National Weather Service Text Product Display

Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Versions: 1 2 3
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FGUS71 KALY 051539
ESFALY
NYC001-021-027-035-039-041-043-057-083-091-093-095-
111-113-115-VTC003-25-MAC003-CTC005-090041-


WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1039 AM EST FRI FEB 05 2010

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK 3 FOR EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

THIS IS THE THIRD OF A SERIES OF HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EVERY TWO WEEKS...WHICH REFERS TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE...SOUTHERN
VERMONT...BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASSACHUSETTS...AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY
CONNECTICUT. THE MAJOR RIVER BASINS IN THIS AREA ARE THE
HUDSON...THE MOHAWK...AND THE HOUSATONIC.

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR THE TWO-WEEK PERIOD FEBRUARY 5TH TO
FEBRUARY 19TH 2010.

POTENTIAL...THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FOR THE WINTER AND SPRING OF
2010 IS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...THE
POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAM FLOODING ON THE LOWER MOHAWK RIVER NEAR
CLIFTON PARK...NISKAYUNA AND COLONIE IS ABOVE NORMAL.

SNOW PACK CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR SNOWMELT FLOODING...AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...THE SNOWPACK IS NEAR NORMAL. IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...THE SNOWPACK IS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...GROUND FROST...AND RUNOFF POTENTIAL...
SOILS ARE WET FROM THE THAW THAT OCCURRED AROUND JANUARY 25TH. HERE
AT ALBANY NEW YORK...WE MEASURED THE GROUND FROZEN TO A DEPTH OF 22
INCHES ON FEBRUARY 4TH. AT POWNAL VERMONT...WHERE THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER...THE FROST DEPTH WAS 9 INCHES. RUNOFF
POTENTIAL IS HIGH DUE TO FROZEN GROUND AND WET SOILS FROM THE THAW
AROUND JANUARY 25TH.

RIVER FLOWS AND ICE CONDITIONS...FLOWS IN AREA RIVERS ARE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. MOST RIVER ICE COVER WAS FLUSHED OUT OF THE
RIVERS DURING THE THAW AROUND JANUARY 25TH. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT
ICE COVER REMAINS ON THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER AND ON THE LOWER MOHAWK
RIVER BETWEEN CRESCENT AND VISHER FERRY. RIVER ICE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE DURING THE NEXT TWO WEEKS DUE TO COLD WEATHER.

RESERVOIR AND LAKE LEVELS...RESERVOIR LEVELS ARE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS IS DUE TO STORAGE OF RUNOFF FROM THE THAW
AROUND JANUARY 25TH. RESERVOIRS USED FOR WATER SUPPLY AND POWER ARE
USUALLY FULL OR NEARLY SO...WHILE THOSE OPERATED PRIMARILY FOR FLOOD
CONTROL ARE USUALLY NEARLY EMPTY.

TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION...OBSERVED JANUARY TEMPERATURES
AVERAGED ABOVE NORMAL. OBSERVED JANUARY PRECIPITATION WAS BELOW
NORMAL. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST...FOR THE NEXT TWO
WEEKS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WHILE
PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR NORMAL. THE 90 DAY OUTLOOK
ENDING MAY 6TH CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

THE THIRD SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR FRIDAY...FEBRUARY
5TH 2010. EXTENDED HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AS NECESSARY. OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER
INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT OUR WEB PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.

&&

RIVER ICE AND FROST DEPTH REPORTS ARE ALWAYS WELCOME. THEY CAN BE
SENT TO ALB.STORMREPORT@NOAA.GOV.

ESTIMATED BASIN AVERAGE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ON FEBRUARY 5TH 2010.
THIS DATA IS FROM THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING
CENTER AT WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV

MOOSE RIVER ABOVE MCKEEVER...4.49 INCHES
SACANDAGA RIVER ABOVE HOPE...3.43 INCHES
SACANDAGA BASIN ABOVE GREAT SACANDAGA LAKE...1.45 INCHES
INDIAN RIVER ABOVE INDIAN LAKE...3.67 INCHES
HUDSON RIVER ABOVE NORTH CREEK...3.13 INCHES
HUDSON RIVER ABOVE FORT EDWARD...0.58 INCHES
MOHAWK RIVER ABOVE LAKE DELTA...2.00 INCHES
WEST CANADA CREEK ABOVE HINCKLEY...3.55 INCHES
MOHAWK RIVER ABOVE LITTLE FALLS...0.80 INCHES
EAST CANADA CREEK ABOVE EAST CREEK...2.57 INCHES
SCHOHARIE CREEK ABOVE PRATTSVILLE...1.76 INCHES
BATTENKILL ABOVE ARLINGTON...2.69 INCHES
BATTENKILL ABOVE BATTENVILLE...0.84 INCHES
WILLIAMS RIVER ABOVE ROCKINGHAM...2.64 INCHES
WALLOOMSAC RIVER ABOVE BENNINGTON...1.86 INCHES
HOOSIC RIVER ABOVE WILLIAMSTOWN...2.96 INCHES
HOOSIC RIVER ABOVE EAGLE BRIDGE...1.49 INCHES
ESOPUS CREEK ABOVE ASHOKAN RESERVOIR...2.3 INCHES
RONDOUT CREEK ABOVE RONDOUT RESERVOIR...1.0 INCHES
HOUSATONIC RIVER ABOVE GREAT BARRINGTON...2.26 INCHES
HOUSATONIC RIVER ABOVE FALLS VILLAGE...0.78 INCHES

$$
National Weather Service National Headquarters
