Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 012014
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
314 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
WEAK S/WV...STRONG HEATING AND A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE
MINIMAL CHCS FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING MAINLY ACROSS
NW ZONES WHERE ACTIVITY OFF NM MOUNTAINS HAS A LOW POTENTIAL TO ENTER
AREA. OVERALL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT
THIS POTENTIAL WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN MID-UPR RIDGING STILL IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION AND GENERALLY HAVE KEPT POPS RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY. THE HIGH CENTER AND RIDGE AXIS WILL RETREAT WEST-
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS NM. MEANWHILE A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
WILL POOL AND DEEPEN MOISTURE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL
PROVIDE INCREASING CHCS FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY. WHILE WIND
SPEEDS THROUGH THE COLUMN ARE WEAK...THERE IS SOME GOOD VEERING IN
THE PROFILE AND MODELS SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEER OF 30-40 ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SB CAPE VALUES REACHING 2000-3000 J/KG
(PER NAM12) SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE AREA AND
SPC HAS MOST OF THE CWA INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA. WEAKER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE SUGGESTS WIND AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS ALTHOUGH
SOME HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THURSDAY DUE TO
RETREATING RIDGE AND ABUNDANT CIRRUS DECK FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA.

GITTINGER

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
AND FOCUSING SURFACE BOUNDARIES. THE PANHANDLES REMAIN IN THAT
IN BETWEEN AREA WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND A
TROUGH TO OUR EAST. THE BEST WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY
TIME FRAME. IN BOTH CASES A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BE
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND THE PANHANDLES ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGHINESS TO FOCUS
CONVECTION DURING THOSE TIME FRAMES. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE
SEASON...THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WOULD
BE THE MAJOR THREAT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RATHER PLEASANT AND NEAR TO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS AS THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER HELP TO KEEP
SUMMER TIME TEMPERATURES AT BAY. SUNDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BE THE
DRIEST AND WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ON THAT DAY.

GARCIA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                69  89  66  86  66 /  10  30  40  40  40
BEAVER OK                  70  90  67  88  67 /  20  40  40  30  30
BOISE CITY OK              66  88  63  85  63 /  30  30  40  30  30
BORGER TX                  72  92  68  87  68 /  10  30  40  40  40
BOYS RANCH TX              70  92  66  87  66 /  10  30  40  40  30
CANYON TX                  67  91  65  86  65 /  10  30  40  40  20
CLARENDON TX               69  90  68  87  68 /  10  20  40  30  30
DALHART TX                 67  91  64  86  64 /  30  30  40  40  30
GUYMON OK                  69  90  66  87  66 /  20  30  40  30  30
HEREFORD TX                67  91  66  86  65 /  10  30  40  40  30
LIPSCOMB TX                71  90  67  87  67 /  10  40  40  30  40
PAMPA TX                   69  89  66  86  66 /  10  30  40  30  40
SHAMROCK TX                70  91  68  88  68 /  10  30  40  30  40
WELLINGTON TX              72  92  70  90  70 /  10  20  40  30  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

88/01





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