Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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945
FXUS64 KAMA 250901
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
401 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.Discussion...
Previous forecast remains largely unchanged with only minor
adjustments needed based on latest model guidance. Daily chances of
showers and thunderstorms are expected and we tried to better define
where/when highest probabilities are. We will continue to add more
detail with subsequent forecasts. Hazards for this forecast period
should be limited isolated marginally severe thunderstorms and the
potential for heavy rainfall amounts.

Two main synoptic scale features are of note for the short term. A
shortwave trough passing across the northern Rockies and a weak
upper low drifting slowly north from the Big Bend of Texas.
Convergence along a surface trough/weak front associated with the
northern stream wave will focus convective development this
afternoon across the northwest Texas Panhandle and the Oklahoma
Panhandle. This justifies fairly high probabilities in close
proximity to the front, probably in a narrower zone than currently
indicated. We have increased portions of the area to likely
category. Up to around 1,500 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon will be
present but deep layer shear sufficient for storm organization/persistence
will be just north of the area. Isolated brief episodes of damaging
winds may be possible from short lived storms given fairly deep dry
sub-cloud layer, but widespread severe weather is not expected. Heavy
rainfall amounts are possible given moist environment (model
projected PWAT values 1.25-1.5 inches) and slow storm motions.
Coverage should decrease overnight slowly as instability decreases,
although we kept low probabilities late in the night through Sunday
morning given presence of convergent surface boundary, convective
outflow and increasing large scale ascent from approaching upper low
from the south.

As diurnal destabilization occurs on Sunday coincident with the
northern edge of upper low, thunderstorm coverage will be higher
across most of the area, not just the northwest as has been the case
in prior days. Next week the flow aloft increases gradually and
shifts to northwesterly. A series of small scale difficult to time
shortwaves necessitate maintaining precipitation chances through the
week. Medium range guidance agreement decreases as the week goes on
with handling of these smaller waves and resultant surface front
positions.

BRB

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Amarillo TX                95  68  90  67  88 /  10  20  40  40  30
Beaver OK                  96  68  92  68  91 /  20  40  40  50  30
Boise City OK              94  63  84  62  86 /  40  60  30  20  20
Borger TX                  97  71  92  71  90 /  10  20  40  40  30
Boys Ranch TX              97  67  90  67  89 /  10  30  40  40  30
Canyon TX                  95  68  91  67  90 /   5  20  40  40  30
Clarendon TX               93  69  89  69  89 /   0  10  40  40  30
Dalhart TX                 97  64  89  64  87 /  30  60  40  40  30
Guymon OK                  98  67  90  67  89 /  20  60  40  50  30
Hereford TX                96  67  91  66  89 /  10  30  40  40  30
Lipscomb TX                94  69  92  69  90 /  10  20  40  50  30
Pampa TX                   93  69  90  68  88 /   5  20  40  40  30
Shamrock TX                93  71  91  70  91 /   0  10  40  40  30
Wellington TX              95  72  92  71  93 /   0   5  40  30  30

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/17



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