Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 022355
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
655 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL
TAF SITES. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE
IN SPEED THROUGH 02Z. THEN ALL SITES SHOULD GENERALLY HAVE WINDS LESS
THAN 12KTS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...THOUGH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY TAF SITE
BEING IMPACTED IS LOW.

NF

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

GENERALLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO GENERALLY WETTER
WEATHER, THE BIG QUESTION IS GENERALLY WHEN THIS WILL HAPPEN. THE
BROAD RIDGE THAT HAS KEPT US MOSTLY DRY LATELY WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK BEFORE ENERGIZED PAC NW FLOW FINALLY STARTS TO BEAT
DOWN THE RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A SHARP SHRTWV WILL CROSS THE
NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND,
DEAMPLIFYING THE UPR FLOW AS IT DOES. AS THE FLOW DEAMPLIFIES, THE
MONSOONAL MOISTURE STREAM THAT HAS REMAINED MOSTLY TO OUR WEST
SHOULD BRIEFLY TILT OVER THE PANHANDLES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BEFORE
GREATLY DISSIPATING. AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEK, SOME SEMBLANCE OF A
COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY GET TO US, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS ABOVE
NORMAL ON TIMING AND STRENGTH.

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH JUST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
STORMS IN NW SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN SEASONALLY
WARM, ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS FOR HIGHS AND
LOWS.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
THOUGH ISOLATED STORMS COULD BRIEFLY DOUSE A GRILL OR A PICNIC THIS
WEEKEND, IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE WET WEATHER WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL JUST AFTER THE LAST GRILL BURNER IS TURNED OFF ON LABOR DAY.
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE BEGINNING LATE IN
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE QUALITY AND
INSTABILITY INCREASE FROM THE RELATIVELY MEAGER LEVELS THAT WE WILL
SEE THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK SFC TROUGH BENEATH THE AFOREMENTIONED
MONSOONAL MOISTURE STREAM MAY KICK OFF SOME STORMS SUN AFTERNOON AND
ANOTHER WEAK SFC TROUGH COULD DO THE SAME ON MONDAY. THE EVENTUAL
LOSS OF THE STORM-SQUASHING RIDGE COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FRONT TO KNOCK ON OUR DOOR ALL LEAD TO
INCREASED CHANCES FOR A WETTER WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY OR TUESDAY BEFORE CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN CHANCES BRING HIGHS BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES
THEREAFTER.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

6/11


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