Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 200819
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
319 AM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Warm and dry conditions are expected across the Panhandles today as
high temperature increase into the lower 90s area wide. South to
southwest winds are expected to increase into the 15 to 20 mph range
this afternoon as the surface pressure gradient tightens in response
to a lee side surface low over central Colorado.

On Wednesday, an upper level trough is anticipated to lift
northeastward out of the Colorado Rockies. The ridge of high pressure
which has brought pleasant weather to the Panhandles for the past few
days will weakened slightly to allow trailing vort lobes behind the
trough to move across the northwestern zones. This will help to
promote thunderstorms across the New Mexico Northeastern Plains.
These storms will follow the shortwaves and move into the western
Oklahoma and northwestern Texas Panhandles during the early
afternoon. Instability will be hard to come by so severe weather is
not anticipated at this time. Storms should dissipate by early
Thursday morning as the vorticity lobes move east of the Panhandles.

The Panhandles will stay on the western edge of the upper low
Thursday and Friday to keep the area dry as a cut-off low moves into
the Four Corners Region. This upper low will bring us our next area
wide rain chances late Friday through Sunday. Medium range models
still aren`t in great agreement with this low, but a general
consensus of the low splitting into two separate lows is evident. The
southern closed low takes a southerly track as a cold front sweeps
across the area Sunday. The front will bring much cooler conditions
to the area for the start of next week while also clearing the area
of rain chances late Sunday night. Forecast models do show better
instability (1000-2000 J/kg) mainly on Saturday so an isolated strong
storm can`t be ruled out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                93  65  90  63  89 /   0   0   5  10   0
Beaver OK                  96  69  91  67  94 /   0   0  10  10   5
Boise City OK              92  62  86  61  90 /   0   5  20  20   5
Borger TX                  95  69  91  67  92 /   0   0   5  10   0
Boys Ranch TX              95  67  91  64  91 /   0   0  10  10   5
Canyon TX                  93  64  90  63  88 /   0   0   5  10   0
Clarendon TX               92  66  90  65  89 /   0   0   5   5   0
Dalhart TX                 95  64  88  62  90 /   0   5  20  20   5
Guymon OK                  98  67  88  65  93 /   0   0  10  20   5
Hereford TX                93  65  89  62  88 /   0   0  10  10   0
Lipscomb TX                95  68  91  68  91 /   0   0   5   5   0
Pampa TX                   92  67  86  65  89 /   0   0   5   5   0
Shamrock TX                93  66  90  66  90 /   0   0   5   0   0
Wellington TX              94  67  91  66  91 /   0   0   5   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

7/14



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