Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KAMA 010001
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
701 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.AVIATION...00Z TAFS

THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT IS THE BIGGEST CONCERN
THIS TAF PERIOD. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TSRA WILL BE AT KGUY
FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY KDHT, WITH LESS OF A THREAT AT A KAMA. HAVE
INSERTED VCTS AT KGUY AND VCSH AT KDHT FM 06-09Z TONIGHT, BUT MAY NEED
TO TAKE THAT FURTHER IF STORMS OVER COLORADO KEEP FIRING AND MOVING
SE. WINDS WILL RETAIN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS.

SIMPSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A RELATIVELY DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE PANHANDLES WITH LOW
END RAIN CHANCES OFF AND ON OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THIS EVENING, A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
PANHANDLES COULD ALLOW MOUNTAIN CONVECTION TO MAKE FURTHER EASTWARD
PROGRESS THAN YESTERDAY. HAVE RETAINED LOW END POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES. THERE IS A DEGREE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY
(1000-2000 J/KG) AND DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR (30-40KT) SO A STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM ISN`T OUT OF THE QUESTION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER SO DOWNBURSTS AND
QUARTER SIZE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR ANY STORMS THAT
BECOMES SEVERE. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL DECREASE WITH TIME AS WE GO
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY DISSIPATED SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY TO PLACE THE AREA UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW.
ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS COULD ALLOW FOR MOUNTAIN CONVECTION
TO INVADE THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE SPREADING NEAR AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE
ON THE LOW END (AROUND 1000 J/KG) WITH A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD FOR ANY STORM THAT
BECOMES STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS, BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE GUST CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT.

TUESDAY THE RIDGE AXIS MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLES. IF THE GROUND WAS
NOT AS SATURATED AS IT IS WE COULD BE LOOKING AT NEAR TRIPLE DIGITS
AREA WIDE FOR HIGHS. BUT HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH THE PREVIOUS
SHIFTS TREND OF STAYING ON THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES, AROUND 90,  WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES WHILE THE EASTERN
HALF WARMS TO THE MID 80S. POP CHANCES LOOK TO LOW TO MENTION IN THE
FORECAST GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WILL SEE THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE
MEANDER AROUND WHICH WILL OPEN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES TO OFF AND
ON RAIN CHANCES. THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COMBINED
PANHANDLES WILL LIKELY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES (WHILE STILL
REMAINING ON THE LOW END) DURING THE TIME PERIOD GIVEN THE LOCATION
IN RESPECT TO THE RIDGE AXIS. SHOULD ALL THE INGREDIENTS COME
TOGETHER AT THE RIGHT TIME THEN WE COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS FAR IN
ADVANCE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/08




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.