Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 020934
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
434 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER MORNING OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THIS TIME A
BIT FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SEEMS TO
HAVE FINALLY AMPLIFIED ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO SETUP A MORE WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY STORM MOTION. STORMS COULD REMAIN TOGETHER UNTIL NEAR
DAYBREAK...ALLOWING PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLES TO
PICK UP ANOTHER WIDESPREAD 0.5 TO 1 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH TOTALS
CLOSER TO 2 AND POSSIBLY 3 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN TAXES COUNTY AND
MOST OF HANSFORD COUNTY. ANOTHER LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...THOUGH LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WILL LIKELY ALLOW AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. GREATER COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE LATER ON DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST TO NORTHWEST...LOW LEVEL JET AND SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE
PANHANDLES STRENGTHEN. PWAT VALUES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS PREVIOUS
DAYS...BUT ARE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 1.50 INCHES OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES. SLOW STORM MOTION...COMBINED WITH
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING STORMS WILL KEEP THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING OR FLASH FLOODING AS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD FROM THE STRONGER
STORMS THAT FORM. MONDAY LOOKS FAIRLY SIMILAR...PERHAPS WITH GREATER
COVERAGE OF STORMS AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ARRIVES DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHEASTERLY AGAIN OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE FLOW TO
ALSO ASSIST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN MOVING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST...BUT ARE
SLOWLY MOVING IT FURTHER INTO THE WORKWEEK. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ON TUESDAY FOR THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...THEN DRY THINGS OUT
MIDWEEK...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUPER HIGH THAT THIS SCENARIO WILL
PLAY OUT. MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN BY THE
WEEKEND AND ENDING THE POTENTIAL REPRIEVE OF EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                88  66  88  67  93 /  20  30  30  30  10
BEAVER OK                  92  70  93  68  92 /  20  20  30  50  20
BOISE CITY OK              89  66  89  63  92 /  20  30  50  40  10
BORGER TX                  91  69  91  69  95 /  20  40  30  40  10
BOYS RANCH TX              92  68  92  67  95 /  20  30  30  30  10
CANYON TX                  89  66  90  66  95 /  20  40  30  30  10
CLARENDON TX               89  68  90  69  95 /  20  40  30  30  10
DALHART TX                 90  66  89  64  94 /  20  30  40  40  10
GUYMON OK                  92  69  89  66  93 /  20  40  40  50  10
HEREFORD TX                90  66  89  67  95 /  20  30  30  30  10
LIPSCOMB TX                91  70  92  69  93 /  20  30  30  50  20
PAMPA TX                   88  67  88  67  93 /  20  40  30  40  20
SHAMROCK TX                90  69  90  69  95 /  20  40  30  40  20
WELLINGTON TX              92  70  92  71  98 /  20  40  30  30  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/18




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