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508
FXUS64 KAMA 041907
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
207 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
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(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Low clouds are trying to break up across much of the area, but
not expecting much of a warmup across the area. In fact, even the
NBM 10th percentile highs are too warm across portions of the area
that are currently cloudy. Highs today may not reach 60 degrees for
Amarillo and surrounding areas, but highs in the 60s can be expected
in the northwest and southeast where clouds are not as widespread.
Rain and embedded thunderstorms may work up to the Panhandles later
today, but thinking that they may merely clip southern or
southeasterly TX Panhandle this evening, and maybe some showers may
grace the western Panhandles. NBM seems to be running quite hot with
the PoPs again, with 50-80% across much of the area tonight. Have
significant doubts about that. As such, have dropped PoPs to 15-25%
at most for the central and northern Panhandles, while generally
leaving PoPs for the periphery of the Panhandles. Rain chances exit
the Panhandles Sunday morning.

Sunday, a large upper-level trough moves toward the Panhandles,
skies clear, 850mb temperatures warm, and surface winds turn
southerly and breezy. All of these factors point toward highs
returning to the 70s to near-80. Winds strengthen overnight to 20-30
mph with gusts up to 40 mph as a surface low develops and rapidly
strengthens in eastern Colorado.

Vanden Bosch
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&&

.LONG TERM ...
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(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 206 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

A mostly dry forecast throughout the majority of the forecast
period. The only chances for some rain and or thunderstorms will
be on Monday and potentially on Friday. Starting on Monday, latest
04/12Z model and numerical guidance shows an occluded stacked low
pressure system over the norther High Plains. Further south
across the Panhandles, a sfc dryline will develop and with gusty
WSW sfc winds, the dryline should quickly move to the east
throughout the day. If any adjustments to the track of the main
low and/or winds behind the dryline become weaker, the dryline by
Monday afternoon may linger more in the eastern Panhandles. As of
right now the far eastern combined Panhandles will have the best
chance to stay along or east of the dryline by MOnday afternoon.
Ingredients will be there for all hazards for severe thunderstorms
potential if storms do develop. WInds behind the dryline based off
the latest probs have decreased in model runs over the past few
hours. We will still be monitoring the potential for some wind
headlines and fire weather conditions, but domain coverage could
be more limited compared to previous model runs. Highs on Monday
will range from upper 70s in the west to upper 80s in the east.

Zonal flow and dry conditions should resume through the middle of
the week for all of the Panhandles. A cold front should drop high
temperatures from above average of Tuesday and Wednesday, back to
near average by Thursday. A perturbation in H500 WNW flow may
bring a slight chance (~ 20%) to the western Panhandles by the
end of the forecast period. Highs on Friday will remain cool with
temperatures below average for early May.

Meccariello
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&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

MVFR ceilings are being observed at KAMA and KDHT, but ceilings
should rise to VFR this afternoon. Showers and an isolated
thunderstorm are possible this evening but confidence is too low
to include in the TAFs at this time. Otherwise... MVFR ceilings are
expected to return tonight with IFR ceilings possible. Highest
confidence in IFR ceilings is at KAMA which has been included in
the TAF, while lower confidence in IFR ceilings at KDHT and KGUY
precludes mention in the TAFs at this time.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                51  74  57  83 /  60  20  10  10
Beaver OK                  48  74  56  86 /  30  30  10  20
Boise City OK              44  75  55  78 /  10  10   0   0
Borger TX                  53  78  59  87 /  50  30  10  10
Boys Ranch TX              51  79  59  83 /  50  20  10   0
Canyon TX                  51  74  57  83 /  70  20  10   0
Clarendon TX               52  70  58  86 /  80  20  20  20
Dalhart TX                 47  75  54  80 /  30  20   0   0
Guymon OK                  46  75  55  82 /  20  20  10  10
Hereford TX                51  77  58  83 /  60  10  10   0
Lipscomb TX                51  74  57  87 /  60  30  10  20
Pampa TX                   51  73  58  84 /  60  30  10  10
Shamrock TX                52  71  57  87 /  80  30  20  30
Wellington TX              54  72  58  87 /  90  20  20  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...52