Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 252141
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
341 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE WARMING TREND HAS STARTED FOR THE PANHANDLES AND PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE CONTINUES TO MELT THE SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. LOCATIONS THAT
STILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT SNOW COVER INCLUDING AMARILLO...HAVE STRUGGLED
TO REACH MUCH ABOVE THE 50 DEGREE MARK. MEANWHILE..THE OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLES HAVE NEARED OR SURPASSED 60 DEGREES. FOR
TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES FALL
INTO THE 30S AREA WIDE.

FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED WITH A WARMING TREND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS A DRY
PATTERN REMAINS. HIGHS WILL BE A GOOD 10 TO EVEN 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THIS 3 DAY PERIOD ESPECIALLY ONCE ALL THE SNOW
MELTS...IF NOT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...DEFINITELY BY TUESDAY. WITH THAT
SAID...HAVE STRUCTURED HIGH TEMPERATURES TO EXHIBIT COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE SNOW PACK...BUT THINK BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...70S WILL BE FAIR GAME FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUING.

NEXT BIG PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODEL AGREEMENT IS SOMEWHAT MESSY RIGHT NOW...BUT GENERALLY
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE GETS CAUGHT UNDERNEATH THIS RIDGE. WHEN THIS
HAPPENS...CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF WHEN THIS UPPER LOW EJECTS
EAST IS OFTEN LOW...BUT DO THINK THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
PRECIPITATION...LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND.

WITH THIS CURRENT ADVERTISED SET UP...IT ACTUALLY LOOKS LIKE MORE OF
AN OVER-RUNNING SITUATION WHERE WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING WITH MOSTLY RAIN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND A CHANGEOVER
TO RAIN/SNOW OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPES ON SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TEMPERATURES BUT A
RAIN/SNOW CHANGING OVER TO MOSTLY SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED FOR NOW.
THERE IS STILL CONCERN THAT THIS LOW TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH KEEPING THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SOUTH TOO. SOMETHING TO DEFINITELY KEEP AN
EYE ON OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THESE TYPES OF DISTURBANCES/LOWS
CAUGHT UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE ARE QUITE DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE FOR THE
MODELS.

KH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                34  62  35  70  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  38  70  35  75  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              33  68  35  73  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  36  66  37  72  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              32  62  33  68  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  32  62  34  67  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               36  68  39  73  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 30  62  29  69  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  34  69  33  74  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                30  61  33  68  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                37  70  35  75  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   31  66  37  72  44 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                37  69  37  74  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              41  70  39  75  46 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$




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