Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 202103
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
403 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK.

AN UPPER RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
THIS AFTERNOON...FLANKED BY AN UPPER LOW OFF THE CA COAST AND AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. THE REMNANTS OF
ODILE CONTINUE TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH...BUT A
FEW OF THESE MAY CLIP THE FAR SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE THROUGH SUNSET.
EXPECT ANY SHOWERS TO QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY OTHER FORCING. FOCUS FOR ANY
CONVECTION WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ATTENDANT FORCING MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OK
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SLIPS SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE AS A VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL
END ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING AS MORE STABLE AIR BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. RAIN CHANCES
WILL LINGER HOWEVER ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST PANHANDLES SUNDAY
NIGHT WHERE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SINKING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY WILL KEEP A MOIST LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IN PLACE...WHILE
LINGERING MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM ODILE IS RECYCLED BACK
NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN NM AND THE WESTERN PANHANDLES BENEATH THE
UPPER RIDGE.

THIS MID/UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME...WITH CONTRIBUTIONS FROM BOTH
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE AND POLO...WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
FLATTENS THE UPPER RIDGE. RESULTANT WEAK HEIGHT FALLS...ALONG WITH
THE INCREASING MOISTURE...WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY
WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON TUESDAY...WITH ITS SOUTHERN EXTENSION BRINGING SOME WEAK BUT
SUFFICIENT FORCING TO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES FOR SOME POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS.

UPPER RIDGING WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK. A WEAKNESS/SHEAR AXIS EMANATING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
THE PANHANDLES DURING THIS TIME. WILL LEAVE SOME SMALL POPS IN PLACE
DURING THIS TIME...AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
AS WELL.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD EAST OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER LOW ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE
ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER THAN THE GFS IN PROGRESSING THIS LOW
EASTWARD...AND HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED ITS LEAD. THUS WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY FOR FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER PLEASANT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND 80S.

KB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                62  80  59  75  57 /  10  40  30  30  30
BEAVER OK                  63  81  54  81  59 /  30  20  10  20  40
BOISE CITY OK              59  77  57  76  57 /  20  20  20  40  30
BORGER TX                  66  81  62  77  62 /  20  30  20  20  30
BOYS RANCH TX              62  82  61  75  59 /  10  40  30  40  30
CANYON TX                  62  82  59  75  57 /  10  40  30  30  30
CLARENDON TX               64  83  61  78  60 /  10  40  30  20  30
DALHART TX                 59  77  58  75  56 /  20  30  30  40  30
GUYMON OK                  63  80  56  78  60 /  30  20  10  30  40
HEREFORD TX                63  80  59  75  56 /  10  50  40  40  30
LIPSCOMB TX                64  82  54  80  59 /  30  20  10  20  30
PAMPA TX                   62  79  58  75  59 /  10  30  20  20  30
SHAMROCK TX                65  85  58  80  60 /  10  30  20  20  30
WELLINGTON TX              66  87  60  82  60 /  10  30  30  20  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/08





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