Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
000
FXUS64 KAMA 150536 AAB
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1236 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024
18z WV satellite shows an upper low over S NV with southwesterly
flow aloft ahead of this feature over the Panhandles. At the
surface, cold front pushed south overnight, leading to cooler
temperatures, lighter winds out of the north, and mostly cloudy
skies this morning. Precip guidance suggested could occur in the far
northwestern Panhandles has not materialized, with CAO/DHT remaining
dry and no precip recorded at the Kenton OK Mesonet site.
Main concern in the short term is if any disturbances eject
northeastward from the upper low generate enough lift for precip to
develop. Some appreciable low level moisture is in place following
the frontal passage as evidenced by the presence of low clouds on
satellite and some of this should remain in place as surface winds
increasingly gain an upslope easterly component in the wake of the
frontal passage. Best chance for this looks to be Friday afternoon
when most guidance has a shortwave ejecting northeastward and
NAM/RAP/HRRR all suggest just enough moisture in the column for
precip to occur. That said, amounts would be light given the
marginal moisture. Given the above, have generally tried to keep
PoPs toward the low end of consensus blends outside of 18z- 00z
Friday afternoon, when PoPs were boosted above NBM using other
short term consensus blends. As for precip type, progged soundings
at CAO/DHT suggest a bit of snow could occur, particularly if the
small shots at precip overnight tonight pan out. Have therefore
gone with mentions for both rain and snow. Finally, given
aforementioned moisture and upslope winds, have moved forecast
highs Friday toward the cooler side of consensus compared to NBM,
which is several degrees warmer than many sources of guidance.
Ferguson
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024
The upper level low pressure system is expected to meander around
the southwestern states from Saturday through Tuesday, then translate
eastward towards the southern high plains by Wednesday. Medium range
models differ some with respect to track and timing of this particular
feature, which is not too surprising given this upper level low is
cutoff from the main flow pattern. That said, confidence is low on
how the precipitation threat will evolve during the long term periods.
Therefore, NBM pops and temperatures were utilized for all periods
of the long term forecast. It also appears based on the latest model
runs and ensembles that the thermodynamic temperature profiles
favor light rain as the primary precipitation type.
02
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Fri Mar 15 2024
DHT should be generally IFR through this forecast until about mid
day when cigs should lift to MVFR. Some light rain will be
possible in the afternoon, but it should not take conditions below
MVFR. GUY should see MVFR conditions through the early afternoon
and then conditions should improve to VFR. AMA should see MVFR
cigs fall into the IFR range before sunrise and then cigs should
return to MVFR by late morning. Some rain showers will be possible
at AMA from the late morning through mid afternoon. Conditions are
then expected to improve to VFR after the rain moves away this
afternoon.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 52 36 53 38 / 30 10 40 10
Beaver OK 59 33 62 39 / 10 0 20 10
Boise City OK 48 30 53 33 / 30 10 30 10
Borger TX 57 37 56 40 / 20 0 30 10
Boys Ranch TX 52 35 54 37 / 40 10 40 10
Canyon TX 51 36 52 38 / 40 20 40 10
Clarendon TX 56 38 53 41 / 20 10 40 10
Dalhart TX 48 30 50 33 / 50 10 40 20
Guymon OK 54 31 60 36 / 20 0 30 10
Hereford TX 51 35 51 37 / 50 20 40 10
Lipscomb TX 59 35 61 41 / 10 0 20 10
Pampa TX 56 36 57 39 / 20 0 30 10
Shamrock TX 59 39 57 43 / 10 0 40 10
Wellington TX 59 41 56 43 / 20 10 40 20
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...15