Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 201143
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
543 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.AVIATION...
Low clouds and visibility to start off the 12Z TAF cycle for KDHT and
KGUY while KAMA remains clear. There has been improvements at KDHT
and KGUY over the past couple of hours as fog has begun to dissipate.
Low clouds have also clear KDHT and is on the verge of clearing KGUY.
All terminals should be back to VFR by 14Z at the latest. Wind speeds
will be the next aviation concern as we will be pushing AWW gust
criteria for KAMA. KDHT will also be capable of seeing wind gusts
near the 40kt mark through the early afternoon hours. KGUY will
likely see the lowest gusts, given the proximity to the surface low,
while still expected to reach 32kts. While gusts are expected to drop
off after sunset, we will still see sustain winds above 15kt to the
5Z. After that time we will see drop to near 12kt.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 416 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Areas of fog across mainly the northern half of the Panhandles with
some light rain tracking northeast across the Oklahoma and far
northern Texas Panhandles at the moment. The light rain is expected
to move out of the forecast area by 12Z today although the fog and
low clouds will likely persist through around mid morning or 15Z
today. The fog may reduce visibilities to around a half mile or less
at times over portions of the northern Panhandles before lifting.
Upper trough near the Four Corners region to continue moving north
and east across the central Rockies into the central Plains states
today. Surface low and trough to the lee of the Rockies today will
allow for increasing downsloping westerly winds today with wind
speeds reaching wind advisory criteria mainly across the western and
south central Texas Panhandle from late morning through this
afternoon before diminishing by late today or early this evening. A
weak cold front will move through the forecast area by late this
afternoon.

Another upper trough or closed upper low is forecast to lift north
and east out of the Great Basin region and southwestern states
tonight and approach the Panhandles by Saturday afternoon and
evening. Forecast thickness values and 850 mb temps suggest that the
precip will be mainly light rain Saturday into Saturday evening. Light
rain expected to move into the southwest Texas Panhandle Saturday
morning...likely between 15Z and 18Z Saturday. The light rain should
spread north and east across the remainder of the forecast area by
Saturday afternoon. A cold front will move through the forecast area
Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. As the the upper low tracks
across the Panhandles Saturday night...colder air on the backside of
the upper low may allow for wrap around rain or snow across the
northwest half or northwest two thirds of the forecast area after 06Z
Sunday. Any snowfall accumulations will be light...mainly under a
half inch. As the upper low tracks east away from the Panhandles by
12Z Sunday...precip will end as drier air works down into the
forecast area on northwesterly upper flow.

Upper ridge to build in over the Panhandles Sunday through Monday
before another closed upper low tracks east across the Rockies into
the central Plains states early next week. Deepening surface low to
the lee of the Rockies Monday night will track east into the central
Plains states Tuesday. Downsloping west and southwest winds Tuesday
will increase to near wind advisory criteria across the southwest
portions or south central portions of the Texas Panhandle. A cold
front will move through the Panhandles Tuesday night bringing much
cooler or colder conditions to the forecast area for the latter half
of next week.

Schneider

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
     for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Dallam...Deaf
     Smith...Hartley...Moore...Oldham...Potter...Randall.

OK...None.

&&

$$

14/11


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