Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 180817
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
317 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS CLOUD COVER
IS SLOWLY BUT SURELY INCREASING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS IS ALL
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL IMPACT
THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH IT. THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE MAINLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITHOUT MUCH INSTABILITY AVAILABLE AND A
HEALTHY CAP PRESENT...THINK THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE HARD TO COME BY SO
KEPT ONLY SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE
RAINFALL TODAY...IN FACT...EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE RATHER
LIGHT. WITH THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AROUND...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE 60S AREA WIDE TODAY. FOR
TONIGHT...ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET
LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND LOWS IN THE 40S EXPECTED. FOR
SUNDAY...THE SUN WILL RETURN IN FULL FORCE AS DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S CAN BE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME IS DEFINITELY NOT CLEAR
CUT AS MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN SOMEWHAT DISAGREEMENT. PREVIOUS MODEL
RUNS HAVE KEPT ALL CONVECTION WEST OF THE PANHANDLES IN NEW MEXICO.
HOWEVER THE 00Z MODELS ESPECIALLY THE GFS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE A LITTLE
FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST AS A FEW UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...INCLUDED CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON
JUST HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER WILL BE AROUND...SO HIGHS
IN THE 70S SEEM REASONABLE.

BY WEDNESDAY...A MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION SPARKING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT
6-12 HOURS EARLIER WITH PRECIPITATION TIMING...WHILE THE GFS REALLY
FOCUSES THE BULK OF THE RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING AS FAR AS RAIN CHANCES...BUT
THERE STILL IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW LONG THE MOISTURE WILL HANG
AROUND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME...LEFT FRIDAY DRY FOR
NOW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

KNS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                65  47  73  52  76 /  20  10   5  10  10
BEAVER OK                  68  47  80  51  81 /   0   0   0  10   0
BOISE CITY OK              64  47  75  49  73 /   5   5   5  10   5
BORGER TX                  68  50  77  55  79 /  10   5   5  10   5
BOYS RANCH TX              65  46  74  51  77 /  20  10   5  10  10
CANYON TX                  66  46  73  51  76 /  20  10  10  20  10
CLARENDON TX               68  47  76  53  81 /  20  10   5  10  10
DALHART TX                 65  47  75  50  76 /  20   5   5  10  10
GUYMON OK                  67  48  78  51  79 /   5   5   0  10   0
HEREFORD TX                66  45  71  50  76 /  20  10  10  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                68  50  77  54  80 /   0   0   0  10   0
PAMPA TX                   65  47  75  52  77 /  10   5   5  10  10
SHAMROCK TX                69  48  75  53  82 /  10   5   5  10  10
WELLINGTON TX              71  51  76  56  82 /  10  10   5  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$





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