Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 261748 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1248 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO SHAVE SOME POPS IN THE NORTHEAST AND TO
BUMP UP POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST. COLD FRONT IS MOVING WESTWARD AND IT
IS NOW MOVING INTO OLDHAM AND DEAF SMITH COUNTIES. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE WEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. SO
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTHWESTWARD. WE
ARE LOOKING TOWARD THE WEST AND KEEPING OUR EYE ON ANY VORT MAXES
THAT ARE ROTATING THIS WAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO UPPER LOW.
THE LATEST GFS MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE NEXT 6
HOURS. SO HAVE MOVED THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY STILL BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT BELIEVE THAT THE
BEST CHANCE HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW ROLLING PLAINS. MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTH AND THE PANHANDLES ARE
IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE NORTH OF IT. HAVE CONSIDERED ISSUING A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...BUT WANTED TO WAIT TO
SEE HOW THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WAS GOING TO EVOLVE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL
TERMINAL SITES DURG THIS FCST CYCLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AT ALL TAF
SITES DURG THE NEXT 24 HOURS...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW ON TIMING OF
THE VARIOUS WEATHER ELEMENTS. AS A RESULT...AMENDMENTS OR SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TAFS WILL BE PSBL AS THIS EVENT UNFOLDS TODAY.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 512 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A WET ENDING TO THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED...AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. A FRONT CURRENTLY
DRAPED OVER THE EASTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE IS BRINGING IN LOW CLOUDS
AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S WITH NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA AND
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER THIS MORNING.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW...SO HAVE DROPPED HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUDINESS. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT DROPS INTO THE PANHANDLES AND THE RESULTANT AREA OF
INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE FOR CONVECTION TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NAM THE FASTEST WITH THE FRONT...DROPPING IT WELL INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 00Z MONDAY AND ALSO SHOWING THE
STRONGEST GRADIENT OF DEWPOINTS ALONG THE DRYLINE. AREAS TO THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE PANHANDLES WILL HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT FEEL THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE
SHEAR VALUES ARE HIGHER. IN ADDITION THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS...THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND DEVELOPING CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS IT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA. THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE APPEAR TO RECEIVE THE MOST
RAIN THROUGH MONDAY. BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EAST OF THE
REGION AND CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. MID-WEEK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST AND ALLOWS THE AREA TO DRY OUT. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
BEGINS DE-AMPLIFYING BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RETURN TO THE AREA.

HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. LOCALIZED AREAS OF
HIGHER TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE...DEPENDENT FIRST UPON COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY...AND ALSO OVER THE
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW. SOME OF THE RIVERS...MAINLY IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
MAY HAVE SIGNIFICANT RISES DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN. ALSO...IF HEAVY
RAIN DEVELOPS OVER WHEELER... ROBERTS...GRAY AND HEMPHILL
COUNTIES...THEN WE COULD SEE SOME FLOODING ISSUES GIVEN THAT THESE
AREAS HAD HEAVY RAIN JUST A WEEK AND A HALF AGO.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/15




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