Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 272131
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
431 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Shortwave trough over south central CO will track southeast across
the northern Panhandles. Large scale forcing will allow for storms
to develop over the mountains to the west and will continue to
track east. Post frontal stratus deck will continue to erode with
daytime heating. Steep mid level laps rates will allow for
sufficient MLCAPE values 500-1500 J/kg along with effective shear
values of 40-50 kts. This will provide support for isolated to
scattered supercells capable of producing large hail (ping pong
ball) and damaging winds up to 75 mph around sunset. This threat
should diminish around midnight, as the cold front will move
through and daytime heating will be gone.

Strong northerly winds with the cold front will be expected. There
will be a brief period where we expect the winds in Cimarron,
Dallam, and Hartley counties to meet Advisory criteria. Therefore
have issued a Wind Advisory for these counties from 9pm through
2am. Again, these strong winds may only be short lived about 1 to
3 hours within this time period. All other areas will see a good
northerly wind push, but the areas further away from the
northwest Panhandles should expect lighter, albeit gusty, winds.
Expected sustained winds 15-30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph is
possible across most areas, while the northwest is expected to
see sustained 30-40 mph and gusts up to 55mph.

As the cold front exits the area, lighter northerly winds will
remain for Sunday, and daytime highs will be in the mid 70s to low
80s. No precipitation is expected on Sunday. Precipitation
chances look to return to the western Panhandles on Monday as an
upper level low dives down across southern CA and will begin to
pump up moisture from the gulf. This low is expected to be
cut off from the main flow to the west of the Panhandles,
continuing to feed the area moisture through at least Saturday. As
the low attempts to eject east over the next weekend there may
still be some showers and storms from northwesterly flow behind,
with the central and eastern Panhandles looking to be more
favorable for storm activity.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
KGUY may start for a brief period at MVFR conditions for the 18Z
TAF period. These brief MVFR conditions may occur at KGUY where
current obs and satellite trends have kept cigs around 2 kft all
morning to now. Eventually getting toward 20Z Saturday, all TAF
sites will be at VFR conditions. For a brief window between 00Z to
around 06Z Sunday, winds will be quite gusty out of the north
along and just behind the front with sustained winds around 20-25
kts with gusts as high as 35 kts possible. Although not mentioned,
LLWS may also be an issue at this time and will be updated with
the next TAF package. VCSH conditions along with a system just to
the north of the area may impact KGUY as well. Otherwise after 06Z
Sunday, VFR conditions will continue with winds subsiding to
10-15 kts out of the north with clearing skies.

Meccariello

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions expected across
Deaf Smith and Oldham Counties this afternoon and evening. 20ft
winds in the 15-20mph range along with relative humidities in the
single digits to low teens will promote elevated fire conditions.
In the event fires do start up there will be a strong wind shift
out of the north late this evening as a cold front moves south
across the Panhandles. Winds could be as strong as sustained 30mph
with gusts up to 40 mph out of the north. This is expected to
occur between 9pm and 1am tonight. At these points the relative
humidity values should start to come up and the elevated Fire
Weather threat will be over. But if any fires do get going before
and are not contained, these winds could become an issue.

Weber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                52  78  53  83  55 /  10   5   5   5  10
Beaver OK                  54  82  51  85  56 /  20   0   0   5  20
Boise City OK              48  73  49  79  51 /  40   5   5  20  20
Borger TX                  55  79  57  85  58 /  20   5   5   5  10
Boys Ranch TX              53  80  52  84  54 /  20   5   5  10  10
Canyon TX                  53  78  53  83  55 /  10   5   5   5  10
Clarendon TX               56  79  54  84  56 /  10   5   5   0   5
Dalhart TX                 50  77  49  81  52 /  20   5   5  20  20
Guymon OK                  51  78  52  83  55 /  30   0   0  10  20
Hereford TX                52  79  53  83  54 /  10   5   5   5  10
Lipscomb TX                56  80  52  85  56 /  20   0   0   5  10
Pampa TX                   53  78  52  83  55 /  10   5   5   5  10
Shamrock TX                58  80  55  86  57 /  10   5   5   0   5
Wellington TX              60  82  56  87  59 /  10   5   5   0   5

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 2 AM CDT Sunday for the
     following zones: Dallam...Hartley.

OK...Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 2 AM CDT Sunday for the
     following zones: Cimarron.


&&

$$

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