Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4
000
FGUS71 KALY 040010
ESFALY

NYC001-021-027-035-039-041-043-057-083-091-093-095-111-113-115-VTC003
-25-MAC003-CTC005-160000-


WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
810 PM EDT THU APR 03 2014

...WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK 7 FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

THIS IS THE SEVENTH OF A SERIES OF HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EVERY TWO WEEKS...WHICH REFERS TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE...SOUTHERN
VERMONT...BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASSACHUSETTS...AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY
CONNECTICUT. THE MAJOR RIVER BASINS IN THIS AREA ARE THE
HUDSON...THE MOHAWK...AND THE HOUSATONIC.

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR THE TWO-WEEK PERIOD APRIL 3RD TO APRIL
17TH 2014.

FLOOD POTENTIAL...
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWMELT AND ICE JAM FLOODING FOR THE SPRING OF
2014 IS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA...DUE TO A COMBINATION
OF ABOVE NORMAL SNOWPACK AND RIVER ICE EXTENT IN THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK AREA...AND WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS TO THE
SOUTH. THE FIRST HALF OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED...AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING WITH A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

SNOW PACK CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR SNOWMELT FLOODING...
SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS OF
VERMONT ARE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH LITTLE SNOW
LEFT IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE CATSKILLS...AND ESSENTIALLY
BARE GROUND LEFT ELSEWHERE. A FEW SCATTERED SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS
OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WERE MEASURED IN THE CATSKILLS. ACROSS SOUTHERN
VERMONT...SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGED FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES. THE BIG
WINNER FOR SNOW WATER REMAINING IN PLACE ARE THE ADIRONDACKS...WITH
MEASURED EQUIVALENTS GENERALLY BETWEEN 2 AND 9 INCHES. SNOWPACK
TEMPERATURES HAVE RECENTLY RISEN TO NEAR 32 DEGREES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...RIPENING THE PACK FOR POTENTIAL MELTING.

SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA ARE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SNOWPACK IS MUCH DIMINISHED IN VALLEY
LOCATIONS...HOWEVER NEAR NORMAL SNOW PACK REMAINS AT ELEVATION
ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...BERKSHIRES...AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.
BELOW NORMAL SNOW PACK IS PRESENT IN THE CATSKILL MOUNTAINS. SNOW
DEPTHS FROM ONE AND A HALF TO TWO FEET ARE PRESENT IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...WITH 1 TO 16 INCHES PRESENT IN
THE CATSKILL MOUNTAINS. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA RANGE FROM NIL IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS UP TO SEVEN INCHES IN
THE ADIRONDACKS. SELECTED BASIN AVERAGE EQUIVALENTS AS OF MARCH 20TH
ARE LISTED BELOW. FOR THE LATEST SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS CHECK
WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...AND RUNOFF POTENTIAL...
SOIL MOISTURE IS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...RUNOFF POTENTIAL IS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

RIVER FLOWS AND ICE CONDITIONS...
FLOWS IN AREA RIVERS ARE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL AFTER THE WEEKEND
PRECIPITATION EVENT. RIVER ICE CONDITIONS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I90
CORRIDOR HAVE GENERALLY PASSED DUE TO STRONGER MARCH SUN AND SOME
ABOVE FREEZING DAYS. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS IN THE
ADIRONDACKS...INCLUDING THE UPPER HUDSON RIVER...HAVE PLENTY OF ICE
STILL IN PLACE...ONE TO TWO FEET IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH SNOW PACK IN
PLACE ON TOP OF THE ICE. WHILE THIS IS STARTING TO WEAKEN IN PLACE
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...THIS LEAVES THE ICE JAM POTENTIAL
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

RESERVOIR AND LAKE LEVELS...
RESERVOIRS ARE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO
MOISTURE STILL TIED UP IN SNOW PACK. NYC DEP RESERVOIRS ARE AT 91.3
PERCENT OF CAPACITY...WHICH IS 2.6 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL.

TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION...
OVER THE LAST 14 DAYS...FROM MARCH 20TH THROUGH APRIL
2ND...TEMPERATURES HAVE AVERAGED WELL BELOW NORMAL AND PRECIPITATION
HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SINCE THE FIRST OF THE
YEAR...TEMPERATURES HAVE AVERAGED FOUR TO EIGHT DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
AND PRECIPITATION HAS AVERAGED THREE INCHES PLUS OR MINUS NORMAL.

TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APRIL
11TH THROUGH THE 17TH CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. ONE ROUND OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS
LIKELY FROM FRIDAY...APRIL 4TH THROUGH THE MORNING OF THE 5TH...WITH
A SECOND ROUND OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED SOMETIME MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THE 7TH...THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. NO MAJOR HYDROLOGIC
ACTIVITY IS FORECAST WITH THE FIRST ROUND...HOWEVER THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY ON THE AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND ROUND...AND
FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN PRODUCE FLOODING
ANY TIME OF THE YEAR.

THE EIGHTH WINTER SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR
THURSDAY...APRIL 17TH 2014. EXTENDED HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION WILL BE
INCLUDED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WHEN NECESSARY...AND
IMMINENT OR OCCURRING FLOODING WILL BE ADDRESSED WITH FLOOD
WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES AS NECESSARY.

OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT OUR WEB
PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY.

&&

ESTIMATED BASIN AVERAGE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ON APRIL 3 2014.
THIS DATA IS FROM THE NATIONAL OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC REMOTE SENSING
CENTER AT WWW.NOHRSC.NWS.GOV

SACANDAGA RIVER ABOVE HOPE...6.43 INCHES
SACANDAGA BASIN ABOVE GREAT SACANDAGA LAKE...3.81 INCHES
INDIAN RIVER ABOVE INDIAN LAKE...7.67 INCHES
HUDSON RIVER ABOVE NORTH CREEK...6.96 INCHES
HUDSON RIVER ABOVE FORT EDWARD...1.97 INCHES
WEST CANADA CREEK ABOVE HINCKLEY...5.72 INCHES
MOHAWK RIVER ABOVE LITTLE FALLS...1.06 INCHES
EAST CANADA CREEK ABOVE EAST CREEK...4.33 INCHES
SCHOHARIE CREEK ABOVE PRATTSVILLE...1.85 INCHES
BATTENKILL ABOVE ARLINGTON...3.14 INCHES
BATTENKILL ABOVE BATTENVILLE...1.51 INCHES
WILLIAMS RIVER ABOVE ROCKINGHAM...5.21 INCHES
WALLOOMSAC RIVER ABOVE BENNINGTON...2.53 INCHES
HOOSIC RIVER ABOVE WILLIAMSTOWN...2.61 INCHES
HOOSIC RIVER ABOVE EAGLE BRIDGE...1.26 INCHES
ESOPUS CREEK ABOVE ASHOKAN RESERVOIR...0.61 INCHES
RONDOUT CREEK ABOVE RONDOUT RESERVOIR...1.03 INCHES
HOUSATONIC RIVER ABOVE GREAT BARRINGTON...1.99 INCHES

$$

BEW















USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.