Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 292256
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
456 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY. WHILE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER OVER THE PAST FEW
DAYS...A GREAT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON WHERE A WINTRY MIX
WILL FALL. TIMING WISE...THINK IT WILL TAKE UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON
BEFORE WE START SEEING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS PANHANDLES. HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX WHILE
TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS SUPPORT MOSTLY JUST RAIN FOR THE
EVENING COMMUTE. OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH FREEZING AND
A CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET IS POSSIBLE MAINLY
WEST OF A GUYMON TO SPEARMAN TO CLARENDON LINE. THIS TIME PERIOD ALSO
COINCIDES WHEN PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND
WHEN ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR...THOUGH THESE TOTALS WILL
LIKELY VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE
CHANGE OVER TO SLEET OR SNOW OCCURS. OVERALL...THE FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES IN THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLE APPEAR THE MOST LIKELY
PLACES FOR IMPACTS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SLEET AND ACCUMULATING SNOW
SO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES WARM UP SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND LIKE FRIDAY...MOST
LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN BEFORE
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH INTO MEXICO AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLES WHICH ALSO SHOULD HELP TO DRY THINGS
OUT FOR SUNDAY. AFTER SUNDAY...DRY NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER.
APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN COULD REMAIN QUIET
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK WITH NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                32  40  31  39  31 /   0  50  80  60  30
BEAVER OK                  30  45  36  42  29 /   0  30  60  40  50
BOISE CITY OK              32  40  29  42  26 /   0  50  60  40  30
BORGER TX                  33  44  34  43  32 /   0  40  70  50  40
BOYS RANCH TX              34  41  31  42  29 /   5  50  80  50  20
CANYON TX                  33  39  32  40  30 /   5  50  80  60  20
CLARENDON TX               34  42  33  39  32 /   0  30  80  60  30
DALHART TX                 32  39  30  42  32 /   5  50  70  40  20
GUYMON OK                  31  43  34  46  30 /   0  40  60  40  40
HEREFORD TX                34  38  30  39  29 /   5  50  80  60  20
LIPSCOMB TX                31  44  36  42  34 /   0  30  60  50  50
PAMPA TX                   31  41  31  38  29 /   0  40  70  50  40
SHAMROCK TX                33  44  36  41  34 /   0  30  60  60  40
WELLINGTON TX              35  46  37  42  37 /   0  30  60  70  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...
     OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

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