Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 121845
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
Issued by National Weather Service Tulsa OK
145 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

A quick moving mid level wave continues to traverse eastward
through southern Kansas this afternoon, with an associated weak
sfc pressure trough sliding southeastward through the forecast
area this afternoon causing generally light winds to shift from
west-southwesterly to more northwesterly through the afternoon.
Otherwise warm and dry conditions prevail through the afternoon
and evening hours as high temperatures soar well into the 70s
this afternoon, with some locations nearing 80 degrees across the
south.

Fire weather concerns ramp up again on Wednesday ahead of another
upper level storm system approaching from the west. Deep
southwesterly flow aloft will develop throughout the day Wednesday
as a strong longwave trough digs into the Desert Southwest. At the
same time, a strong upper level jet streak emanating from the base
of the trough will eject out over the High Plains during the day.
This will aid in the formation of a strengthening Lee cyclone and
a resulting tightening of the surface pressure gradient by early
Wednesday afternoon. Therefore, increasing southwesterly winds are
expected through the morning hours, with sustained winds of 20-30
mph and gusts of 40 mph likely across much of the Panhandle. Some
of the more aggressive guidance indicates that some gusts of
40-50mph will also be possible (20-40%) during the afternoon
across the Southern Panhandle. This combined with daytime highs
again rising into the 70s to near 80 degrees areawide under
mostly sunny skies along with min RH values dropping into the
10-15% range, fire weather concerns will be increased during the
day tomorrow. As such, a Red Flag Warning has been issued across
the CWA, so please be cautious and exercise all fire
safety/prevention measures.

A cold front will begin to approach the region by late Wednesday
afternoon, which will ease the winds somewhat across the far
northern portions of the forecast area by Wednesday evening. The
front will progress southeastward across the CWA through the
evening and overnight hours, bringing cooler temperatures, lighter
winds, and slightly better moisture to aid in fire weather
recovery overnight Wednesday. A couple light showers could also
accompany the frontal passage, mainly across the far northwest
corner of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

The aforementioned upper low will cutoff over the Desert Southwest
for much of the rest of the period, with southwesterly flow aloft
dominating the region for the next week. THe positioning will be
as such that most of the Gulf moisture will remain to the east of
the forecast area and any moisture associated with the upper
trough will generally remain west of the local region, meaning the
forecast will be fairly dry through the period. Several weak
disturbances moving through the larger scale trough could bring
some off and on showers from Thursday through the first part of
next week. Any amounts will generally be light as moisture remains
rather limited. With cooler air in place, some light snow showers
cannot be ruled out during the overnight/early morning hours,
especially across northern portions of the forecast area. But,
with limited moisture, any accumulations will be light... no more
than a tenth of an inch or two, with melting occurring during the
daylight hours. Modestly strong flow aloft through the period
will likely lead to gusty winds mixing to the surface during the
day and weakening during the nighttime hours. Temperatures should
hold pretty steady from Thursday through early next week, with
highs in the 50s to near 60 and lows mostly in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1103 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Ongoing VFR conditions will continue with breezy winds decreasing
somewhat after sunset. Winds increase tomorrow with strong gusts
likely and potential blowing dust visibility impacts primarily
just beyond this forecast period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

Breezy winds look to return Panhandles wide Wed afternoon, with
elevated to solidly critical fire weather conditions expected for
much of the area. Winds aloft are progged to gradually increase
and help sustain southwest winds at 20-30 mph, with gusts reaching
upwards of 40 to 45 mph. Daytime highs will be comparable to
Tuesday in the 70s to low 80s, with relative humidity values
dropping as low as 10-15%. RFTI values are expected to max out
around 4 to 5 in the south, with some isolated 6s, and 1 to 3 in
the north during the afternoon. Despite strongest winds staying
south, the OK Panhandle should still see at least some elevated
to near critical fire weather conditions. A cold front will move
into the area by Wednesday evening, bringing lighter winds,
slightly better moisture, and cooler temperatures to aid in fire
weather recovery during the overnight hours into Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                45  74  40  65 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  41  77  40  64 /   0   0  10   0
Boise City OK              40  68  35  52 /   0  20  20  30
Borger TX                  45  78  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              43  74  38  65 /   0   0  10   0
Canyon TX                  43  74  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               45  77  44  70 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 38  70  33  58 /   0  10  10  10
Guymon OK                  40  73  37  60 /   0  10  10  10
Hereford TX                43  73  37  67 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                42  78  41  68 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   46  76  41  67 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                43  80  44  72 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              43  80  44  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ001>020-
     317.

OK...Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ001>003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99


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