Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FGUS71 KALY 222040
ESFALY
NYC001-021-027-035-039-041-043-057-083-091-093-095-
111-113-115-VTC003-25-MAC003-CTC005-042300-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
340 PM EST THU JAN 22 2015

...WINTER SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK 2 FOR EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...

THIS IS THE SECOND OF A SERIES OF HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EVERY TWO WEEKS...WHICH REFERS TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE...SOUTHERN
VERMONT...BERKSHIRE COUNTY MASSACHUSETTS...AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY
CONNECTICUT. THE MAJOR RIVER BASINS IN THIS AREA ARE THE
HUDSON...THE MOHAWK...AND THE HOUSATONIC.

THIS OUTLOOK IS VALID FOR THE TWO WEEK PERIOD JANUARY 22 TO
FEBRUARY 5 2015.

OVERVIEW...

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE WINTER AND SPRING OF 2015 IS GENERALLY
BELOW NORMAL AT THIS TIME. SNOWPACK IS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR AND A WARM START TO THE WINTER HAS LED TO BELOW NORMAL RIVER
ICE AS WELL...THOUGH ICE THICKNESSES AND COVER ARE INCREASING.

OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

SNOW DEPTHS MEASURED BY PARTNERS ON THIS WEEKS SNOW SURVEY RANGE
FROM NIL TO SIX INCHES WITH AN ISOLATED 14 INCHES ACROSS THE
CATSKILL MOUNTAINS TO BETWEEN 5 INCHES AND A FOOT AND A HALF IN THE
ADIRONDACK AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. ONE TO 8 INCHES WERE
MEASURED IN THE BERKSHIRES AND NIL UP TO AN ISOLATED 2 INCHES WAS
MEASURED IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY CONNECTICUT. VALLEY LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE SERVICE AREA WERE NEARLY SNOW FREE.

LIKEWISE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGED FROM NIL IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY
TO ZERO TO TWO INCHES IN THE CATSKILLS AND FROM TWO TO FOUR INCHES
IN THE ADIRONDACK AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

RIVER FLOWS AND ICE CONDITIONS...

FLOWS IN AREA RIVERS ARE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE WET START
TO THE WINTER. THE MILD TEMPERATURES IN DECEMBER LED TO BELOW NORMAL
RIVER ICE COVER AND THICKNESS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...HOWEVER BELOW
NORMAL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SINCE THE BEGINNING OF
JANUARY HAVE HELPED RIVER ICE THICKNESS AND COVER TO INCREASE. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD WILL ALLOW RIVER ICE TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE.

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS AND WATER SUPPLY...

PRECIPITATION SINCE THE BEGINNING OF JANUARY HAS BEEN WITHIN AN INCH
OF NORMAL IN EITHER DIRECTION. AS A RESULT NEAR NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE
PREVAILS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

NEW YORK CITY WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIRS ARE AT 79 PERCENT OF CAPACITY
AS OF JANUARY 8. THIS IS SEVEN PERCENT BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HUDSON RIVER-BLACK RIVER REGULATING DISTRICT RESERVOIRS ARE
NEAR TARGET LEVELS FOR THIS DATE.

TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

ANY PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS FOR THE REST OF THE OUTLOOK PERIOD
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. THIS SNOW WILL HAVE NO
IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS DUE TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES PREVENTING MELT.

THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JANUARY
29TH THROUGH FEBRUARY 4TH CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

SUMMARY...

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS CALLS FOR A BELOW NORMAL
POTENTIAL FOR SNOWMELT FLOODING DUE TO BELOW NORMAL SNOW PACK AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

ICE FORMATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND EVEN INCREASE ACROSS AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS. SOME INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF FREEZE UP ICE
JAMS IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THE ICE BUILDUP IS EXPECTED TO BE
GRADUAL.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN PRODUCE FLOODING
AT ANY TIME OF YEAR EVEN IN AREAS THAT HAVE A BELOW NORMAL POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING.

THE THIRD WINTER SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR THURSDAY...
FEBRUARY 5TH. EXTENDED HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION WILL BE INCLUDED
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WHEN NECESSARY.

OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON OUR WEB
PAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY.

$$

BEW






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