Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 270855
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
355 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A surface low over northeast New Mexico with a stationary frontal
boundary extending from the surface low eastward into northwest
Oklahoma is expected to lift north and east as a warm front today. An
upper high over the Great Basin Region will allow for a northerly to
northeasterly upper flow across the Panhandles today through
Thursday. The upper flow should transition to more northwesterly by
Thursday night or Friday as the upper high begins to build back
towards the Four Corners Region by this weekend. The frontal boundary
is expected to begin moving back to the south again by Thursday night
and Friday across the forecast area. Isolated convection expected
today through Thursday and should become more isolated to scattered
by Friday afternoon and evening as the front approaches from the
north and the northwesterly upper flow allows for upper level support
to track southeast out of the central and southern Rockies in the
form of a shortwave trough.

The CAMS models support the possibility of convection developing
across the eastern and south central Texas Panhandle by 18Z today and
then developing northward through the afternoon hours today. The 00Z
NAM also supports at least the possibility for convection developing
over the eastern and south central Texas Panhandle by 18Z today and
then convection developing across the western Panhandles between 18Z
today and 00Z Thursday. Models supporting a somewhat drier trend
after 00Z Thursday through about 00Z Friday with convection chances
increasing again Friday and Friday night and also by Saturday
evening/night.

Schneider

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                95  67  98  70  96 /  20  10  20  10  20
Beaver OK                  98  69  98  69  93 /  10  20  20  30  30
Boise City OK              95  65  95  65  95 /  20  20  10  30  20
Borger TX                  97  71  98  72  96 /  20  20  20  20  20
Boys Ranch TX              95  67  98  71  96 /  20  10  10  10  20
Canyon TX                  94  67  97  68  96 /  20  20  20  10  20
Clarendon TX               96  70  98  71  97 /  20  10  20  10  20
Dalhart TX                 95  66  96  68  95 /  20  10  10  20  20
Guymon OK                  97  68  98  68  95 /  10  20  10  30  30
Hereford TX                93  66  96  67  95 /  20  20  20  10  20
Lipscomb TX                98  69  99  70  93 /  20  20  20  30  30
Pampa TX                   96  68  98  69  95 /  20  10  20  20  20
Shamrock TX                98  70  99  70  96 /  20  10  20  20  20
Wellington TX              98  71 100  72  98 /  20  10  20  20  20

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

16/11



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