Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 271101 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
601 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE GUY TAF SITE
THIS MORNING. THINKING RIGHT NOW IS THAT THE DHT AND AMA TAF SITES
WILL REMAIN DRY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN THEY
WILL HEAD THIS WAY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE BEST CHANCES OF
ANY TSRA THIS EVENING WOULD BE AT DHT AND GUY. WILL LEAVE THE MENTION
OF ANY TSRA OUT OF THIS FORECAST BEYOND THIS MORNING AS CONFIDENCE IN
THE TIMING AND COVERAGE REMAINS LOW. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE TRANSITION TO A COOLER AND WETTER PATTERN BEGINS TODAY...WITH
THIS PATTERN EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK.

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A COMPACT BUT POTENT CLOSED
UPPER LOW FOR JULY SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS
THIS LOW CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST TODAY...IT WILL CARVE OUT A
BROADER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE THAT
HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE AREA LATELY BEGINNING TO RETROGRADE IN
RESPONSE. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES TODAY...BUT LIKELY STALL OUT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TX
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE EVENTUALLY BEING SHOVED SOUTH OF THE
CWA ALTOGETHER TONIGHT. ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OK PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TX PANHANDLE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ADVANCE EAST/NORTHEAST BEFORE EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATING LATER THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE INITIALLY LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND NORTHEAST NM IN THE POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW.
WITH THE TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
RETROGRADES...THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE INTO THE
PANHANDLES BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST THEN
SPREADING ACROSS MORE OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WE/LL
LIKELY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT AS THE NOCTURNAL LLJ STRENGTHENS...PRODUCING ENHANCED WARM
AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT...WHICH COMBINED WITH A
CONTINUED MONSOONAL MOISTURE FEED WILL BUMP PWATS INTO THE 1.5 TO
1.75 INCH RANGE. WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL RESULT IN SLOW STORM
MOTIONS...WITH WILL FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING. WE COULD ALSO SEE A FEW
SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
0-1KM MLCAPES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 25 KTS OR LESS
SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. AFTER
MUCH OF THE AREA SAW HIGHS IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...TEMPERATURES WILL START TO COOL DOWN TODAY ALTHOUGH THE MORE
NOTABLE COOLING WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL TOMORROW.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD CONTINUES TO
LOOK QUITE WET WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE PANHANDLES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
/PWATS OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES/ THANKS TO SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH A CONTINUED MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP ALOFT.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DAILY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO
AND NM...THEN ADVANCE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PANHANDLES ABOARD THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THE NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL BE
A PLAYER DURING THIS PERIOD...NOT ONLY HELPING TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION
WORKING INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT
ALSO LIKELY LEADING TO SOME LOCAL ELEVATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
AID CONVECTIVE CHANCES...AND IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE WILL IMPACT THE AREA IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TIMEFRAME. IN FACT...THE APPROACH OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND
RESULTANT STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ CURRENTLY LOOK VERY FAVORABLE FOR
AN MCS TO IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PANHANDLES/. THIS STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND
THUS HAVE RAISED POPS PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FLOODING WILL BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAIN...AND A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY VERY WELL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME...HOWEVER A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT
ON ANY GIVEN DAY GIVEN ANTICIPATED POCKETS OF INSTABILITY
CHARACTERIZED BY CAPES GENERALLY IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR UPWARDS OF 30 KTS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...IT APPEARS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE GETS SHUNTED SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE PANHANDLES. HOWEVER...WILL HANG ONTO SOME SMALL POPS AS THE FLOW
ALOFT DOES REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY. WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW TRIES TO VEER TO MORE NORTHERLY...KEEPING
THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO OUR WEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE DISPLACED TO OUR WEST AND A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES.
OF COURSE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND ANTICIPATED RAIN WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO THE COOL DOWN...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S
AND 80S AFTER TODAY.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL KEEP MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ABOVE 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...WITH INTERMITTENT
RAIN CHANCES. THUS NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/08




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