Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 270523
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1123 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.AVIATION...

/06Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO SOUTHERLY OR
SOUTHWESTERLY BY MORNING AND WILL REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KNOTS. BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING WINDS
WILL DECREASE AS MIXING SUBSIDES.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ON TAP THROUGH THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...BEFORE A COLD FRONT USHERS IN SOME COOLER AIR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

NORTHERLY WINDS IN WAKE OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
LAST NIGHT HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A SHADE BELOW AVERAGE TODAY...WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPS RUNNING IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. A NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN WESTERN UPPER RIDGING AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY HAS BROUGHT SOME PASSING CIRRUS TODAY...BUT
THAT/S ABOUT IT.

A QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER LOOKS TO ROUND OUT THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER
AND WELCOME IN DECEMBER. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY OFFERS
THE BEST CHANCE OF POSSIBLE RECORD WARMTH /RECORD HIGH OF 77F AT
AMARILLO/. THE WARMING TREND WILL START TOMORROW AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
RISE ACROSS THE REGION. MEANWHILE A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING CROSS-MOUNTAIN FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...WHICH WILL INDUCE DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IN THE
SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER/MID 70S IN THE WESTERN OK
PANHANDLE. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ZONAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PAC NW...MAINTAINING
BROAD LEE SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE PLAINS. RESULTANT LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...ALONG WITH THE ADDED COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING...WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
A FEW LOW 80S CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY REMAIN A LITTLE TRICKY...HINGING ON COLD
FRONTAL TIMING. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THIS FRONT WILL HOLD UP LONG
ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE IN ONE MORE MILD DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO ROUND
OUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. CURRENTLY EXPECTING THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO
THE OK PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TX PANHANDLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN
SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING...SETTING UP A
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST HIGH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT THAT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE FINE-TUNED OVER THE COMING DAYS. A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
LACK OF UPPER FORCING WILL PRECLUDE ANY PRECIP CHANCES WITH THE
FRONT.

WE/LL SEE A BRIEF SHOT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY IN THE
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS...BUT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO MODERATE QUICKLY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BENEATH A CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL UPPER
FLOW. MAY SEE ANOTHER FRONT AROUND MID NEXT WEEK...BUT NOT A LOT OF
AGREEMENT REGARDING THIS ATTM.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON THURSDAY...AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...APPROACHING RECORD
VALUES. WITH THIS WARMING...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN OK PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TX
PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY...THEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS ON THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST UNDER 15
MPH ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES WHERE THE LOWER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST...THUS NO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY AGAIN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/03




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