Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 192312

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
612 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

00Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through 00Z
Friday. South to southwest winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts
occasionally gusting to near 25 knots will diminish to around 5 to
15 knots after 01Z to 02Z Thursday and then increasing again after
14Z to 15Z Thursday to 15 to 25 knots with gusts near 30 knots.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 246 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017/

Upper level ridge over the south central part of the U.S. will keep
the Panhandles under an east to southeast flow aloft. This flow will
keep any mountain convection to our west. A renegade shower or
thunderstorm may develop during any afternoon through the end of the
work week just due to the instability from the heating of the day
along with some low level moisture. At this time, it would be tough
to pinpoint just where a shower or thunderstorm may develop at any
given time, so will keep the forecast dry for now.

The upper ridge then moves back to the west and it will take up
residence over the Great Basin from Saturday through the end of this
forecast. The upper flow over the Panhandles will become more
northwesterly Saturday through the end of this forecast with the
center of the ridge to our west. This flow will open the door for
mountain convection to move this way each day. Also, an upper level
short wave trough is expected to move through the flow and across
the Panhandles Sunday night into Monday which will help to enhance
rain chances. The flow aloft will not be that strong, so shear is
not expected to be that great. However, daytime heating will combine
with low level moisture to increase the instability across the
region. Heavy rain, which could lead to localized flooding will be
possible with the slower moving more intense thunderstorms.

Temperatures are expected to be above normal through the end of the
work week into the early part of the weekend. Then temperatures may
be around normal or slightly below for Sunday through the end of the
forecast given the better chances of rain and potential cloud cover.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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