Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 221804
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
104 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016

.Aviation...
Southwesterly surface winds expected to prevail this afternoon prior
to passage of cold front.  By 23z expect that this boundary will be
near a KDHT-KGUY line, with surface winds becoming northeast at these
northern terminals following cold frontal passage.  Will include
VCTS remark this evening at KDHT, where steeper lapse rates and
passage of weak shortwave trof may be enough for cap to be broken.
Will monitor developments and amend to accentuate thunder threat at
all terminals as necessary.

No cloud bases below those of the high-based cumulus clouds around
8000 feet which are forecast this afternoon and evening.  No
visibility restrictions foreseen.

Cold frontal boundary not expected to pass through KAMA, unless
outflow from any thunderstorms to the northwest may enhance this
otherwise fated-to-dissipate-boundary.  Thus, we have continued
forecast of southeast surface winds this evening at KAMA.

Northerly surface winds forecast for northern terminals Thursday
morning with southwest surface winds expected at KAMA, owing
weakening surface wave over north-central Texas Panhandle.

Cockrell

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 608 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016/

Aviation...
Winds will be gusty this morning into the early afternoon at all TAF
sites as the low level jet mixes out. Winds will turn around to the
northeast behind a weak cold front at DHT and GUY late this
afternoon. Winds will remain southerly at the AMA TAF site overnight.
A few showers and thunderstorms will make a run at the DHT and GUY
TAF sites tonight. But confidence is not high enough to insert them
into the forecast at this time.

Prev Discussion... /Issued 252 AM CDT WED JUN 22 2016/

Discussion...
Not only will today be the warmest day of the week, it will also see
the first chances for precip for the past several days. The center of
the upper level ridge will shift to the southeast throughout the day
today while still allowing high temperatures to increase near and a
few degrees above the century mark. Southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph
will also help temperatures at the base of the Palo Duro Canyon to
increase into the 103 to 108 degree range.

By this afternoon, convection is anticipated to develop along the
Southern Rockies and move into southeast Colorado and the Eastern New
Mexico Plains. This convection will be able to make further eastward
progression compared to yesterday due to the weakening upper ridge
and a more zonal flow pattern. Instability and deep layer shear will
be lacking so severe weather is not anticipated however, an few
strong storms can`t be ruled out.

Zonal flow aloft will persist into the weekend to allow convection to
develop across parts of the Panhandles Thursday and Friday as weak
shortwaves eject out of the Southern Rockies. A weak frontal boundary
across the NW portion of the combined Panhandles will help to focus
convective development Thursday afternoon. This coupled with deep
layer shear in the 25 to 30kt range and ML CAPE values in the 1500 to
2000 J/kg range could allow for strong storms as well as an isolated
severe storm. By Friday, the boundary retreats north of the
Panhandles, and convective parameters are slightly less favorable.
Strong storms could still be a possibility but the severe risk will
far more limited.

Over the weekend, the upper flow becomes more southwesterly in
response to a closed low moving into the Dakotas. This will help to
open up a greater part of the Panhandles to the possibility of
storms both Saturday and Sunday. With ML CAPE values of 1000 to 1500
J/kg and deep layer shear in the 15 to 20kt range, strong storms
can`t be ruled out but severe storms are not anticipated.

Northwest flow aloft is anticipated for the start of next week.
Embedded shortwaves emanating from the Rockies could still bring
rain chances to portions of the Panhandles, but they will be far more
isolated in nature as compared to the weekend. Severe weather is not
anticipated from Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/16



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