Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 272103
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
403 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK PER LATEST GUIDANCE...SO ONLY
SLIGHT TWEAKS BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE. IN THE SHORT TERM...A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL EDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE PANHANDLES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND THEN STALL OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THAT FRONT THIS AFTERNOON...A
FEW SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AN AXIS OF
WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND ABOUT 1500 J/KG OF WEAKLY CAPPED
INSTABILITY...FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT VERY STRONG ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...SO THESE
STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO BECOME ORGANIZED THIS EVENING AND SHOULD DIE
OFF AFTER SUNSET. ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WITH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT WILL
ALSO STRUGGLE TO BECOME VERY STRONG. WHEREVER THE FRONT STALLS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL ALSO SEE A CHANCE FOR PRECIP DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

THERE IS GENERALLY LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
DUE TO GROWING MODEL DISAGREEMENT AN UNUSUAL UPPER-AIR PATTERN FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND.
MEANWHILE REMNANTS OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY SKIRTING THIS
RIDGE TO OUR NORTH ARE FORECAST TO SPLIT AND DIVE AROUND TOWARDS THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND JOIN WITH A DEVELOPING WEAK UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER
THE WESTERN GULF COAST. ADDITIONALLY...TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE ERIKA
WILL BE ROUNDING THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. NEEDLESS TO SAY THIS COMPLEX INTERACTION OF
FEATURES COULD VERY WELL SHIFT THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOULD THAT MOISTURE PLUME EXTEND
OVER THE PANHANDLES...WOULD EXPECT A FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIP EARLY IN
THE WEEK. FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED A FEW SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES UNTIL MODELS RESOLVE THE DETAILS BETTER. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES GENERALLY EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

NF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                66  90  63  90  63 /  20  10  20   5   0
BEAVER OK                  66  92  61  92  62 /  40  10  10   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              63  87  59  89  61 /  40  10  10   5   5
BORGER TX                  69  93  65  92  66 /  30  10  10   5   0
BOYS RANCH TX              66  93  61  91  61 /  30  10  10   5   0
CANYON TX                  67  91  63  91  63 /  20  20  20   5   5
CLARENDON TX               68  93  65  91  64 /  20  20  20   5  10
DALHART TX                 64  90  60  90  59 /  40  10  10   5   5
GUYMON OK                  65  91  61  91  62 /  50   5  10   0   0
HEREFORD TX                66  91  62  91  62 /  20  20  20   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                69  93  62  91  62 /  30  20  20   0   0
PAMPA TX                   66  90  62  89  62 /  30  20  20   5   0
SHAMROCK TX                70  95  65  92  65 /  20  30  30   5  10
WELLINGTON TX              70  98  66  94  66 /  10  30  30   5  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

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