Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 201638 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1138 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THIS FORECAST AND
THEY WILL VEER FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST TO SOUTH. SKIES SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. HOWEVER...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT SOME LOW CLOUDS OR
FOG AT THE AMA TAF SITE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE NOT INSERTED THIS
POSSIBILITY IN THE TAF JUST YET AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BRIEF LIGHT FOG WITH MVFR
VISIBILITIES COULD DEVELOP THROUGH 14Z AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY AT KAMA AND KDHT...BUT NOT CONFIDENT TO INCLUDE AT THIS
TIME.

KNS

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

FOR TODAY...INSERTED PATCHY FOG ACROSS SWRN AND SCNTRL TX PNHDL TIL
MID MORNING BASED ON CURERNT OBSERVATIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
NRN MEXICO MAY SEND A MINOR VORT LOBE CLOSE ENUF TO THE SW AND SCNTRL
PART OF THE TX PNHDL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO CAUSE AT
LEAST A SMALL THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SLGT CHC POPS FOR THIS
AREA DURG THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ARE PLAUSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND MOST OF TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN DRY ACROSS
THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER WRN US UPPER LEVEL TROF...WHICH
IS NOW PROGGED BY ALL SHORT RANGE MODELS TO BE FASTER MOVING ACROSS THE
CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS. CONSIDERING GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO...BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE WED AND EARLY WED
EVENING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE WED NIGHT.
HAVE DONE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POP GRIDS FOR WED AND WED NIGHT TO
BETTER ACCOUNT FOR LATEST MODEL TRENDS. RETAINED SLGT CHC POPS FOR SW
TX PNHDL FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. BENIGN WEATHER SEEN FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR STRONGER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND. SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT APPROACHES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK EXIST. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE.

ANDRADE/BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/14




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