000
FXUS64 KAMA 122032
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
332 PM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

.DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS
A CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN MEXICO. THIS LOW WILL MAKE LITTLE
PROGRESS TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND IN FACT WILL
RETROGRADE A LITTLE MONDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL SLIDE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY...LEADING TO WARMER
TEMPS AND THE CONTINUATION OF DRY WX. A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE PANHANDLES WILL SHIFT FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH THIS EVENING. HIGH-RES MODELS AND SOME OF THE NWP MODELS
INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMING NEAR THIS
TROUGH AND SLIDING SOUTHWARD DURING THE EVENING. LATEST DOPPLER
RADAR REFLECTIVITY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF A
HOOKER TO STRATFORD TO DALHART LINE. HOWEVER THESE SHOWERS
ARE STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN THEIR STRENGTH AS THEY MOVE TO THE
SOUTH...GIVEN THE DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE. SINCE COVERAGE OF ANY
STORMS WILL BE VERY ISOLATED HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
TONIGHT AND LET THE INCOMING SHIFT COVER THIS WITH SHORT TERM
FORECASTS. IF ANY STORMS DO DEVELOP THIS EVENING...EXPECT THEM TO BE
HIGH BASED...OR VIRGA SHOWERS...AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
INVERTED-V PROFILES. CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER ALTHOUGH
GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE PER SPC SWODY1. ANY STORMS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIE AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

THE UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST AND MOVE ACROSS
WEST TX TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE PLACE
OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...PROMOTING BREEZY SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN GIVEN THE
DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS AND WITH THE BULK OF THE UPPER LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM STAYING TO OUR SOUTH...HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST
GOING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY BUT ONLY
A REFLECTION IN THE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE. IN FACT THE PANHANDLES WILL REMAIN IN ITS TYPICAL POSITION
OF BEING IN BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF PRECIP WITH STORMS IN OK AND
CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTHWEST.
THE NAM/SREF DO SPREAD SOME QPF ACROSS OUR AREA...KEYING IN ON THE
CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
BUT GIVEN THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE NWP MODELS DO NOT SHOW THIS
SOLUTION WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY.

HAVE NOT MADE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO MIX EAST OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH THE
LOCATION /IE IF THIS DRYLINE WILL PUSH ALL THE WAY INTO WESTERN OK/
IS UNCERTAIN. SO THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AS CONFIDENCE IN ANY
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE EASTERN ZONES IS FAR TOO LOW TO MENTION.
RISING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPS...WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

CLK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 10 TO 15
PERCENT ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES MONDAY. DESPITE THESE LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES...20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER
15 MPH AND THEREFORE SHOULD PRECLUDE ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TX/OK PANHANDLES DUE TO BREEZY
SOUTHWEST 20 FOOT WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING ONCE
AGAIN TO BETWEEN 10 TO 15 PERCENT /RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 20
PERCENT ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES WILL PRECLUDE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THIS AREA/. NEITHER ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEYOND TUESDAY DESPITE MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING BELOW 20 PERCENT MOST DAYS SINCE 20
FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 20 MPH. THE CHANCE FOR
WETTING RAINS IS PRETTY SLIM THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                52  89  55  87  57 /  10   0   0   5  10
BEAVER OK                  45  93  56  93  58 /  10   0   0   5   5
BOISE CITY OK              47  91  56  91  55 /   0   0   0  10  10
BORGER TX                  56  93  61  91  61 /  10   0   0   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              48  91  54  92  56 /  10   0   0   5  10
CANYON TX                  51  88  54  88  57 /  10   0   0   5  10
CLARENDON TX               55  89  56  86  59 /  10   0   0   5  10
DALHART TX                 46  89  49  92  52 /   5   0   0   5  10
GUYMON OK                  51  94  57  92  56 /   5   0   0   5   5
HEREFORD TX                50  87  52  87  54 /  10   0   0   5  10
LIPSCOMB TX                51  91  57  90  58 /  10   0   0   5  10
PAMPA TX                   54  88  55  87  59 /  10   0   0   5  10
SHAMROCK TX                53  90  58  87  59 /  10   0   0   5  10
WELLINGTON TX              54  92  57  89  60 /  10   0   0   5  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/05