Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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268
FXUS64 KAMA 231135
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
635 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.AVIATION...
Southwest surface winds expected to commence gusting into the 20 to
25 kt range around 14z to 15z as stronger winds just above the
surface (as sampled by KAMA 88d) mix to the surface.  Isolated
thunderstorms early this evening across northwest part of forecast
area may have a brief impact at KDHT or KGUY, but will not include in
forecasts until stronger signal for development is seen.  Otherwise,
no clouds other than cirrus expected.  No visibility restrictions
foreseen.  VFR forecast continues next 24 hours.

Cockrell

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 401 AM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level high pressure continues to weaken today; however, lee
side troughing means southwest flow at the surface will translate
into another day with triple digit heat for most. A shortwave riding
around the 594 dm bubble will allow a chance for mountain convection
to make it into the northwestern Panhandles this afternoon and
evening. With weak shear and minimal CAPE, storms are not expected to
become severe. CAMs also indicate the storms will be pulse like and
remain confined to the northwest.

Sunday will see temps in the upper 90s as lee side troughing remains
in place. However, a frontal boundary stemming from a low pressure
system in eastern-central Canada will bring more widespread showers
and thunderstorms to the area. With the extra soil moisture and
southeast upslope flow keeping clouds around, Monday will see
"cooler" temps...mid 90s. Chances for rain will continue through the
week as well with the upslope flow and moisture pumping in from the
Gulf as an upper level trough moves through the Great Plains
Wednesday, leaving the area in northwest flow. Models are in general
agreement of timing with minor variances to extent of ridging and the
degree of positive tilt to the mid-week trough. Thus have gone with a
model blend since no one model`s variance stood out as more right
than another. Deep layer shear remains weak through the period.
Severe weather is not expected attm with the storms through the week.

Beat

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX               100  72  98  72  95 /   5  10  10  20  20
Beaver OK                 102  73  99  72  96 /   5  10  20  30  20
Boise City OK              99  66  96  66  92 /  20  30  30  40  20
Borger TX                 103  76 100  75  97 /   5  10  20  30  20
Boys Ranch TX             102  74 100  73  97 /   5  10  20  30  20
Canyon TX                 100  71  98  70  96 /   0  10  10  20  20
Clarendon TX               99  72  98  72  97 /   0   5   5  10  20
Dalhart TX                102  69  98  68  95 /  10  20  20  30  20
Guymon OK                 103  71 100  70  96 /  10  10  30  30  20
Hereford TX               100  71  98  70  96 /   0  10  20  20  20
Lipscomb TX               100  73  99  72  96 /   0   5  10  20  20
Pampa TX                   99  72  97  71  95 /   0   5  10  20  20
Shamrock TX               100  71  99  71  97 /   0   5   5  10  20
Wellington TX             101  71 101  72  99 /   0   5   5  10  20

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

03/16



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