Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 200909
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
409 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY...INSERTED PATCHY FOG ACROSS SWRN AND SCNTRL TX PNHDL TIL
MID MORNING BASED ON CURERNT OBSERVATIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
NRN MEXICO MAY SEND A MINOR VORT LOBE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SW AND SCNTRL
PART OF THE TX PNHDL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO CAUSE AT
LEAST A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SLGT CHC POPS FOR THIS
AREA DURG THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ARE PLAUSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN DRY ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER WRN US UPPER LEVEL TROF...WHICH
IS NOW PROGGED BY ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS TO BE FASTER MOVING ACROSS THE
CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. CONSIDERING GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE WED AND EARLY WED
EVENING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WED NIGHT.
HAVE DONE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS FOR WED AND WED NIGHT TO
BETTER ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS. RETAINED SLGT CHC POPS FOR SW
TX PNHDL FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. BENIGN WEATHER SEEN FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT APPROACHES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK EXIST. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

ANDRADE/BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                75  52  74  51  70 /  10  10   5  10  40
BEAVER OK                  77  52  78  53  74 /   5   0   0   5  40
BOISE CITY OK              73  48  75  49  70 /  10  10   5  10  40
BORGER TX                  77  55  77  55  72 /   5   5   5  10  40
BOYS RANCH TX              76  50  75  50  70 /  10  10  10  10  40
CANYON TX                  75  51  74  50  70 /  20  20  10  10  40
CLARENDON TX               79  53  77  53  72 /  10  10   5  10  40
DALHART TX                 75  47  75  48  71 /  10  10   5  10  40
GUYMON OK                  76  51  78  51  73 /   5   5   0   5  40
HEREFORD TX                74  50  73  50  70 /  20  20  10  20  40
LIPSCOMB TX                78  52  79  53  74 /   5   0   0   5  40
PAMPA TX                   77  52  77  53  72 /   5   5   5   5  40
SHAMROCK TX                81  53  78  54  74 /  10  10   5  10  30
WELLINGTON TX              82  55  80  55  74 /  10  10   5  10  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






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