Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 222309
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
609 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS STARTING OUT FOR THE 00Z TAFS BUT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE BETWEEN NOW AND 06Z. LINGERING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WE LOOSE
HEATING...BUT KAMA AND KGUY HAVE A CHANCE TO BE IMPACTED EARLY ON IN
THIS TAF CYCLE. AFTER SUNDOWN...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
IMPACT THE TERMINALS. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP BETWEEN 1SM AND 2SM
BUT COULD DROP BELOW 1SM. THIS FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL 16Z TOMORROW
WHEN LOW LEVEL MIXING INCREASES. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST AFTER
THIS POINT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL ELONGATED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES NOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SWEEP THE PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE PANHANDLES TONIGHT.
FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES GIVEN THE WET
GROUND AND LIGHT WINDS. THE FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID DAY THURSDAY...
LEAVING MAINLY SUNNY SKIES BEHIND.

A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.  THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL THEN PUSH OFF TO THE EAST TO ALLOW A FAST MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. AND INTO THE PLAINS BY
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA...BUT THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON WHETHER IT WILL BRING RAIN
TO THE REGION OR NOT. MODELS ARE AGAIN AT ODDS ON HOW STRONG THIS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE MODELS START TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE NO MATTER WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT
FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

99/14





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