000
FXUS64 KAMA 221124 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
624 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONE AREA OF CONCERN IS A LOW LEVEL JET
THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 03Z...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR. HOWEVER...THINK THIS IS UNLIKELY GIVEN THAT SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD STAY BETWEEN 10 AND 15KT...AND THE MAX WIND SPEED IN THE JET
IS EXPECTED TO BE 40KT...THUS SHEAR VALUES SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

JOHNSON
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

DISCUSSION...
THE TEXAS TECH WRF AND THE ECMWF INDICATING THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES REMAINING DRY TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. UPPER RIDGE
TO BUILD IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THEN BREAKING DOWN OR
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES BY LATE THURSDAY. UPPER FLOW
THEN TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LIFTS NORTHWARD BY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT
INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO AND ALLOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT INTO THE PANHANDLES WHICH BECOMES
STATIONARY. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO. A DRYLINE SETS UP ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY
THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NORTH AND WESTWARD
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE.

AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW PROVIDES PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER THE UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW
MAY RESULT IN LOW CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLY FOG WHICH MAY LINGER INTO
MUCH OF THE MORNING LATE THIS WEEK. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DIURNAL HEATING AND MIXING CAN OCCUR WHICH SHOULD
TAKE PLACE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WILL LOWER CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE THREAT SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY FOR NOW WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE THIS WEEKEND. AS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS THE PANHANDLES TO THE EAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE
ON SATURDAY MAY RESULT IN A LATER TIMING FOR ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA ON SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW.
THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS WEEKEND WITH
THE DRYLINE HANGING BACK TO THE WEST IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND
DRYLINE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEST OF THE PANHANDLES AND AN ACTIVE
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW CONTINUING TO PREVAIL...CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR CONVECTION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 TO 20
MPH OR THE MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 15 TO 20
PERCENT.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

16/11