH OF OUR
REGION BUT AT THIS TIME WE LEAN AGAINST THIS SOLUTION.
HOWEVER...THIS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AND THERE IS A CHANCE THE
CONFIGURATION COULD CHANGE A LITTLE BY THEN.

BY NEXT SUNDAY...ALL MODELS HAVE THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WELL OFF
SHORE AND A WARM FRONT COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS BACK TO THE
REGION...MAYBE EVEN THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD LOOK TO AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL. PRECIPITATION MIGHT ACTUALLY ENDING UP BEING A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL AS WELL.

LOOK FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD ACTUALLY DIP INTO THE 40S
REGIONWIDE. HIGHS WILL MODERATE TO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 BY FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 50 NORTH TO LOWER 60S
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VARYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING.

PARTIAL CLEARING AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD
TO OCCASIONAL FOG WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL. SOME FLUCTUATIONS
HAVE BEEN OCCURRING...SO WILL MENTION IFR IN A TEMPO. TRICKY CALL AT
KALB...WHERE A FEW SHOWERS WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS ARE MOVING THROUGH
JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINAL. EXPECT THE BRUNT OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
TO STAY AWAY FROM KALB...BUT A LIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 07Z.
SINCE THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS LOW...WILL ONLY
MENTION MVFR CONDITIONS IN A TEMPO. SHOULD A HEAVIER SHOWER DEVELOP
THERE...THE CHANCES FOR IFR FOG DEVELOPING LATER WOULD INCREASE DUE
TO ADDED GROUND MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT KPOU...OTHERWISE
NOT MUCH EXPECTED THERE. MORE CHALLENGING FORECAST FOR KPSF WITH
BREAKS IN CLOUDS AND WINDS MAINLY CALM...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME IFR CONDITIONS THERE AFTER 07Z. WILL MENTION A TEMPO FOR IFR.

ALL SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY 11Z-12Z. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ALONG WITH BUILDING INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
TSRA ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL
MENTION PROB30 FOR TSRA STARTING FROM EITHER 18Z-19Z. BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY TSRA...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST
AROUND 7-10 KT BY AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD BE BRIEFLY GUSTS IN AND
NEAR ANY TSRA.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. CHC EVE SHRA/TSRA. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR IN FOG.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-FRI...VFR. NO SIG WX.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WET PATTERN SINCE LATE MAY.

THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SOUTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.

DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOWS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID JUNE ACROSS THE HYDRO SERVICE
AREA. MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE HOUSATONIC
BASIN IN NW CT FROM THE HEAVY RAINFALL A FEW DAYS AGO.

RAINFALL TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR LESS WITH EVEN LOWER VALUES SOUTH OF I90.

QPF WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID WEEK
ALLOWING RIVERS TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE VERY WET
WEATHER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...GJM/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM