Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 210414
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1114 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.Aviation...
VFR conditions to persist for the first few hours of this TAF cycle.
Seeing the expected overnight stratus building across western
Oklahoma. We should see this stratus build first across the southern
Texas Panhandle to affect KAMA first around 09z before spreading
northward towards KGUY. This stratus should diminishing by the late
morning hours as winds increase. Have inserted mention of vicinity
thunder after 21z for all terminals as this is the best wind for
storms to impact the terminals.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /Issued 417 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016/

Discussion...
No real departures from earlier forecast.  Rich, deep moisture has
continued to flow into the the eastern 2/3 of the Panhandles, with
surface dewpoints holding strong in mid-50s to lower-60s.  Mid-level
shortwave ridge and its warmer temperatures should keep thunderstorm
development at bay tonight.  Aforementioned moist low-level flow
will likely result in another round of overnight stratus and patchy
fog.

Potential for severe thunderstorms still exists for Saturday and
Sunday, with Sunday and Sunday night being the periods of greater
concern.  Low-level jet intensifies both evenings, with stronger
mid-level flow on Sunday leading to increased shear.  All severe
weather types will be possible Sunday afternoon through Sunday night,
including isolated tornadoes and heavy rains, particularly across the
eastern half of the forecast area.

Models are bullish on maintaining moist low-level flow, with any
daily advancement of dryline being limited...then followed by a quick
westward retreat both Saturday and Sunday evenings.  This leads us
to spread pops farther west through the weekend.

Deep southwest flow develops Monday, likely keeping dryline east of
Panhandles.  Will retain slight chance pops in far eastern sections
Monday through Tuesday, as offered by blended pops.  Dry all
sections Tuesday night through Friday, with breezy to windy
conditions expected on Thursday and possibly Wednesday.  03

Cockrell

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14



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