Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 082157
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
357 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN FOR MOST OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL FEATURE
A STRONG RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND A DEEP
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP THE PANHANDLES BENEATH
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH ANY WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW
ONLY BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES. A REX BLOCK PATTERN ALONG THE WEST COAST WAS NOTED IN
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS WILL HELP TO ENSURE
ONLY SLOW CHANGES TO THE PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SOME BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK...BUT WEATHER
IMPACTS WILL BE THE SAME FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED MOST DAYS THIS
WEEK AS COLDER AIR REMAINS LOCKED UP IN THE MIDWEST. AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY EDGE INTO THE PANHANDLES AND KNOCK TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CLOSER
TO NORMAL. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ONE THING TO NOTE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THAT I UNDERCUT MOST
DEW POINT GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK TO MATCH RECENT TRENDS ON
DRIER DAYS. THIS SHOULD GET AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CLOSER
TO WHAT WE HAVE BEEN OBSERVING...IN ORDER TO HELP PLAN FOR ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS.

NF

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON. THEN THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS THE REST OF THIS WEEK. THE LOWEST
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
WEDNESDAY /1O TO 15 PERCENT/...BUT WINDS MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH
FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS. WIND SPEEDS IN GENERAL WILL BE THE ELEMENT
TO WATCH EACH DAY AS WE CONSIDER ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

NF

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                30  64  32  73  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  26  60  28  71  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              28  62  29  73  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
BORGER TX                  33  64  36  74  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              27  66  28  75  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
CANYON TX                  28  64  30  74  33 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLARENDON TX               32  66  34  74  38 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 27  63  25  73  28 /   0   0   0   0   0
GUYMON OK                  28  63  28  73  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
HEREFORD TX                28  65  30  74  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
LIPSCOMB TX                29  61  29  72  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   31  61  33  71  34 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                31  65  31  73  36 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              31  68  33  73  37 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...WHEELER.

OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/6


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