Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
000
FXUS64 KAMA 171138
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
638 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024
The H500 cutoff low in the southwestern CONUS should remain
stationary for the short term period. A surface trough sweeps
through our CWA this morning, while the upper level flow stays
west-southwesterly. By Monday, a surface high will move across
the area as the H500 low pressure system prepares to transition
east.
Some isolated shower are ongoing for a few areas in the northern
Texas Panhandle, but accumulation has been light so far tonight
and looks to linger as such. Later on this morning, the better
moisture exits our region to the south, and chances for
precipitation dwindle as the day goes on. Mentionable PoPs are now
restricted to the far southwestern Texas Panhandle for the
morning and early afternoon hours. QPF will also be light today
for areas that receive precipitation, generally being less than
one tenth of an inch. Winds will continue to be light today and
Monday, and clouds will slowly clear out starting from the
northeast. By tonight into tomorrow morning, sky coverage will be
mostly clear. Temperatures will also slowly rise for the next few
days. Highs will start to approach the mid 60`s, but Monday
morning lows could be in the lower 30`s as a result of radiational
cooling. Clear skies and light northerly winds are forecast to
support this process.
Rangel
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024
Most models agree that the upper level low will get the boot out of
Arizona sometime Tuesday night. The models do not agree on how
fast the low moves east across New Mexico and the Panhandles the
following days. At any rate, it should bring enough moisture,
lift, and instability to provide the Panhandles another chance of
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night with a few
wrap- around showers possible on Thursday. Will leave the rest of
the forecast dry for now. However, there are some models that
want to bring another chance of rain on Friday sometime in
association with a fast moving weak upper level disturbance moving
through the zonal or northwest flow.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024
TAFs are VFR for this period. Sky coverage and ceilings are
expected to improve throughout the day. Any precipitation we get
today will be non-impactful and away from all TAF sites. Winds at
the surface will start of breezy for AMA and DHT. Sustained winds
may get up to 15 kts at both sites, but lighter winds will return
to these areas by 20Z.
Rangel
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 60 31 62 37 / 10 10 0 0
Beaver OK 62 26 62 36 / 0 0 0 0
Boise City OK 56 28 60 35 / 0 0 0 0
Borger TX 63 34 65 39 / 10 0 0 0
Boys Ranch TX 62 31 65 35 / 20 10 0 0
Canyon TX 59 31 63 35 / 20 10 0 0
Clarendon TX 58 32 61 38 / 10 10 0 0
Dalhart TX 57 27 61 32 / 10 10 0 0
Guymon OK 60 27 62 35 / 0 0 0 0
Hereford TX 58 31 62 35 / 40 10 0 0
Lipscomb TX 62 29 63 37 / 0 0 0 0
Pampa TX 60 31 62 39 / 10 0 0 0
Shamrock TX 62 32 63 37 / 10 0 0 0
Wellington TX 60 32 62 37 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...55