Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 051003
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
503 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL. HAVE REMOVED SLGT CHC POPS
ACROSS THE FAR WRN COUNTIES AS IT NOW APPEARS STORMS WILL LIKELY NOT
CROSS THE NM STATE LINE UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SFC
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
A DEEPENING SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IN ADVANCE OF A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT FOR EARLY JULY.

THIS PARTICULAR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE TX AND OK PNHDLS MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TONIGHT...AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY MOST PLACES
ON MONDAY...WITH CHC TO LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
QUITE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SERN HALF OF THE
FCST AREA. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
ON MONDAY. LINGERING POPS FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT WERE RETAINED...RANGING
FROM SLGT CHC VALUES NORTHERN ZONES TO CHC POPS SOUTHERN TX PNHDL.
THERE SHOULD BE FAR LESS PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND ITS QUITE LIKELY
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE MORE STABLE TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
BOUNDARY AND FROM EXPECTED DECENT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO AND WERE ACCEPTED.

NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED FOR WED AND THURS...THEN POSSIBLY EXPAND INTO
THE SRN PLAINS NEXT FRIDAY THRUOGH THE WEEKEND. SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS
WERE INCLUDED FOR WED THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPS SEEM LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                92  69  84  61  76 /   5  20  60  60  30
BEAVER OK                  97  72  86  62  79 /   5  20  60  50  20
BOISE CITY OK              94  65  81  58  77 /  10  30  60  40  20
BORGER TX                  95  72  85  64  77 /   5  10  60  60  20
BOYS RANCH TX              94  68  84  61  77 /   5  20  60  50  20
CANYON TX                  92  69  85  61  76 /   5  10  60  60  30
CLARENDON TX               93  70  88  64  77 /   5  10  50  70  40
DALHART TX                 96  67  82  61  78 /  10  20  60  50  20
GUYMON OK                  98  70  83  62  80 /   5  20  60  40  20
HEREFORD TX                91  68  86  61  76 /   5  10  60  60  30
LIPSCOMB TX                94  72  88  62  76 /   5  10  60  70  30
PAMPA TX                   92  70  87  61  75 /   5  10  60  60  30
SHAMROCK TX                94  71  90  65  77 /   5   5  50  70  40
WELLINGTON TX              94  72  92  68  78 /   5   5  50  70  50

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

99/02





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