Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 051131
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
631 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS VALID PERIOD.
MAINLY A WIND FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15
TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 30KTS OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTS MAY DROP OFF BUT
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR 15KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON ISOLATED CONVECTION MAKING IT INTO THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES THIS EVENING...AND HAVE LEFT KDHT DRY FOR NOW. A FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND
HAVE INTRODUCED A PROB30 GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT KGUY NEAR THE
VERY END OF THE PERIOD....THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 503 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL. HAVE REMOVED SLGT CHC POPS
ACROSS THE FAR WRN COUNTIES AS IT NOW APPEARS STORMS WILL LIKELY NOT
CROSS THE NM STATE LINE UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SFC
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
A DEEPENING SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE IN ADVANCE OF A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT FOR EARLY JULY.

THIS PARTICULAR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE TX AND OK PNHDLS MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TONIGHT...AND
ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY MOST PLACES
ON MONDAY...WITH CHC TO LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
QUITE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SERN HALF OF THE
FCST AREA. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
ON MONDAY. LINGERING POPS FOR TUE AND TUE NIGHT WERE RETAINED...RANGING
FROM SLGT CHC VALUES NORTHERN ZONES TO CHC POPS SOUTHERN TX PNHDL.
THERE SHOULD BE FAR LESS PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND ITS QUITE LIKELY
THE ATMOSPHERE MAY BE MORE STABLE TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS
BOUNDARY AND FROM EXPECTED DECENT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO AND WERE ACCEPTED.

NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED FOR WED AND THURS...THEN POSSIBLY EXPAND INTO
THE SRN PLAINS NEXT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS
WERE INCLUDED FOR WED THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPS SEEM LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/02





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