Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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125
FXUS64 KAMA 280524
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1224 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail for the 06Z TAFs. A weak cold front
will move south across TAF sites starting around 15Z. No
precipitation is expected along with little to no cloud cover is
anticipated. VFR conditions are expected through to the end of the
TAF period.

Meccariello

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 302 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Current water vapor imagery shows stacked upper low over the Great
Lakes region beginning to push south towards the upper Ohio Valley.
A cutoff low is moving northwest towards southern California leaving
the southern Plains between the two systems under anti-cyclonic flow
aloft. Large scale subsidence is evident on morning soundings across
the southern Plains with very dry air from the PBL through the mid
levels. These conditions will keep our weather mild and dry today
with high temperatures mostly in the 80s across the area with much
of the same on Wednesday. The upper low over the Great Lakes is
progged to become a cutoff low as it moves south out over the upper
Mississippi Valley while a more robust ridge builds in over the
Plains. this will keep the dry air and subsidence in place while a
baroclinic region backs into the eastern half of the Panhandles
early Thursday. This "back door" front can be seen easily looking
at 850mb Theta-E and will help bring our temperatures down some
Thursday and Friday especially in the northeast zones. Surface
winds will also shift from westerly to easterly and remain in the
5-15 mph range as this front approaches late Wednesday. The next
chance for precipitation comes in on Friday evening across the
northeastern zones as weak return flow briefly sets up as the
ridge axis shifts east. BPL moisture does not look great but some
mid and upper level moisture is progged to move up over the ridge
and into northern zones from the Pacific. This combined with some
lee troughing and the baroclinic zone still across east will lead
to slight pops being kept in on Friday evening. A potential
shortwave is showing up in 500mb flow on Saturday ahead of main
upper trough progged to move into Great Basin through early next
week. This shortwave may be enough to initiate a few showers but
moisture still looks like it could be a limiting factor and
instability is very low to non-existent for thunder. Models are
coming into better agreement with the main upper level trough with
the main upper jet and dynamics staying north of the Panhandles.
At this time...it looks like most of the area will stay dry going
into early next week with temperatures around or slightly above
average.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

29/15



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