Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 152118
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
418 PM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A longwave trough across the western states will continue pushing
east across the northern and central Rockies over the weekend and
will lift north and east across the northern and central Plains
states by early next week as an upper high builds over the Gulf of
Mexico and northern Gulf states. A cold front is forecast to push
across the Panhandles Saturday night with low level moisture
advecting into the forecast area through the weekend into early
next week. Increasing chances for convection can be expected this
weekend into early next week. Upper high builds in over Mexico and
southern Texas by the middle of next week allowing for a zonal
flow aloft. A northern stream upper trough will track east across
the northern and central Rockies into the northern and central
Plains states around the middle and latter half of next week. Best
upper dynamics from the upper trough next week forecast to remain
north and east of the Panhandles which should keep the forecast
area dry. Both the GFS and ECMWF maintaining a dry forecast across
the Panhandles next Wednesday through Thursday with next best
chance for convection expected by next Friday and next weekend.

Schneider

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thursday and today have been flirting with elevated fire weather
conditions across mainly across the Oklahoma and the northern
Texas Panhandles with minimum relative humidities close to 20
percent and 20 foot wind speeds of 15 mph or higher. Most
locations today were above 20 percent relative humidities as
ongoing precipitation, mainly across the eastern Panhandles, and
cloud cover held temps down over Thursday`s high temps and surface
dew points were mostly in the 50s except mid and upper 40s across
the north. Increasing chances for precipitation this weekend along
with dew points continuing to climb into the 50s by Sunday across
most of the forecast area, and a cold front Saturday night will
inhibit any elevated or critical fire weather conditions.
However, drier conditions by the middle of next week along with
temps climbing back up into the 90s again and 20 foot winds
increasing to 15 mph or higher by next Tuesday or Wednesday may
result in some portions or most of the forecast area flirting with
elevated fire weather conditions once again.

Schneider

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                64  89  63  84  62 /  20  20  30  30  20
Beaver OK                  66  92  61  83  64 /  10  20  20  30  20
Boise City OK              57  86  55  77  59 /   5   5  10  20  30
Borger TX                  67  92  64  86  65 /  20  20  30  30  30
Boys Ranch TX              63  91  62  86  61 /   5  20  20  30  30
Canyon TX                  63  90  62  85  61 /  20  20  30  30  20
Clarendon TX               66  92  64  87  63 /  20  30  30  20  20
Dalhart TX                 58  88  58  83  60 /   5  10  20  30  30
Guymon OK                  62  90  59  82  63 /   5  10  20  30  30
Hereford TX                62  89  62  85  60 /  20  20  20  30  30
Lipscomb TX                67  94  63  85  65 /  20  20  30  30  30
Pampa TX                   66  91  63  85  64 /  20  20  30  30  20
Shamrock TX                67  94  66  88  65 /  20  20  30  20  20
Wellington TX              67  95  66  89  66 /  20  20  30  20  10

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

14/11



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