Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 290433 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1133 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE REST OF
THE NIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY FORM NEAR THE AMA TAF SITE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THEM IN THIS
FORECAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND AROUND THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING...SO HAVE INSERTED A TEMPO GROUP AT ALL SITES. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD GET STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS CLOSE TO 40 KNOTS. BELIEVE
THAT THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS MAY SPREAD OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...BUT SKIES WILL
REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY 10 KNOTS
OR BELOW FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
CURRENT RADAR REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY INDICATES THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TX
PANHANDLE...ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY NEARBY. CURRENT SPC MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS INDICATES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE IN THIS AREA...DUE
IN PART OF STRONG DIURNAL HEATING WEST OF A MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
BAND. UPPER TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN CO AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MID LEVEL DRY AIR OVERSPREADING MUCH OF
THE AREA. WHILE THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR DEW POINTS AT THE SURFACE TO
DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S...GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. WHILE SOME CONVECTION WAS DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHEASTERN NM WHERE IT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES
BY EARLY EVENING...THE EASTERN PANHANDLES REMAIN THE FAVORED LOCATION
FOR STORMS THIS EVENING. HIGHER INSTABILITY VALUES ALONG WITH AROUND
30-40 KTS OF SHEAR HAS LED TO SOME STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE AND EXPECT
THIS TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING BEFORE THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING
LIMITS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. STRONG WINDS AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
HALF DOLLARS ARE POSSIBLE BUT HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION SLOW
STORM MOTIONS AND POSSIBLE TRAINING STORMS ALSO HEIGHTEN THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT.

THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
TONIGHT WHILE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY HANGS UP NEAR THE SOUTHERN TX
PANHANDLE. FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL BE LIMITED
GIVEN THE FORECAST POSITION OF THIS SYSTEM SO THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT...ANY WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIPPLING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW...AND ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
TONIGHTS CONVECTION WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DECREASE IN PWATS BUT
MOISTURE LEVELS WILL STILL REMAIN HIGH TO SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL
UNDER ANY OF THE STRONGER STORMS. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON
THE CLOUD COVER AND THE AMOUNT OF DIURNAL HEATING AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODEST INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR.

LONG TERM...
THE LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/ WILL GENERALLY BE
CHARACTERIZED BY HOT AND DRY WX THROUGH THE PERIOD. ZONAL FLOW AHEAD
OF AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL INDUCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...PROMOTING BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH TEMPS INCREASING
BACK INTO THE 90S OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NORTH OF THE AREA...AND
NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WX ACROSS THE AREA. BROAD
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL EXPAND WESTWARD...OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD CONFINE ANY CONVECTION
NORTH OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS GOING INTO NEXT WEEK LOOK TO STAY IN
THE 90S.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/11




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