000
FXUS64 KAMA 182333
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
633 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS BLOWING UP IN FAR ERN COUNTIES IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SFC
DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TORNADO WATCH 171 IN EFFECT UNTIL
11 PM THIS EVENING. KEPT POPS IN THRU THE EVENING HOURS IN THAT AREA.
REMAINDER OF FCST AREA SHOULD BE PRECIP FREE TONIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAYS TSTMS WILL HEAD INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS STATES SUN AND MON WITH MINOR EMBEDDED IMPULSES ROTATING
ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS. RETAINED SLGT CHC POPS FAR NRN COUNTIES FOR
SUN AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...MOST
MODELS ARE DRY OR KEEP MAIN PRECIP SHIELD NORTH OF FCST AREA BECAUSE
OF TOO MUCH WESTERLY FLOW. DITTO FOR MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. DECIDED ON
A COMPROMISE BETWEEN MODEL QPF SOLUTIONS BY RESTRICTING SLGT CHC POPS
TO NRN ZONES ONLY.

TUE THRU WED SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS TX AND OK PNHDLS AS THE UPPER LOW
HEADS EWD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. UA PATTERN AMPLIFIES LATER NEXT
WEEK WITH SOME SEMBLANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MOVG ACROSS SRN PLAINS TUE THRU THURSDAY. HAVE RETAINED SLGT CHC POPS
THU AND THU NIGHT ACROSS THE FCST AREA AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF
UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVERHEAD LONGER AS PER SOME MODEL
SOLUTIONS...THEN POPS CHANCES WILL BE REDUCED. ALSO KEPT IN SLGT CHC
POPS FRI INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS PER COMPROMISE BETWEEN GFS AND
ECMWF. AGAIN...IF RIDGE AXIS HOLDS ON LONGER OVER OUR FCST AREA THAN
PROGGED...POP THREAT WOULD BE REDUCED. TIME WILL TELL.

ANDRADE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN THE RED FLAG WARNING AREA UNTIL
AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING. ELEVATED TO MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN SUNDAY TO THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE DUE TO WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ALONG WITH FORECAST
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 10 TO 15 PERCENT. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY
AT THIS TIME.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                57  89  52  83  50 /   0   0   0   5   5
BEAVER OK                  59  85  50  80  50 /  10  20  10  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              53  83  45  77  47 /   0  20  10  20  20
BORGER TX                  61  89  56  83  53 /   0   5   0  10  10
BOYS RANCH TX              56  87  51  83  49 /   0   0   0  10  10
CANYON TX                  56  89  52  83  49 /   0   0   0   5   5
CLARENDON TX               60  92  56  86  53 /   5   0   0   5   5
DALHART TX                 52  85  46  80  47 /   0   5   5  10  10
GUYMON OK                  58  85  49  80  49 /   0  20  10  20  20
HEREFORD TX                56  88  52  84  49 /   0   0   0   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                59  87  51  82  52 /  20  20   5  10  20
PAMPA TX                   59  88  53  83  51 /   5   0   0   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                61  91  56  87  54 /  20   0   0   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              62  93  59  90  56 /  20   0   0   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...DONLEY...
     GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...
     OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN.

OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$