Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

549
FXUS64 KAMA 222050
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
350 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Cold front is continuing to make its way south through the region
just about to exit the TX Panhandles as obs show winds shifting to
northerly behind the front. As a strip of PVA swings south
rounding the base associated with an upper level perturbation in
the isobar field along with some mid level instability around 1000
J/Kg and bulks hear around 30-35 kts, an isolated shower and
storms is still possible in the far southwest TX Panhandle. These
storms for our region will be mainly diurnally driven. Latest
radar trends show some convection in eastern NM moving ENE toward
the southern Panhandle. Latest hi-res models does trend the
precipitation further south into the south Plains by 00Z Tuesday.
Any left over showers or an isolated storm will linger through
Tuesday morning as the main upper level trough axis continues to
shift east bring the precipitation upstream of the axis further to
the east throughout tomorrow morning. With the cold front passing
and mostly cloudy skies, high temperatures tomorrow will be
similar to today with highs ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

As we progress from Tuesday evening through the remainder of the
week, tranquil weather conditions will return to the Panhandles.
After blustery northerly winds behind the front on Tuesday, winds
will gradually switch to south an southwesterly by Thursday as a
zonal upper level pattern settles over the Panhandles.
Temperatures will respond nicely to the wind shift and by
Thursday and Friday, many areas can see high temperatures reach
the low 90s. By the time we reach the weekend, a positive tilted
upper level trough will move east from the northern Rockies.
Latest 22/12Z model and probabilistic guidance is not quite in
accord with the southern extent of the precipitation. Went with
blended guidance and by the weekend, the far northern areas may
see an isolated shower or storm, but will remain dry for the rest
of the region as a weak cold front works through the area Saturday
night. High temps over the weekend will range from low to upper
80s on Saturday and low to upper 70s behind the front on Sunday.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                45  67  44  80  53 /  40  20   5   0   0
Beaver OK                  47  68  42  77  51 /  30  10   5   0   0
Boise City OK              44  64  42  79  51 /  30  10   0   0   0
Borger TX                  49  71  45  82  57 /  40  20   5   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              48  69  44  82  53 /  40  20   5   0   0
Canyon TX                  46  68  44  81  53 /  50  20   5   0   0
Clarendon TX               49  69  47  83  53 /  50  30   5   0   0
Dalhart TX                 45  68  42  82  49 /  40  10   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  46  68  43  80  50 /  30  10   0   0   0
Hereford TX                46  67  43  82  53 /  50  30   5   0   0
Lipscomb TX                49  69  44  79  53 /  40  10   5   0   0
Pampa TX                   47  66  44  78  51 /  40  20   5   0   0
Shamrock TX                50  70  46  82  52 /  50  20   5   0   0
Wellington TX              52  72  48  84  54 /  50  30   5   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

11/29



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.