Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 271936
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
236 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

A band of rain showers in the west-central Texas Panhandle is making
its way southeast toward the south-central Texas Panhandle, and
current thinking is that it will continue moving through the day.
Some showers have developed back into northeastern New Mexico and
southeastern Colorado, moving southeast. RAP Mesoanalysis as of
18z suggests there is around 100-200 J/kg of MLCAPE which is
beginning to flirt with the potential for a thunderstorm, and
gusty winds would be possible. Further destabilization is possible
over the through around 4-6 PM, and if sufficient destabilization
can occur, very cold temperatures aloft (500mb temperatures
between -25C to -30C) may also support the development of small
hail. This group of rain will continue moving southeast down the
western half of the combined Panhandles through the afternoon with
a continued chance for a thunderstorm.

Southerly winds bring in low-level moisture tonight, and there is
a low-end chance for fog to develop on the caprock later tonight.
Winds turn southwesterly and become sustained at 15-25 mph which
is effective at pushing out moisture and bringing in dry air.
Elevated fire weather conditions are possible for the western and
central Texas Panhandle. Temperatures warm into the 70s across the
area due to prominent mixing, downsloping winds, and warmer 850mb
temperatures. Winds remain around 10-20 mph tomorrow night as the
steep surface pressure gradient remains in place.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

An upper-level trough will dip down off the coast of California on
Friday, and west-southwesterly winds spread from the base of the
trough to the Rockies. An embedded shortwave trough in that flow is
favored to reach the Rockies on Friday which creates a leeside
Rockie low. 15-25 mph sustained winds are favored for the west-
central Panhandles with 20-25 mph sustained winds for the western
Texas Panhandle. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible for
the western Texas Panhandle. Temperatures warm into the 70s for much
of the northern combined Panhandles, and upper-70s to mid-80s for
the southern Texas Panhandle.

The upper-level trough amplifies Saturday which amplifies the ridge
over the southern/central Plains. 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly
winds are currently favored for the far western combined Panhandles
with low relative humidity values. Elevated fire weather conditions
are possible for the western Texas Panhandle. Breezy winds continue
overnight, and poor relative humidity recovery is expected.
Additionally, with the introduction of a 30-50 kt LLJ, wind gusts up
to 30 mph is favored with some guidance suggesting periodic gusts up
to 40 mph is possible.

Sunday... the upper-level trough begins to move east and a more
robust wind field moves toward the Panhandles. This results in a
stronger surface low that develops in eastern Colorado or western
Kansas. With a steeper surface pressure gradient, 15-25 mph
sustained southwesterly winds are favored across the area, but
sustained winds around 25-35 mph are favored in the northwestern
combined Panhandles. Mid to upper-level clouds are forecast to
spread across much of the Panhandles, perhaps with exception to the
northwestern combined Panhandles. This should keep the potential for
single digit relative humidity values and higher-end gusts at bay
for much of the area. However, wind gusts up to 45 mph are still
possible in the northwestern combined Panhandles. As such, solidly
elevated fire weather conditions are favored for the western half of
the combined Panhandles, and low-end critical fire weather
conditions are possible in the northwest combined Panhandles.

Models begin to significantly diverge with respect to what happens
as the trough ejects east of the Rockies. Depending on how it
ejects, Monday may see sustained southwesterly winds around 15-25
mph but relative humidity may be too high to support elevated fire
weather concerns due to prominent cloud cover. A cold front moves
in later on Monday, but the trend has been to bring it in
quicker. Currently forecasting the cold front to move in to the
northern part of the CWA in the mid-afternoon hours. Breezy
northerly winds with partly to mostly cloudy skies can be expected
behind the front Monday night and perhaps into Tuesday. There is
a slight chance for precipitation behind the front and into
Tuesday. If the airmass turns out to be cooler than currently
anticipated, and as suggested by some guidance, a rain/snow mix or
snow may be possible.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

A chance for showers exists for Amarillo early this afternoon, and
for Dalhart slightly later. Can`t rule out a thunderstorm but
confidence is very low at this time, but will make an amendment if
confidence increases significantly. VFR conditions are expected
otherwise with winds weakening at night and becoming southwesterly
at 10-20 kts tomorrow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024

Elevated fire weather is possible from Thursday through Monday due
to low RH and breezy southwesterly winds. There is question
regarding how receptive fuels will be given recent snowfall,
especially in the northwestern combined Panhandles where up to 3
inches of snow recently fell. However, poor nighttime RH recovery is
expected Friday night for the southwestern Texas Panhandle, and
again Saturday night for the western half of the combined
Panhandles. Given that, and with windier conditions expected Sunday
and low RH values expected to develop again, low-end critical fire
weather conditions are possible on Sunday for the northwestern
combined Panhandles and perhaps the west-central Texas Panhandle.
Breezy winds may continue into Monday, but RH values are currently
favored to stay around 15-20%. A cold front comes in from the north
Monday afternoon with a quick change to northerly winds.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                30  74  47  80 /  10   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  25  72  43  80 /  10   0   0   0
Boise City OK              28  70  37  75 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  31  74  48  83 /  10   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              29  77  42  81 /  10   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  29  73  45  80 /  10   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               30  76  47  81 /  10   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 25  72  37  77 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  26  72  40  79 /  10   0   0   0
Hereford TX                29  73  43  80 /  10   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                28  71  47  80 /  10   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   30  71  47  81 /  10   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                29  73  44  79 /  10   0   0   0
Wellington TX              30  74  44  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52


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