Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 090457 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1057 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY EVENING.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

UPDATE...
CRITERIA FOR BOTH ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
NO LONGER BEING MET SO HAVE ALLOWD RFW AND RFD TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE.
UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL FEATURE
A STRONG RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP THE PANHANDLES BENEATH
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW
ONLY BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES. A REX BLOCK PATTERN ALONG THE WEST COAST WAS NOTED IN
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS WILL HELP TO ENSURE
ONLY SLOW CHANGES TO THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SOME BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...BUT WEATHER
IMPACTS WILL BE THE SAME FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED MOST DAYS THIS
WEEK AS COLDER AIR REMAINS LOCKED UP IN THE MIDWEST. AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY EDGE INTO THE PANHANDLES AND KNOCK TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CLOSER
TO NORMAL. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ONE THING TO NOTE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THAT I UNDERCUT MOST
DEW POINT GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK TO MATCH RECENT TRENDS ON
DRIER DAYS. THIS SHOULD GET AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CLOSER
TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN OBSERVING...IN ORDER TO HELP PLAN FOR ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.

NF

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. THEN THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THE LOWEST
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
WEDNESDAY /1O TO 15 PERCENT/...BUT WINDS MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH
FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS. WIND SPEEDS IN GENERAL WILL BE THE ELEMENT
TO WATCH EACH DAY AS WE CONSIDER ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

NF

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$


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