Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 171945
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
245 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...Quiescent weather pattern is in store for the
combined Panhandles through early Thursday as a ridge traverses
the area through that period. A shortwave trough is expected to
approach the southern high plains late Thursday and early Friday
morning, with latest guidance runs suggesting that meager return
moisture flow could occur with dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s.
Thunderstorms may form across eastern NM and move east to
northeast towards the area early Friday, the storms will have
meager elevated CAPE values btwn AOB 300 J/kg to work with to
sustain themselves. As a result, have a mentionable slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms across the southwestern Texas
Panhandle during that period. This trough will quickly sweep
across the Panhandles Friday and Saturday, bringing with it some
lift and continued southerly flow at the surface. The best chance
for shower and thunderstorm development is across the eastern two
rows of counties in the combined Panhandles, with 500 to 1000 J/kg
of MLCAPE. Limiting factor for organization both days will be
0-6km bulk shear values around 20 to 30 kts and a possible
inversion aloft at the H7 level. After Saturday, another ridge
will build in from the west and bring dry conditions to the region
through early next week.

Bieda

&&

.AVIATION...Previous Discussion...18Z TAFs...VFR conditions will
prevail at all TAF sites with winds 6 to 12kts. LLWS will still be
possible from 05z-13z tonight at KAMA. WS is marginal but right
around 30kts from sfc to 700ft AGL.

Weber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                81  47  83  50  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  80  44  83  49  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              78  42  82  45  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  82  50  85  54  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              80  45  85  50  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  82  46  84  50  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               80  47  83  51  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 81  42  82  46  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  78  43  83  47  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                81  45  83  49  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                80  45  83  49  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   80  47  82  51  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                77  46  82  51  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              79  46  83  53  80 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89/98



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