Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
000
FXUS64 KAMA 151115 AAA
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
615 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
In the upper levels, there was a cutoff low moving southwest near
SAN, a high was just off of the Washington coast and there was a
broad ridge over the eastern third of the U.S. A weak vort max was
moving northeast from Mexico into southwest Texas. A southwest flow
remained over the Panhandles on the eastern side of the broad trough
that held the Southern California low.
The weak vort max moving into southwest Texas is expected to help
develop showers and thunderstorms in that area just before sunrise.
This area of rain is then expected to slowly lift north northeast
across the Panhandles late this morning into the afternoon. However,
the rain is expected to weaken and decrease in coverage as it moves
over the Panhandles. So again, the best chance of rain will remain
mainly over the southwest half of the Texas Panhandle.
Another upper level disturbance is expected to bring another shot of
rain on Saturday, with the southwest favored again. Rainfall totals
ending Saturday night are expected to be generally under 0.25", but
there could be some places in the southwest Texas Panhandle that
receive near 0.33".
Highs both today and Saturday are expected to be in the 50`s with a
few 40`s near the New Mexico state line and a few 60`s near the
Oklahoma state line.
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
A closed upper low is expected to be positioned over parts of New
Mexico, east of the four corners region, by the start of the
extended period 7am Sunday. This low pressure system is forecast
to move back and forth above the southwestern CONUS, due to
thermodynamic influences from another large, strong trough in the
eastern half of the states, and a high pressure system in the
northwest CONUS. By Wednesday and Thursday, the eastern trough
will push out into the Atlantic, and the high pressure center in
the west will weaken. This should allow the upper low to finally
traverse across our CWA; however, it`s strength and position is
still a topic of uncertainty amongst long range guidance. Behind
this upper low, zonal flow should take over the area by next
weekend.
Precipitation looks to continue into Sunday, but higher chances
will favor the western half of the combined Panhandles. If our
low pressure system can move further to the east before it gets
repositioned, PoPs could extend further east as well.
Unfortunately, many model ensemble members of the NBM and LREF do
not depict this outcome. Additionally, deterministic models like
the GFS and ECMWF have the low positioned even further west than
the ensembles. So, a reduction of PoPs is not out of the question
either. By virtue of this precariousness, we have opted to leave
in the NBM`s suggested PoPs for now. PoPs have a chance to return
later this week by Wednesday, mostly in the form of showers with
some thunderstorm chances in the east. High temperatures should be
mild in the 60`s and 70`s, and fire weather conditions are
forecast to be suppressed as a result of increased moisture
availability and light to breezy wind speeds throughout the week.
Rangel
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
MVFR cigs are expected to prevail through this forecast at DHT.
MVFR cigs should improve to VFR at GUY and AMA by late this
afternoon. Some rain showers will be possible at DHT and AMA from
about noon until late this afternoon. Gusty northeast winds will
gradually decrease to 10 knots or less by late this afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 51 36 54 38 / 50 10 50 10
Beaver OK 59 33 62 40 / 0 10 20 10
Boise City OK 46 30 54 35 / 40 10 30 20
Borger TX 56 38 59 41 / 30 10 40 10
Boys Ranch TX 51 36 54 38 / 60 20 40 20
Canyon TX 50 36 53 37 / 60 20 50 20
Clarendon TX 56 38 54 41 / 50 10 50 10
Dalhart TX 46 30 53 34 / 50 20 30 20
Guymon OK 54 31 59 38 / 10 10 20 10
Hereford TX 50 36 53 37 / 60 20 50 20
Lipscomb TX 59 36 60 41 / 10 10 20 10
Pampa TX 55 37 57 39 / 30 10 40 10
Shamrock TX 59 38 58 42 / 20 10 40 10
Wellington TX 60 40 57 42 / 30 10 50 10
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...15