Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 211740 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1240 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH AIRMASS IS VERY MOIST...WITH THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
DEPICTING HEALTHY CAPES AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...WILL NOT INCLUDE
THUNDERSTORMS IN TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.

500 MB TEMPERATURE AT KAMA AT 12Z WAS -3.5 DEGREES CELSIUS...WITH
PROGGED 500 MB TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW -5 DEGREES CELSIUS ONLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
VERY LIGHT MID-LEVEL FLOW OFFERS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICS.

SURFACE CHART REVEALS LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE
ZONE OVER EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO.  ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
UNLIKELY TO DIRECTLY IMPACT ANY OF OUR TERMINALS...WITH KDHT BEING
BETTER POSITIONED.  WILL MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS AND AMEND IF
NECESSARY.

OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND
CUMULUS CLOUDS EXPECTED.  NO OVERNIGHT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
FORESEEN.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

AVIATION...12Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...MAINLY AT KDHT. HOWEVER...
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

SIMPSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED NEARLY OVERHEAD OF THE TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES EARLY THIS MORNING. SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE
RIDGE AND WARM AIR ALOFT WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER HOT AND DRY DAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE FAR WESTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES MAY SEE ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS
IN THIS AREA BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY CONVECTION MAKING ITS WAY
INTO THIS AREA THE PAST TWO NIGHTS...NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. NONETHELESS HAVE HELD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ALONG AND WEST OF AN EVA TO GLENRIO LINE GIVEN THE STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING ACTING UPON A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. NOT EXPECTING
STORMS TO MOVE TOO FAR EAST OF THIS AREA AS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
PRETTY WEAK. RISING HEIGHTS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS
TO SOAR WELL INTO THE 90S WITH SOME LOCATIONS TAGGING THE TRIPLE
DIGIT MARK. SHOULD BE ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING BACK INTO
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

LONG TERM...
HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES FOR THE LONG TERM AS THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVERHEAD FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. MUCH LIKE
TODAY...STRONG SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A HOT
AND DRY WX PATTERN WITH HIGHS EVERY DAY CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S
TO AROUND THE CENTURY MARK. THE RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE BACK TOWARD THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS
FORECAST TO LIFT INTO CENTRAL CANADA BY THE WEEKEND. WITH THE
POSITION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...THE UPPER FLOW
WILL VEER OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
THIS SOLUTION FOR SEVERAL RUNS SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A
PATTERN CHANGE TOWARD WETTER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY THE WEEKEND. A FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...FURTHER COOLING THINGS OFF AS WELL AS INCREASING PRECIP
CHANCES.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/02





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