Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 282030
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
330 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SAW MORE FALL-LIKE WEATHER TODAY
THAN RECENTLY AS A COOL AIR MASS SETTLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. VEIL OF HIGH CLOUDS HAVE PRETTY MUCH DISSIPATED...LEAVING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. WHILE SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT...RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWEST
TEXAS PANHANDLE. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY FALL INTO THE MID 30S...RAISING
CONCERN FOR POSSIBLE FROST DEVELOPMENT BUT OVERALL EXPECT TEMPS TO
STAY WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT FROST. THUS HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A
FROST ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY WHILE A
SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST. SOUTHERLY
WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL HELP TO BUMP TEMPS BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
/THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/ DESPITE A FAIRLY ACTIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN
ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY...MAINTAINING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SENDING A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL COME THROUGH DRY AS THERE
WILL NOT BE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. THIS FRONT WILL SEND ANOTHER
SURGE OF COOL AIR INTO THE AREA IN TIME FOR HALLOWEEN FRIDAY...WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. BY THE
WEEKEND...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE
BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LEE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. THIS WILL HELP TEMPS TO REBOUND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO
PAINT LIGHT QPF MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA...EAST OF A DIFFUSE DRYLINE. HOWEVER THE
CURRENT 12Z ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS TROUGH AND NOW DOES
NOT CLOSE OFF A SECONDARY UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
THE ECMWF ALSO INDICATES PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
STAY EAST OF THE AMA CWA. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST GIVEN
THESE MODEL DISCREPANCIES.

CLK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                40  69  44  72  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  37  73  40  72  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              37  70  41  70  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  43  72  45  73  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              40  72  43  73  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  38  70  43  73  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               41  70  45  76  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 35  69  37  73  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  38  72  40  74  37 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                37  69  43  72  39 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                37  72  41  73  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   40  69  44  71  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                37  71  42  76  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              40  74  44  79  45 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

19/05





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