092
FXUS64 KAMA 301204
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
704 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Today, quasi-zonal flow aloft will promote lee surface troughing to
our west, driving a southwesterly breeze across much of the
Panhandles. With heights aloft building as well, expect temperatures
to reach the mid 80s to mid 90s. These downslope winds will also
lead to RH values in the single digits and lower teens - with the
breeze light by our standards, only elevated fire danger is favored
to develop. Late this afternoon and evening, low-level moisture
return could presumably skirt the far SE TX Panhandle but the vast
majority of guidance keeps this to our east. Thus, while convection
could result as a very weak shortwave ejects eastward as peak
heating is reached, am not expecting any of this to develop in the
Panhandles. Have kept a 10 PoP only in the greater Dodson area but
elected not to mention thunderstorms at all. In the off chance
convection were to occur, a stray damaging wind gust would be
possible given the dry and very warm conditions.

Wednesday, flow aloft becomes more southwesterly with lee surface
troughing shifting a bit to the north ever so slightly. While dry
and very warm conditions are expected once again, moisture return
will likely reach the Panhandles by late afternoon, allowing for
around 3000 J/kg of MLCAPE to develop in the eastern Panhandles.
Progged soundings suggest that capping at around 750-800mb may
inhibit convection from developing, much like the last two weeks.
Compared to the past two mid-week convective initiation failures,
shear profiles, while supportive of rotating updrafts, are less
impressive, particularly in the low levels. Thus, Wednesday
afternoon and evening bring yet another conditional risk for severe
storms, this time primarily with a risk for large hail and damaging
winds with perhaps a tornado. Progged 700mb theta-E doesn`t suggest
much mid-level help will be on the way, so am highly skeptical
convection will occur in our CWA. Additionally, subtle trend in the
past few runs of guidance has been toward less of the area remaining
in the moist sector. Have therefore attempted to restrict areal
coverage of thunderstorm mentions compared to NBM output. West of
the dryline, with RH values in the single digits once again and a
small step upward in winds, critical conditions may develop. Have
expanded the Fire Weather Watch slightly.

Ferguson

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

A cold front is expected to move through Thursday, although the
timing of the front is highly in question, it will pull temperatures
back at least into the 70s for the north, and depending on timing the
south could be upper 70s to lower 80s.  Pops are below mentionable
at this time, and may be a day of decision to raise them, as models
struggle with where the front will stall out, and that boundary may
be able to get some storms trigger, in the evening, and possibly
overnight.  Overnight looks more promising along the boundary as
most models are depicting a shortwave to move through at that time.
In fact the quasi-zonal/southwest flow will continue through the
weekend with several waves moving across the Panhandles.  And this
is depicted with the pops in the 30 to 40 percent chance over the
weekend for the majority of the Panhandles. Overall temperatures
will likely hold in the 70s to near 80 through the weekend, given
the warm southwest flow, but ample cloud cover. As we head into
Monday it`s looking like a dryslot situation where we`ll be under
strong southwest flow ahead of the next system.  This may be a
decent Fire Weather setup, as winds look pretty strong with RH
values in the teens.  But a lot will depend on the moisture in the
days prior.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 703 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

VFR conditions are favored over the next 24 hours. Main concern
may be the return of LLWS close to the end of the period, but
confidence was too low to include with this issuance.

Ferguson

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are probable in the western
Panhandles Wednesday as downslope winds continue, leading to
single digit RH values. With 700/850mb winds increasing to around
30 knots, surface winds out of the southwest look to be just
strong enough to contribute to RFTI values, pushing these into the
critical category. That being said, lack of a well-defined LLTR
and the relatively low nature of those winds suggest highly
aggressive fire behavior is unlikely.

Ferguson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                89  57  92  55 /   0   0  10  10
Beaver OK                  93  55  91  55 /   0   0  20  20
Boise City OK              86  45  88  47 /   0   0   0  10
Borger TX                  95  58  97  57 /   0   0  10  10
Boys Ranch TX              91  51  94  53 /   0   0  10  10
Canyon TX                  89  56  91  54 /   0   0  10  10
Clarendon TX               90  60  91  58 /   0   0  20  30
Dalhart TX                 88  44  89  47 /   0   0  10  10
Guymon OK                  90  48  91  51 /   0   0  10  10
Hereford TX                89  55  92  53 /   0   0  10  10
Lipscomb TX                93  59  90  58 /   0  10  30  30
Pampa TX                   91  58  91  56 /   0   0  10  10
Shamrock TX                92  60  87  58 /  10  10  40  40
Wellington TX              92  61  87  59 /  10  10  40  50

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for TXZ001-002-006-007-011-012-016.

OK...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for OKZ001.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...77