Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 260343 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1043 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH WITH A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT.
THINK THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AT THE DHT AND GUY TAF
SITES...SO HAVE ENTERED A TEMPO GROUP THERE. HAVE LEFT THUNDERSTORMS
OUT OF AMA SINCE THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED THERE.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GUST UP INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. MORE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
NEAR THE AMA TAF SITE AFTER 18Z ON FRIDAY...BUT HAVE NOT ENTERED ANY
INTO THIS FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015/

AVIATION...

00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT ALL SITES. STORMS IN THE
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL REACH THE VICINITY OF KGUY AROUND
0030Z AND STORMS IN NEW MEXICO WILL REACH KDHT AROUND 01Z. THESE
STORMS ARE MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ALL
THREE TAF SITES. KDHT WILL SEE THE WINDS COME OUT OF THE NORTH AROUND
12Z...FOLLOWED BY KGUY AT 14Z AND KAMA AT 16Z DUE TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. KDHT MAY HAVE VISIBILITIES LOWERED DUE TO PRECIP IF THE
STORMS ACTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE SITE BUT SINCE CONFIDENCE WAS LOW AT
THIS TIME...ONLY WENT WITH VCTS. KGUY MAY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS
STARTING AROUND 14Z AS A STRATUS DECK MAY FORM OVER THE
AREA...OTHERWISE...SITES REMAIN VFR.

BEAT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW ADVERTISED BY MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS SEVERAL DAYS AGO HAS NOW BEGUN. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL ANCHOR ITSELF OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WHILE A DECENT ERN US
TROF DEVELOPS. THIS PLACES TX AND OK PNHDLS IN NW TO NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH IS USUALLY FAVORABLE FOR STEERING TSTMS
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM AND SERN CO INTO PARTS OF OUR AREA.
IN ADDITION...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE THRU THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE
COUPLED WITH THE ABOVE PROGGED SCENARIO...SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS ARE
WARRANTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
SLGT CHC POPS THEN MAINLY CONFINED TO WRN SECTIONS SATURDAY THRU
SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER IS THEN ANTICIPATED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE N TO NE...WHICH MAY KEEP
STORMS CLOSER TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM AND SERN CO AS OPPOSED
TO MOVING INTO OUR FCST AREA.

FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MOST MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE SOME. THIS TRANSLATES TO OUR
UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD...WITH POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS TO MOVE SEWD AGAIN INTO OUR AREA
FROM SERN CO AND NERN NM. HAVE INTRODUCED SLGT CHC POPS FOR NWRN
ZONES WED...AND AREA WIDE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY IMPINGE ON THE FCST AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/16




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