Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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575
FXUS64 KAMA 241738
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1238 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.AVIATION...
For 18z TAF Cycle:

VFR cigs/vsbys expected through cycle with scattered to broken
high based cumulus during the day. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon into
early evening hours. Included VCTS at KDHT and KAMA where most
coverage is expected. Can`t rule out thunder at KGUY, but
confidence isn`t high enough to include mention at this time.
Winds are expected to be southeasterly at 8-12 knots through most
of the period except for any local changes due to thunderstorm
outflow.

Ward

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 342 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level ridge will begin to shift east over the Panhandles,
but another round of afternoon convection is expected before the
break in storm activity on Tuesday. SB CAPE values around
1000-1500 J/kg will allow for some storms to possibly be strong,
but due to weak shear they should pulse and be short lived.

As the ridge moves overhead on Tuesday the chances of storms will
be limited to just the northwest corner of the Panhandles, and
even there the chances look fairly low. This will be short lived
as the high pressure will retrograde back west over the four
corners Tuesday night into Wednesday, returning northwest flow to
the area. Several impulses within the flow will bring a chance for
storms.

By Wednesday evening a shortwave trough associated with a cold
front is expected to generate a line of convection that could
extend from the Panhandles all the way to the Great Lakes region.
It`s possible that the frontal system will be later in the
evening after peak heating, and thusly may not present a severe
weather threat. But we`ll keep an eye out for this frontal system,
as timing could change and favor strong to severe storms Wednesday
or Thursday. With this cold front, 850 temps drop about 5-10
degrees C depending on which model you follow, from Wednesday
evening to Thursday evening.

Temperatures are expected to be on a slow rise as we head back
into the weekend, with showers and storms possible each day.

Weber

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

7/24



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