Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 261001
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
401 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. SOME
CHALLENGES EXIST FOR THIS FORECAST INCLUDING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY LATE WEEK...POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...AND TIMING OF A COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

A WEAK FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNRISE BRINGING
A PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DECREASE DURING
THE DAY AND GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY TOMORROW NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH
CONSIDERABLE HEIGHT RISES. LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXPAND AND
STRENGTHEN AS MEAN FLOW INCREASES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES. ITS ORIENTATION WILL PLACE THE PANHANDLES IN AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE NOVEMBER. NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY AND WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION. MODEL TRENDS IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF
THIS SHORTWAVE HAVE RESULTED IN A LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE THAN WAS
PREVIOUSLY DEPICTED. ALL MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE NOW HAS THE FRONT
ENTERING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
PROGRESSING THROUGH DURING THE EVENING. THIS HAS SIGNIFICANT
IMPLICATIONS FOR TEMPERATURES AND DECIDED TO INCREASE HIGHS ON
SUNDAY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE BLEND. EVEN IF MODELS ARE TOO SLOW
WITH THE FRONT...AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR
MASSES...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO
WARM SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE THE VALUES GIVEN BY THE BLEND WHICH HAS SOME
INFLUENCE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS/FORECASTS.

SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EMERGE IN MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST. THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR WARMING AFTER A SHORT
PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFOREMENTIONED POST FRONTAL
AIR MASS. ECMWF HAS A SHORTWAVE MOVING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE
MIDWEST BY LATE TUESDAY. GFS IS MORE PRONOUNCED WITH UPPER RIDGING
BEFORE A STRONGER MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.

BRB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS BUT EACH AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL TO AT OR BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR
AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA. A SHORT DURATION OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SEEMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONGEST 20 FOOT WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE MISALIGNED. BETTER POTENTIAL MAY EXIST ON SATURDAY
WHEN DEEPER MIXING MAY OCCUR.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                52  31  66  39  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  51  27  66  36  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              51  30  70  35  74 /   5   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  53  33  67  38  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              53  29  68  35  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  53  30  66  38  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               55  31  64  38  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 51  28  68  32  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  52  29  68  34  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                54  30  67  36  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                52  29  63  37  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   51  30  66  39  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                56  30  60  36  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              57  33  62  37  71 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/03





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