Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 262029
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
329 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level 594 decameter high pressure system sitting over the 4
corners region will continue to provide east to northeast flow across
the Panhandles. As we go through the rest of the work week, a 500
hPa northwesterly flow will return to the region as a low amplitude
meridional flow returns to the central CONUS. In-conjunction with a
south to southeast surface flow that will bring higher Td`s to the
region, latest 26/12Z shows diurnally driven convection with any
localized convergent boundaries across the Panhandles with the best
chances across the eastern Panhandle with the highest moisture values.
Some of the models are hinting at some more substantial QPF for the
eastern OK Panhandle and northeastern TX Panhandle as a shortwave
trough over western KS near s surface stationary boundary develops a
region of mid level PVA that will move SE in the NW flow and provide
an enhanced chance of precipitation in the eastern Panhandles late
Thursday night into Friday morning. SBCAPE values from latest 12Z
model data does show a range between 1000-1550 J/Kg, however, 0-6 km
shear is very limited. Further updates will be made to the forecast
as we get closer to the event. Otherwise, as we go Friday afternoon into
the weekend, the upper level high pressure will move east over our
region bring tranquil weather back into the region. Temperatures will
continue to remain above average as we go through the next several
days.

LFM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                69  94  69  96  70 /  20  20  20  10  20
Beaver OK                  69  96  69  96  69 /  10  20  20  10  30
Boise City OK              66  93  66  95  65 /  20  20  20  10  20
Borger TX                  72  96  73  98  72 /  20  20  20  10  20
Boys Ranch TX              69  95  68  98  71 /  20  20  20  10  10
Canyon TX                  69  94  68  96  69 /  20  20  20  10  10
Clarendon TX               70  93  70  96  71 /  20  20  20  20  10
Dalhart TX                 67  95  65  97  68 /  20  20  20  10  10
Guymon OK                  68  97  68  95  69 /  10  20  20  10  30
Hereford TX                67  93  68  96  69 /  20  20  20  10  10
Lipscomb TX                69  94  69  97  70 /  10  20  20  20  30
Pampa TX                   68  93  68  95  70 /  20  20  20  10  20
Shamrock TX                71  94  71  97  71 /  10  20  20  20  20
Wellington TX              72  95  72  99  72 /  20  20  20  20  20

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

2/29



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