000
FXUS64 KAMA 141754 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1254 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GUSTING ABOVE 25 KT
THROUGH 01 OR 02Z SATURDAY.  INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING AROUND KAMA.  WEAK ECHOES CURRENTLY SEEN ON KAMA
88D SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA HAVE BEEN MOVING NORTH AT AROUND 20 KT...
BUT DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY DO NOT EXPECT A DIRECT THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  WILL CONTINUE VICINITY SHOWER REMARK AT KAMA THIS
EVENING...AND WILL MONITOR CLOSELY FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL THUNDERSTORM
THREAT.  NORTHERN TERMINALS EXPECTED TO HAVE LESS OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.  SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH SCATTERED LAYER AROUND 3000 FEET EXPECTED.  SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE GUSTING INTO 25 TO 35 KNOT RANGE
AROUND 15Z SATURDAY.  VFR FORECAST CONTINUES NEXT 24 HOURS.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z KAMA TAF...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
00Z WITH ONLY HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS EXPECTED. THEN THE FOCUS TURNS TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR TSRA AND SHRA THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR TSRA AND SHRA WILL BE BETWEEN 00 AND 03Z.
HOWEVER...THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN AS TO IF THE PRECIP WILL PROPAGATE
THIS FAR NORTH. THE PRIMARY IMPACT FROM ANY TSRA SHOULD BE IFR...EVEN
LIFR CONDITIONS FROM HEAVY RA. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW CLOUDS AND BR. TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS FROM THE GFS INDICATE A DEEP
NEAR SATURATION BOUNDARY LAYER AFTER 06Z. HAVE CHOSEN TO ONLY INCLUDE
A SCT035 AT THIS TIME...AS THIS MAY BE PARTIALLY DUE TO CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK.

FOR THE 12Z KDHT AND KGUY...MUCH LESS CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL BE
ABLE TO MOVE AS FAR NORTH AS THESE TERMINALS. ONE CAVEAT IS THAT ONE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL...TTU WRF...IS DEPICTING MOUNTAIN TSRA MOVING
INTO THE PANHANDLES WELL NORTH OF THE MAIN COMPLEX EXPECTED
DOWNSTATE. THUS...WILL NEED TO WATCH IF AN ISOLATED TSRA APPROACHES
KDHT NEAR 00Z. AT THIS TIME...THINK THIS IS UNLIKELY...SO WILL NOT
MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR NOW. SIMILAR TO KAMA...TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS
SHOW THAT LOW CLOUDS AND BR MAY BE A POSSIBILITY AT KGUY AFTER
06Z...BUT THINK THIS IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.

JOHNSON

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/

DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS AROUND THE BIG BEND AND DEL RIO
AREA WILL TRACK NORTHWARD TODAY PUSHING THE UPPER RIDGE FURTHER AND
FURTHER EASTWARD. THE CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE PRECIP...SPREADING IT ACROSS
MOST OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLES BY 00Z SATURDAY. THAT MAY
BE A LITTLE TOO FAST AND WILL STICK WITH A SLOWER TIMING AS INDICATED
BY THE GFS AND NAM. LATER SHIFT CAN ADJUST...IF NECESSARY...SHOULD
THE FASTER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFY. CLOSED UPPER LOW WEAKENS INTO OPEN
WAVE AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES BY SATURDAY. CONTINUED WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER PATTERN...DESPITE
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN OVER THE PANHANDLES FROM THE WEST
OVER THE WEEKEND...WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME PERIODS SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPS EARLY
NEXT WEEK THEN A WARMING TREND AND DRY DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/08