Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 200249 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
949 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
REMOVED POPS AND ADJUSTED SKY COVER GRIDS REST OF TONIGHT. REMAINING
FCST ELEMENTS ARE PLAUSIBLE FOR TONIGHT. UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
SENT.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS NEARLY OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON WHICH HAS
HELPED TO KEEP THE CONVECTION POTENTIAL DOWN AND MUCH FURTHER WEST OF
THE AREA. THIS IS EVIDENT ON THE MOSAIC RADAR WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTH CENTRAL NM. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CO CAN PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED STORMS WHILE AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES NEAR THE CENTRAL PART OF TX CAN ALSO HELP TO
GENERATE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE.
OVERALL FEEL THE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL OVERCOME
THESE FEATURES BUT HAVE KEPT IN A MENTION OF A STRAY STORM IN THESE
LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. ANY CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER SOUTHERN CA. SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW WILL
SHIFT THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME OVER THE AREA...PROVIDING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S WITH SOME LOCATIONS TOPPING THE CENTURY MARK.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE UPPER PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE UPPER FLOW REMAINING OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AND ALONG WITH
THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS NEARBY...A THREAT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES WILL EXPAND A BIT FURTHER EASTWARD TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

A SECOND AND STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
BY THE WEEKEND WHERE IT WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY AROUND
MONDAY ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THIS FRONT. HAVE
NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY GIVEN THESE DIFFERENCES ALTHOUGH MODEL TRENDS ARE SUGGESTING A
POTENTIALLY WETTER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT. IN ADDITION FUELS REMAIN UNSUPPORTIVE OF ANY ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH
OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







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