Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 161403
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
903 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Scattered to numerous rain showers are moving across the
Panhandles at this time. Most locations are only receiving very
light amounts, with all mesonets and other observational sites
having less than a tenth of an inch at this time. Shower coverage
is higher than CAMs had anticipated so have increased PoPs through
early afternoon with this forecast update. Rain showers will
remain on the light side so very little accumulation of rainfall
is expected once again today.

Muscha

&&

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 402 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

The H500 low pressure system continues it`s slow progression
eastward through the short term period. However, there are
concerns that this low will be displaced further west than what
models have been depicting as we approach Sunday.

Rain chances will make a resurgence later this morning, and
continue until the late afternoon hours. PoPs are now area wide,
though the main area of interest in our CWA will be the southern
Texas Panhandle. Confidence for precipitation decreases for
locations further north, but isolated showers that become
displaced from the main system are not out of the question for
those areas. Winds will remain light and variable at the surface,
while temperatures stay cool in the 50`s and lower 60`s thanks to
mostly overcast cloud coverage and potential precipitation.

Sunday will persist with cool temperatures, and winds will switch
from the north as a surface trough pushes through in the morning.
Current observations of our synoptic pattern this morning,
reinforce concerns of the closed low being forced westward
earlier than what models have displayed. This is contingent on a
stronger high pressure system in the northwest CONUS, or a more
southerly track of the main jet stream trough. As a result, this
may limit PoPs to the western Panhandles, and reduce QPF overall
as the system retreats. Therefore NBM PoPs have been reduced area
wide, but western zones still have a fair chance at seeing
additional showers Sunday morning and afternoon at this time.

Rangel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

The upper level low over the southwest U.S. will finally lift out
across New Mexico on Wednesday and across the Panhandles Wednesday
night into Thursday morning.  This will be the timeframe for the
best chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region during
the work week.  Monday and Tuesday should remain dry as the low
remains well to our west and the Panhandles are under more of a
ridge between the upper low and the large broad trough across the
eastern U.S.  The dynamics from the upper low will likely be strong
enough to bring a few thunderstorms to the region Wednesday
afternoon through Wednesday night.  Then a few wrap-around showers
will be possible in the eastern Panhandles Thursday as the low
moves to our east.

Highs will be the coolest on Monday with readings in the upper 50`s
to the mid 60`s.  Then temperatures will the warmest Wednesday
through Friday with readings generally in the 70`s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

MVFR ceilings have already begun at AMA and DHT, and are expected
to continue until the late afternoon hours. Showers will move
through DHT and AMA intermediately but no major impacts are
anticipated. GUY will be VFR through this TAF period, and showers
are still not expected at this time. Winds will remain light and
variable today.

Rangel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                56  39  55  32 /  70  10  20  20
Beaver OK                  64  39  62  27 /  30  10   0   0
Boise City OK              56  34  54  27 /  30  20  40   0
Borger TX                  61  42  60  34 /  60  10  10  10
Boys Ranch TX              57  39  55  31 /  70  20  40  20
Canyon TX                  55  39  54  31 /  70  10  40  30
Clarendon TX               55  41  57  34 /  70  10  20  10
Dalhart TX                 56  35  53  27 /  50  20  50  10
Guymon OK                  61  36  59  26 /  30  10  10   0
Hereford TX                56  38  54  31 /  70  20  50  40
Lipscomb TX                63  41  62  29 /  40  10  10   0
Pampa TX                   59  41  59  32 /  60  10  10  10
Shamrock TX                58  43  60  34 /  70  10  10  10
Wellington TX              56  44  60  34 /  70  10  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...55


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