Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 050333
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1033 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD IN OVER THE PANHANDLES THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL THREE TAF
SITES. CONVECTION MAY PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES TOWARDS 06Z
MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EAST OUT OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THE DALHART TAF SITE COULD
POSSIBLY BE AFFECTED BY THE CONVECTION BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z
MONDAY...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE
JUST TOO LOW AT THIS POINT. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT
WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY
15Z SUNDAY...AND THEN SHOULD DIMINISH GRADUALLY TO AROUND 15 KNOTS OR
SO MAINLY AT THE GUYMON AND DALHART TAF SITES BY 02Z OR 03Z MONDAY.
THE AMARILLO TAF SITE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 25
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLES WILL PREVAIL MAINTAINING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. BOTH THE RUC AND HRRR SHOWING
CONVECTION SHOULD ALREADY BE IMPACTING THE EASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES BY 00Z SUNDAY...HAVE DISCOUNTED THESE
MODELS FOR THE TAF FORECAST PACKAGE. INSTEAD...THE NAM APPEARS TO BE
MORE IN LINE AND KEPT ANY CONVECTION OUT OF THE THREE TAF SITES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN CASE THE CONVECTION DOES DEVELOP AND
BEGINS IMPACTING MOST OF THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS OR SO AFTER 01Z TO 02Z SUNDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 14Z TO 15Z SUNDAY FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTH
SOUTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF AREAS THAT COULD HELP TO PRODUCE AN ENHANCED AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEM TO BE IN THE NORTHEAST NEAR
A OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND IN THE NORTHWEST CLOSER TO THE
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION THAT COULD MOVE THIS WAY IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA GIVEN THESE FEATURES.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RELATIVELY DRY DAY AS THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...MORE MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION MAY MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS THE FAR WESTERN
PANHANDLES BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET A
BOOST ON SUNDAY FROM GUSTY SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD BE CLOSE
TO 100 AGAIN.

THE UPPER HIGH BREAKS DOWN AND IT ALLOWS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TO DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY STRONG TO SEVERE AND WILL LIKELY CARRY SOME PRETTY HEAVY
RAIN WITH THEM. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH ABOUT
THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN UNSTABLE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME AIR MASS
REMAINS IN PLACE.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/06






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