Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 280341 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1041 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THIS FORECAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS
TONIGHT WILL TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT AND THEN THEY
SHOULD VEER AROUND TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY SATURDAY EVENING AS A NEW LEE-
SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND A WEAK COLD
FRONT AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL THEN START TO VEER DURING
THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT DHT WHERE THEY WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE
RE-DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 10
KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS FORECAST AS VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
BETWEEN WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH EXISTS TODAY.
ASIDE FROM SOME THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY CLEAR AND
DRY AND THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE UPPER FLOW
PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY WITH THE FIRST OF ONLY TWO NOTABLE
MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 20
MPH OR HIGHER FOR A PERIOD BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE IN THE EVENING.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPERIENCED THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE WARMEST DAYS EXPECTED TO BE TOMORROW AND
WEDNESDAY.

THE SECOND OF TWO SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND THERE WILL BE A LOW PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING
NORTHWARD WITHIN SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO FORM. ONE WEDNESDAY THE LEE
TROUGH/DRYLINE LOOKS TO SHIFT EAST INTO OKLAHOMA.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/14




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