Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 171138
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
638 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

The H500 cutoff low in the southwestern CONUS should remain
stationary for the short term period. A surface trough sweeps
through our CWA this morning, while the upper level flow stays
west-southwesterly. By Monday, a surface high will move across
the area as the H500 low pressure system prepares to transition
east.

Some isolated shower are ongoing for a few areas in the northern
Texas Panhandle, but accumulation has been light so far tonight
and looks to linger as such. Later on this morning, the better
moisture exits our region to the south, and chances for
precipitation dwindle as the day goes on. Mentionable PoPs are now
restricted to the far southwestern Texas Panhandle for the
morning and early afternoon hours. QPF will also be light today
for areas that receive precipitation, generally being less than
one tenth of an inch. Winds will continue to be light today and
Monday, and clouds will slowly clear out starting from the
northeast. By tonight into tomorrow morning, sky coverage will be
mostly clear. Temperatures will also slowly rise for the next few
days. Highs will start to approach the mid 60`s, but Monday
morning lows could be in the lower 30`s as a result of radiational
cooling. Clear skies and light northerly winds are forecast to
support this process.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Most models agree that the upper level low will get the boot out of
Arizona sometime Tuesday night. The models do not agree on how
fast the low moves east across New Mexico and the Panhandles the
following days. At any rate, it should bring enough moisture,
lift, and instability to provide the Panhandles another chance of
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night with a few
wrap- around showers possible on Thursday. Will leave the rest of
the forecast dry for now. However, there are some models that
want to bring another chance of rain on Friday sometime in
association with a fast moving weak upper level disturbance moving
through the zonal or northwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024

TAFs are VFR for this period. Sky coverage and ceilings are
expected to improve throughout the day. Any precipitation we get
today will be non-impactful and away from all TAF sites. Winds at
the surface will start of breezy for AMA and DHT. Sustained winds
may get up to 15 kts at both sites, but lighter winds will return
to these areas by 20Z.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                60  31  62  37 /  10  10   0   0
Beaver OK                  62  26  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              56  28  60  35 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  63  34  65  39 /  10   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              62  31  65  35 /  20  10   0   0
Canyon TX                  59  31  63  35 /  20  10   0   0
Clarendon TX               58  32  61  38 /  10  10   0   0
Dalhart TX                 57  27  61  32 /  10  10   0   0
Guymon OK                  60  27  62  35 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                58  31  62  35 /  40  10   0   0
Lipscomb TX                62  29  63  37 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   60  31  62  39 /  10   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                62  32  63  37 /  10   0   0   0
Wellington TX              60  32  62  37 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...55


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