Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 252221
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
421 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PHEW! WHAT AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THE PANHANDLES ARE ABOUT TO BE
IN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD! IT HAS TAKEN ALL DAY TO TRY AND SORT THINGS
OUT WITH OUR MAIN FOCUS REALLY BEING ON THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SO HERE`S
THE SCOOP:

ROUND ONE: TONIGHT - THURSDAY MORNING
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS
EVENING ALLOWING MUCH COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. AT THE SAME
TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND TRACK ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES. THIS QUICK SHOT
OF PRECIPITATION COULD LEAD TO AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOWFALL...MAYBE
TWO. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE PRECIPITATION STARTS OUT AS RAIN
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN
ICE GLAZING SITUATION ONCE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING. ADD A
LITTLE SNOW ON TOP OF THAT...AND TRAVEL ISSUES COULD EASILY DEVELOP BY
THURSDAY MORNING.

BREAK ONE: THURSDAY-THURSDAY EVENING
THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM WILL DISAPPEAR AS QUICKLY AS IT ARRIVED
LEAVING COLD TEMPERATURES IN ITS WAKE. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE IN THE 20S
WHICH WILL BE QUITE THE CONTRAST FROM TODAY. THERE COULD BE OFF AND
ON LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ACROSS ALL OF THE PANHANDLES DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

ROUND TWO: THURSDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BIGGEST IMPACT FOR SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN RIVER DEFINITELY HAVE THE BEST SHOT
TO SEE A QUICK 2-4 INCHES WITH THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR SNOW BEING
3AM-9AM...JUST IN TIME FOR THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE. NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN RIVER...1-2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNTS, TIMING, AND LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL...SO CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR THIS ROUND.

BREAK TWO: FRIDAY NIGHT
SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING WILL PRECLUDE SNOWFALL AS MUCH OF THE SNOW ENDS
ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS! BRRR! DURING THIS
TIME...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

ROUND THREE: SATURDAY
HOWEVER...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO
SATURDAY DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE.
MODELS ARE NOT IN MUCH AGREEMENT AT ALL AS FAR AS LOCATION OF
SNOWFALL...SO DECIDED TO KEEP A GENERAL UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE FOR ALL
THE PANHANDLES.

ROUND FOUR AND BEYOND: SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY
THIS IS DEFINITELY THE COMPLICATED PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS MORE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BUT WITHOUT AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IN
PLACE...THE AREA COULD BE DEALING WITH A MESSY FORECAST. LOWS AT
NIGHT WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING GIVING WAY TO FROZEN
PRECIPITATION WHILE DURING THE DAY...MOST AREAS WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING RESULTING IN MOSTLY RAIN. THIS PATTERN COULD DEFINITELY GO
BACK AND FORTH DURING THIS ENTIRE TIME FRAME WITH THE BEST SHOT FOR
PRECIPITATION BEING MONDAY AND AGAIN NEXT WEDNESDAY.

WITH ALL OF THIS SAID...THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BIGGEST
IMPACT FOR WINTRY WEATHER...BUT MAKE SURE TO PAY ATTENTION THROUGHOUT
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK FOR POTENTIAL CHANGES IN THE FORECAST AS
THIS IS A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH MAJOR DISCREPANCIES IN THE
MODELS ANTICIPATED.

KH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                19  27   9  17  11 /  70  20  50  80  30
BEAVER OK                  14  24   8  20  11 /  10   5  30  40  30
BOISE CITY OK              15  19   9  16  12 /  80  30  50  50  30
BORGER TX                  19  26  10  18  13 /  30  10  40  70  30
BOYS RANCH TX              21  26  12  20  13 /  80  20  60  70  30
CANYON TX                  20  28  11  18  11 /  90  20  60  80  30
CLARENDON TX               20  30  10  17  10 /  30  10  40  80  30
DALHART TX                 20  23  12  19  12 /  80  30  60  50  30
GUYMON OK                  18  23  11  18  11 /  20  10  40  50  30
HEREFORD TX                21  29  11  19  12 /  90  30  70  70  30
LIPSCOMB TX                20  25  11  19  13 /  10  10  30  50  30
PAMPA TX                   15  25   8  16  10 /  20  10  40  70  30
SHAMROCK TX                19  29  10  19  11 /  10  10  30  70  30
WELLINGTON TX              25  31  15  21  15 /  10  10  30  80  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM CST
     FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...
     COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...
     SHERMAN...WHEELER.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CST
     FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
     HARTLEY...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO 6 PM CST
     FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...TEXAS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM CST
     FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$



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