Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
000
FXUS64 KAMA 152340
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
640 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
Cooler temperatures and rain showers highlight the short term
forecast. Cooler temperatures will remain across the Panhandles
this afternoon along with scattered rain showers. These same
conditions are expected tomorrow along with cloudy skies.
Latest radar trends over the last hour currently have scattered
showers across much of the Panhandles with better coverage across
the central and southeast. Most rainfall totals have remained
below 0.10 inches, but a few locations have reached nearly a
quarter inch of rainfall today. These showers will continue to
move off to the northeast and gradually weaken as moisture
throughout the column decreases and lift associated with the
shortwave diminishes.
A H500 low pressure system will remain fairly stationary near the
southern tip of Nevada tonight through Saturday night. With
southwest flow aloft, additional shortwaves are forecast to
traverse across the Southern High Plains on Saturday. These waves
should be associated with an additional push of H700 theta-e and
another round of showers should develop and begin moving over the
CWA early tomorrow morning. Similar to today, weak forcing is
forecast so showers will remain on the light side and thus rain
accumulation will also be low. However, any precipitation is a
welcome sight given the fire weather conditions over the past
couple of weeks. Thunderstorms are not expected as models are not
showing any elevated CAPE. The rain showers should exit the area
to the east by mid to late afternoon. Cloud cover will remain
prevalent across the region on Saturday and temperatures will
struggle to warm up to near average once again. Highs are forecast
to be in the 50s on Saturday.
Muscha
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
The aforementioned upper level low pressure system is expected to
meander around the southwestern states from Sunday through Tuesday,
then translate eastward towards the southern high plains on Wednesday.
The 12Z deterministic medium range models and associated ensemble
members are in better agreement today compared to 24 hours ago with
respect to track and timing of this particular feature. In addition,
the latest NBM pops and temperatures have made the adjustment, more
in line with the deterministic model guidance, towards drier weather
for Monday and Tuesday as the upper level low retrogrades somewhat
before finally moving eastward across the area on Wednesday, then
east of the region Thursday. Therefore, have continued to side with
the NBM pops and temperatures for all periods of the long term forecast.
02
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
VFR conditions expected to start the 00Z TAF period at all TAF
sites. Will have to monitor for low cigs at KAMA/KDHT in
particular with MVFR levels developing at times throughout the TAF
period. Higher chances of MVFR cigs return towards the end of the
TAF period for both KAMA/KDHT. Winds will be variable around 5-10
kts.
Meccariello
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 37 52 39 54 / 10 50 10 40
Beaver OK 35 61 40 61 / 10 20 10 10
Boise City OK 31 53 34 52 / 10 20 20 30
Borger TX 40 56 41 58 / 10 40 10 30
Boys Ranch TX 36 52 38 53 / 20 40 10 50
Canyon TX 38 51 38 54 / 10 50 10 50
Clarendon TX 40 53 41 57 / 10 60 10 30
Dalhart TX 32 51 34 49 / 20 30 20 40
Guymon OK 33 56 37 57 / 10 20 10 20
Hereford TX 37 51 38 54 / 20 50 20 60
Lipscomb TX 37 59 41 60 / 10 30 10 10
Pampa TX 38 54 40 56 / 10 50 10 20
Shamrock TX 40 56 42 59 / 10 60 10 20
Wellington TX 41 55 42 59 / 10 70 10 20
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...29