Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 022046
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
345 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.  CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHED...WITH VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING MODEST TO HEALTHY CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.  DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED TO BE AUGMENTED BY WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA AND LOW-LEVEL JET.
HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO BE MAIN THREAT TONIGHT.

MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT STILL LOOK TO BE TIME OF GREATEST
CONCERN.  700 MB TROF AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO
CREATE INCREASING SHEAR...LEADING TO ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.  IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS...
A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST.  60 MPH
WINDS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL EXPECTED TO BE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.

LOW POPS RETAINED IN EAST AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
WHERE INSTABILITY AND FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO BE MAXIMIZED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY KEPT DRY...WITH LOW POPS RETAINED FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

COCKRELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                64  88  67  93  68 /  40  40  40  10   5
BEAVER OK                  69  91  68  92  68 /  30  40  60  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              64  88  63  92  64 /  40  50  50  10   5
BORGER TX                  69  90  69  95  70 /  40  40  50  10  10
BOYS RANCH TX              66  92  67  95  68 /  40  40  40  10   5
CANYON TX                  65  90  66  95  69 /  50  40  40  10   5
CLARENDON TX               67  90  69  95  70 /  40  40  40  10  10
DALHART TX                 66  90  64  94  65 /  40  40  50  10   5
GUYMON OK                  68  89  66  93  67 /  40  40  60  20   5
HEREFORD TX                66  90  67  95  67 /  50  40  40  10   5
LIPSCOMB TX                70  91  69  93  69 /  40  30  60  20  20
PAMPA TX                   65  87  67  93  67 /  40  40  50  20  10
SHAMROCK TX                68  90  69  95  69 /  40  30  50  20  10
WELLINGTON TX              69  91  71  98  71 /  40  30  40  20  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

88/03




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