Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 290341
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1041 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES WILL AFFECT ALL
THREE TAF SITES UNTIL AROUND 07Z TO 10Z WEDNESDAY. THE HRRR
FORECASTING THE CONVECTION TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE NOT LONG AFTER 06Z
WEDNESDAY. WILL LEAVE A TEMPO GROUP AT ALL THREE TAF SITES FOR NOW
UNTIL 10Z WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL EXCEPT
FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 10Z TO 12Z WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN
AFTER 00Z TO 02Z THURSDAY. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 15
KNOTS EXCEPT FOR SOME GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS IN AND NEAR THE
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 25 TO 35 KNOTS THROUGH ROUGHLY 10Z WEDNESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD...WITH A
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEING THE MAIN FOCUS AT ANY SITE THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD WILL BE FOR AMARILLO BEFORE ABOUT
08Z WEDNESDAY. LATER SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY IMPACT KDHT OR
KGUY...THOUGH CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY BROUGHT NORTHERLY WINDS TO KDHT AND
KGUY...AND SHOULD BRING A WIND SHIFT TO KAMA BY 08Z.
OTHERWISE...POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS AT KGUY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

NF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN DEAF SMITH COUNTY
THROUGH AMARILLO NORTHEAST INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG THIS FRONT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY ALONG IT. POPS WILL BE
HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT AS
MOISTURE RETURNS TO THIS REGION ABOVE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE
SUBTROPICAL PLUME WILL ALSO BE FOUND ACROSS THIS REGION. THE BEST
DYNAMICS WILL ALSO BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREATS. HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO CAUSE AREAS OF FLOODING AS STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW.

UPPER DYNAMICS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MOST FAVORABLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA THROUGH THURSDAY...SO WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS THERE.

FLOW ALOFT THEN BECOMES NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY AND BEYOND. SO WE WILL
HAVE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THIS WAY FROM
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/06




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