Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 120529
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1229 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

Southerly winds will likely stay up in the 20 to 30 mph range with
higher gusts in the eastern Oklahoma Panhandle and the northeast
Texas Panhandle as an open upper air disturbance moves across
northern areas of the CWA.  Winds may also stay up somewhat
elsewhere, but not quite as strong.

Winds are expected to be a little lighter on Tuesday as compared to
today as a lee-side surface low takes all day to re-develop in
southeast Colorado/northeast New Mexico. Highs on Tuesday may crack
the 80 degree mark in the far southeast Texas Panhandle due to the
better downslope component.

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

Some fire weather conditions are expected to return to the TX
Panhandle Wed afternoon ahead of a cold front. A mid to upper
level low pressure system is progged to bring some cooler
temperatures heading into the weekend starting with a cold front
Wed night into Thu. During the latter part of the week some
precipitation may also be in store for the combined Panhandles
between Wed night and Sat. However, confidence is low as the
timing and amounts of potential precip are in question as models
are not agreeing on the progression/track of this upcoming system
at this time.

The next upper level system is currently hanging out over the Gulf
of Alaska. This system is expected to move SE into ID by Wed
morning, then it will dig straight south developing a closed H5
low over AZ by Thu morning. At least per the GFS. The EC solution
will have it further west over more of the southern tip of NV and
southern CA. As the trough starts digging Wed, winds aloft around
H5 will be increasing to 50 to 55 kts over the TX Panhandle and
eastern half of the OK Panhandle. H7 winds should be increasing to
30 to 40 kts as well, along with the development of a leeside low
over portions of the FA and SE CO/NE NM. By Wed afternoon WSW
surface are progged to be blowing around 20 to 30 mph with gusts
as high as 35 to potentially 45 mph. Daytime highs will once again
be in the 70s for much of the area leading to low RH values in
the 10-15% range. This combination will most likely lead to
critical fire weather conditions in the western TX Panhandle and
elevated fire weather conditions elsewhere. An initial wind shift
to the north with the upcoming front may occur as early as Wed
night. Although the strongest CAA and highest winds may occur
later on Thu during the day.

With cold fronts generally moving through the Panhandles quicker
than what guidance lets on to, have chosen to lean towards NBM10
values for the daytime highs on Thu. Have also leaned towards
NBM90 winds post front during the afternoon on Thu. With these
exceptions have stayed with NBM figures for the rest of the
extend forecast period. With that said, the NBM is giving slight
chance to chance PoPs as early as Thu for the far northwest to far
western combined Panhandles where snow may mix in with rain. It
is not until Friday when much of the southwestern half of the FA
gets PoPs upwards of 50. Confidence is low for exact timing and
amounts of precip at this time. Daytime temperatures shall be
cooler, in the 50s, through the weekend.

36

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

VFR conditions are on tap for the 06z TAF period with winds out of
the south-southwest at 10-20 kts. Still looking at some high
clouds in the area but nothing of impact.

Harrel

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible
across the southwest and south-central Texas Panhandle Tuesday.
The lowest relative humidity will be down close to 10 percent, but
there is a question on how high the winds can get.

Breezy and slightly gusty winds may return to the combined
Panhandles Wed afternoon with the development of another leeside
low develops over SE CO/NE NM and the northwestern Panhandles.
Winds aloft are progged to gradually increase and help with gust
reaching upwards of 40 mph, potentially 45 mph. Daytime highs are
expected to rise into the 70s once again with RH values plummeting
to 10-15%. The strongest of these winds are expected to be
present in the western TX Panhandle into NM. The western two
stacks of the TX Panhandle have the highest likelihood of seeing
critical fire weather conditions with the eastern TX being at
least in elevated conditions. RFTI values are expected to max out
around 4 to 5 in the west, with maybe some isolated 6s, and 2 to 3
in the east during the afternoon on Wed. The OK Panhandle may see
some elevated fire weather conditions, as strongest winds look to
remain south of the OK Panhandle at this time.

36

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                76  45  74  40 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  76  40  76  39 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              70  39  69  34 /   0   0  10  20
Borger TX                  79  45  78  41 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              77  41  75  37 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  76  42  75  39 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               79  45  78  44 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 73  37  71  34 /   0   0   0  10
Guymon OK                  74  39  74  36 /   0   0   0  10
Hereford TX                76  42  74  38 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                78  43  78  40 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   78  46  77  40 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                80  44  80  43 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              81  43  80  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from this afternoon through this evening for
     TXZ011>013-016>018-317.

OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...38


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