Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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678
FXUS64 KAMA 251707
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1207 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.AVIATION...

For 18z TAFs...VFR cigs/vsbys expected through period at all TAF
sites as front has pushed south. Some lingering MVFR with ST and
very isolated -SHRA is possible over the far east TX Panhandle
through the early afternoon hours...but VFR should prevail across
the entire area in the next few hours. Winds will continue to be
strong at times out of the north-northeast with 40 mph gusts
possible. Winds are expected to subside during the early evening
hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 628 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/

UPDATE...
Have canceled the Dense Fog Advisory as the patchy fog has diminished
across the advised area. Updated text products already sent.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 617 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/

AVIATION...
Low clouds, fog, and scattered shower will cause a low confidence
forecast for the first few hours of the 12Z TAF issuance. A cold
front is currently moving through the Panhandles and bringing
improving ceilings. KGUY and KDHT are on their way to return to VFR
while KAMA remains LIFR/IFR. We should see KAMA go VFR around 13Z but
light post frontal showers may briefly impact the terminal. The
stronger winds are lagging behind the front so we don`t anticipate to
see +30kt gusts until later this morning. Once these gusts star, we
will see them persist through the rest of the day. This evening we
will see winds decrease to remain light through the end of the TAF
period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 439 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/

UPDATE...
Have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the south-central Texas
Panhandle until 9 am. We have already seen patchy areas of
visibilities lowered to one quarter mile overnight, but these
lowered visibilities have increased in area over the last few hours.
Once the cold front across the NW zones moves through later this
morning we will see visibilities improve once again. Updated text
products already sent.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 258 AM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...
One upper level trough extended from an upper low over the North
Dakota/South Dakota state line southwestward into southeast
Colorado. Another upper level low was just about ready to cutoff
from the flow over northern Mexico.  The northern stream trough will
help to drive a cold front southward across the panhandles this
morning. This front will bring gusty northerly winds with it along
with drier air. There may be some showers along and just behind it
today as it moves south, but believe that the more meaningful
precipitation will stay southeast of the panhandles under the better
subtropical moisture feed.

Winds will decrease into the 5 to 10 mph range tonight as high
pressure starts to build in. The light winds and clear skies may
allow a few temperatures to fall into the upper 30s in the northwest
CWA.

The forecast will remain dry until about Thursday night. Then there
will be a daily small chance of showers and thunderstorms through
the rest of the forecast.  An upper level ridge will build over the
panhandles from the northwest Monday through Thursday. Then the
ridge will start to break down and this will allow a southwest flow
aloft to bring several short wave troughs through our region for
late in the week. Added moisture along with these short waves will
help spark showers and thunderstorms. At this time, the
precipitation does not look too widespread as the dynamics and
instability are limited to a small ribbon, mainly across the
northwest.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

7/3



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