Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46

000
FXUS64 KAMA 302154
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
454 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON FEATURES A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR NORTHEAST...AND THE NEXT UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
DIGGING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST IS QUICKLY ON ITS HEELS. AT THE
SURFACE...THE PANHANDLES REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A COLD AIR
MASS. A FEW CHANCES AT RAIN EARLY THIS WEEK...A BRIEF DRIER AND
WARMER MIDWEEK STRETCH...AND THEN THE POSSIBILITY FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO GET OUT OF THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...AND THE COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE GONE AHEAD
AND ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR CIMARRON COUNTY...AS TEMPERATURES
THERE HAVE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF DROPPING TO OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT. THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
INITIATE ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE COOLER SURFACE AIRMASS TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW AND POSSIBLY LEAD TO SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
BEST CHANCES CURRENTLY FAVOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES
TONIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TOMORROW. WHERE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE COLDEST TONIGHT /IN THE FAR WESTERN OK PANHANDLE AND
NW TX PANHANDLE/ THESE SHOWERS COULD MIX IN A LITTLE SNOW AS WELL.
NEITHER RAIN NOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOO GREAT
WITH THESE SHOWERS.

NF

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
BY MONDAY THE SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...WHILE THE UPPER
LOW PULLS EASTWARD AND AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES.
THIS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL BY
MIDWEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COULD STILL ALLOW FOR A PASSING
SHORTWAVE TO BRING SOME PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
ON TUESDAY...THOUGH CHANCES ARE LOW AT THIS TIME. MAY HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE
PANHANDLES AND ALLOWS FOR SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER LOW TO
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. BY THAT TIME SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE INCREASING MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE ACROSS OUR
AREA...WHILE GREATER MIXING OVER NEW MEXICO WILL STRENGTHEN THE
DRYLINE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES. CURRENTLY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE ON SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLES. MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG COULD BE POSSIBLE BY
LATE EVENING ALONG WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF OVER 50 KTS. THIS IS
STILL A WAYS OFF...BUT THE ECMWF WHICH HAD BEEN FASTER WITH THE LATE
WEEK SYSTEM HAS NOW COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOWER GFS
AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. SINCE ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A
PRONOUNCED OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK...FELT COMFORTABLE LEANING TOWARD THE SLOWER PATTERN
SOLUTION.

NF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                37  48  37  58  39 /  30  60  20   5   5
BEAVER OK                  39  51  38  59  36 /  20  60  40  10   5
BOISE CITY OK              33  44  34  56  35 /  50  60  40   5  10
BORGER TX                  39  50  39  59  42 /  30  60  30   5   5
BOYS RANCH TX              37  50  37  60  38 /  40  60  20   5   5
CANYON TX                  36  49  36  59  38 /  50  60  20   5   5
CLARENDON TX               42  54  41  60  41 /  10  50  20   5   5
DALHART TX                 36  47  36  57  36 /  50  60  30   5  10
GUYMON OK                  38  50  38  59  37 /  40  60  40  10  10
HEREFORD TX                37  49  36  60  38 /  60  60  20   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                41  53  40  59  39 /  10  50  40  10   5
PAMPA TX                   38  49  38  58  40 /  20  50  20   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                44  56  42  61  41 /  10  50  20   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              45  59  44  63  42 /  10  30  20   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

15/6



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.