Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 252120
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
420 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

INITIAL CONCERN IS PERIOD OF ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING AS STRONG 3 HOUR POST-FRONTAL
PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR BEHIND DEEPENING LOW NOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO ALSO INCLUDE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA BASED ON LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND CURRENT
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...WEAK FORCING AND DEEPENING MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. AMOUNTS WILL BE A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS SIGNAL WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
AND COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY BRINGING A BRIEF
LESS SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL PROBABLY TREND UPWARD SLIGHTLY INTO MID WEEK
ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT. GFS IS A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT
WITH WEAK TROUGHING. DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL BE RELEGATED TO AREAS EAST
OF THE PANHANDLES SO PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
LATE TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL PATTERN AND IMPLICATIONS FOR BOTH
LOW END PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
BELOW AVERAGE GIVEN DEGREE OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                33  62  37  72  43 /  20   5   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  32  66  36  71  43 /  30   5   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              30  62  35  71  42 /  30   5   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  35  65  39  74  45 /  20   5   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              33  65  36  74  42 /  20   5   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  33  62  36  72  41 /  20   5   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               37  64  41  72  43 /  20   5   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 30  64  35  73  41 /  30   5   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  32  65  35  73  42 /  30   5   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                32  62  35  73  42 /  20   5   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                34  65  38  71  44 /  20   5   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   34  62  38  70  44 /  20   5   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                38  64  40  70  42 /  20   5   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              40  65  42  72  43 /  20   5   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF
     SMITH...DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

18/17




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