Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 231736 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1236 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES...THOUGH SHOULD BE MOSTLY
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS THE VERY OUTSIDE SHOT OF A
STORM AT KAMA OR KGUY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CHANCES ARE LOWER THAN THE
LAST 2 DAYS. WINDS WILL VEER FROM SE TO SW EVENTUALLY.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT: DRY AND HOT. ONE MINOR CONCERN IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT WILL APPROACH FROM KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE TO GENERATE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON EAST OF A BEAVER TO CLAUDE LINE. HOWEVER, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW A DISTINCT WARM NOSE BETWEEN 600-500 MB AND 500 MB
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE 1-2 C WARMER THIS AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY.
THEREFORE, WE`VE KEPT POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT: SHOULD BE EVEN WARMER AND JUST ABOUT
EVERYBODY WILL STAY DRY. THE ONLY PLACE THAT HAS ANY SHOT FOR RAIN
WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST PANHANDLES, BUT EVEN IN THIS AREA,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL DRIFT INTO FROM
NEW MEXICO.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: THIS LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
WITH WIDESPREAD 100S LIKELY. WE MIGHT EVEN NEED TO CONSIDER A LOCAL
HEAT ADVISORY FOR PALO DURO CANYON AS TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED 105 F
AT THE BOTTOM OF THE CANYON. LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION MAY
DRIFT IN FROM NEW MEXICO AND/OR DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH AS MODELS
SHOW SOME CONFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

SATURDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: AFTER ANOTHER HOT DAY ON SATURDAY, THE HEAT
WILL BACK OFF FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD. A STRONGER FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES REALLY INCREASING
IN THE POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME. THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK, TOO.

JACKSON

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
NEXT TUESDAY AS EITHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT AND/OR 20-FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

06/03




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