Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 020956
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
456 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID 30S IN THE
FROST ADVISRY REGION...SO WILL ALLOW THAT HEADLINE TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DURATION...EXPIRING AT 8 AM.

OTHERWISE...CLOUDS ARE DECREASING WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
ANTICIPATED TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER MAX TEMPS COMPARED TO
SUNDAYS VALUES. THEN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT AS THE NEXT FAST MOVG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM THE NORTH.

ON TUESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED MINOR UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF WILL
SWEEP SWD ACROSS THE OK AND TX PNHDLS AND WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
LIFT TO ASSIST IN PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION. HOWEVER...LIMITED
MOISTURE WILL EXIST FOR THIS FEATURE TO WORK WITH SO HAVE KEPT POPS
IN THE SLGT CHC CATEGORY AREAWIDE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THIS
PARTICULAR STORM SYSTEM IS FAST MOVG AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA
BY SUNSET TUE EVENING. THEREFORE...NO POPS TUE NIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WHICH IS FCST TO DIG DOWN THE CA
COAST AND SETTLE INTO A POSTIION NEAR THE SWRN STATES BY 12Z FRIDAY.
DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPS ARE IN THE OFFING FOR WED THRU FRIDAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE HANDLING THE NEXT STRONG
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE STORM SYSTEM FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE 00Z ECMWF...CANADIAN...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE UKMET AND 06Z DGEX
MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS. HAVE DECIDED TO LEAN
A BIT MORE WITH THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER MEDIUM RANGE MAJORITY SOLUTIONS
WITH RESPECT TO POPS FOR THIS WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME
STORMS THIS WEEKEND TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HOWEVER...WILL COMMENT THAT THE QUALITY OF
MOISTURE RETURN FOR THIS WEEKEND IS SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT THIS FAR OUT
IN TIME...WHICH WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH SEVERE WEATHER OCCURS IN OUR
AREA. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL HAVE MOVED
OFF THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH COULD RETARD
DEEP MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR AREA THAT MAY HAVE NORMALLY OCCURRED IF
THE GULF OF MEXICO WAS UNIMPEDED. NEVERTHELESS...THERE SHOULD BE AT
LEAST ENUF MOISTURE RETURN TO WARRANT POPS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS
VALUES. SHOULD BETTER AND DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN BECOME MORE
PROMINENT LATE THIS WEEK...THEN IT WOULD APPEAR POPS MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED AND THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE AS WELL. THIS
WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THE WEEK UNFOLDS.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                63  40  69  43  78 /   0   5  20   5   0
BEAVER OK                  63  38  70  42  78 /   0   5  20   5   0
BOISE CITY OK              60  38  67  39  77 /   0  10  20   5   0
BORGER TX                  66  44  69  46  80 /   0   5  20   5   0
BOYS RANCH TX              63  38  69  41  78 /   0   5  20   5   0
CANYON TX                  63  40  69  43  78 /   0   5  20   5   0
CLARENDON TX               65  42  70  45  80 /   0   0  20   5   0
DALHART TX                 62  38  68  40  78 /   0  10  20   5   0
GUYMON OK                  63  40  69  43  79 /   0  10  20   5   0
HEREFORD TX                63  39  69  42  78 /   0   5  20   5   0
LIPSCOMB TX                64  39  70  43  79 /   0   5  20   5   0
PAMPA TX                   64  40  69  44  78 /   0   5  20   5   0
SHAMROCK TX                65  42  70  45  80 /   0   0  20   5   0
WELLINGTON TX              67  43  72  47  81 /   0   0  20   5   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$



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