Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 121056
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
456 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE...ALL SITES ARE CURRENTLY VFR BUT PATCHY FOG SATURDAY
MORNING WILL LIKELY BRING ALL SITES DOWN AT LEAST TO MVFR IF NOT
LOWER. FOR NOW HAVE JUST GONE MVFR AFTER 08Z BUT UPDATES MAY BE
NEEDED IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON DENSENESS. WINDS MAY GUST AT KAMA
FOR A COUPLE HOURS FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PUT INTO TAFS.
WINDS WILL SWING FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY BY 18Z AND KDHT MAY
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY 08Z.

BEAT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CST FRI FEB 12 2016/

DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR DEPARTURES FROM EARLIER FORECAST.  DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.  FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURN
BRIEFLY ON SATURDAY...AND MORE SO ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  DETAILS
ADDRESSED IN FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRENDS TO MORE ZONAL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
WESTERN CONUS RIDGE CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY.  DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT RESUMES SUNDAY AS NEXT WESTERN RIDGE TAKES SHAPE.  SHORTWAVE
TROF PASSES ON SUNDAY NIGHT.  WESTERN RIDGE FLATTENS AND TRANSLATES
EAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW RESUMES
THURSDAY AS NEXT POTENTIALLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF OR CLOSED LOW
MOVES ASHORE.  IN SPITE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT...DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL AS FEW CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
LIGHT NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING BECOME EAST AND SOUTHEAST BY THIS
EVENING.  SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
WITH BRIEFLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
WESTERN SECTIONS.  LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTH...NORTHWEST...AND
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...MONDAY AND TUESDAY
RESPECTIVELY WITH NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.  SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS RESUME ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE PANHANDLES.  ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY ACROSS ALL OF THE PANHANDLES...WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
PANHANDLES AS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE FURTHER.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

16/3


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