Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
000
FXUS64 KAMA 120826
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
326 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
Another day, another trough passage in store with not much to
show for it. Current 07z satellite and mesoanalysis show an upper
wave crossing the Rockies this evening, slated to continue
traversing eastward through the day. Weak troughing at the sfc
will gradually occur, resulting in much lighter winds today
compared to yesterday (10-20 mph out of the west-southwest).
Stronger daytime heating is expected, allowing temps to increase
towards the mid to upper 70s, and even low 80s in the southeast.
Things ramp up on Wednesday ahead of our next main upper level
system, set to lollygag around west of the Rockies through the
end of the week. Preceding this feature will be an increasingly
favorable synoptic setup for higher winds as a strengthening upper
level jet streak positions itself over the Panhandles. If you
guessed that leads to enhanced leeside cyclogenesis at the sfc,
you`d be right! The resulting pressure gradient is set to quickly
tighten through the afternoon hours, with 30-40kt winds right off
the deck also ready to slide on down to the sfc. This should
equate to sustained southwest winds of 20-30 mph across most of
the area, with gusts up to 40 mph. More aggressive guidance such
as the HRRR and NAM even suggest a gust or two closer to 45-50
mph wouldn`t be entirely out of the question (10-40% probability
in the southern Panhandle). This higher wind potential likely
hinges on the quality of mid-level winds as well as the depth of
mixing by Wed afternoon, which should be fairly optimal given
minimal cloud cover in the forecast. It`s also worth noting that
latest model trends hold an advancing cold front further north
into Kansas through the day, which would allow a longer window to
achieve peak wind potential. While all of this is going on,
daytime highs will be comparable to Tuesday in the 70s to low 80s,
with relative humidity values dropping as low as 10-15%. Needless
to say, Wednesday would be a terrible day to have to deal with
more fire malarkey. So please use common sense and be cautious by
exercising as much fire safety/prevention as possible.
Wednesday evening and overnight, the aforementioned front should
come marching south through the Panhandles. With it comes slightly
improved moisture, lighter winds, and cooler temperatures by
Thursday morning. We`ll also have to keep an eye on precipitation
potential in the far northwest Panhandles (20-40% POPs), where
lift and moisture may be ample enough to squeeze out some light
showers.
Harrel
&&
.LONG TERM ...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
Thursday will see a low cut off across the desert SW with a ridge
building over the SE conus. This pattern will see gulf moisture
move east of the panhandles and the moisture associated with the
cut off low stay mostly to the west of the panhandles. In effect
the panhandles will be a relatively dry hole in a doughnut of
moisture that will surrounding it. A limited amount of moisture
is still likely to break off the surrounding wet ring and pass
across the panhandles which will lead to on and off light showers
Thursday through next week. As the moisture will be low the
chance for showers and resulting accumulation will also be low.
With cooler air remaining entrenched across the panhandles
Thursday through next week the showers may exhibit a diurnal
trend of rain for most of the day and snow for the early to mid
morning when it is coldest. If snow does indeed fall accumulations
are likely not to amount to more than a dusting of a tenth or two.
Temperatures for Thursday into early next week will likely be
stable with highs remaining in the 50s and overnight lows just
below to a little above freezing. The pattern the panhandles
finds itself stuck in will likely lead to weakly gusty winds
during the daytime and weak winds overnight.
SH
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024
VFR conditions are on tap for the 06z TAF period with winds out of
the south-southwest at 10-20 kts. Still looking at some high
clouds in the area but nothing of impact.
Harrel
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024
Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible across the
southwest and south-central Texas Panhandle this afternoon where
minimum relative humidity will be around 10 percent. Despite low
RH values, winds will be relatively weak, only around 10-20 mph.
Breezy winds look to return Panhandles wide Wed afternoon, with
elevated to solidly critical fire weather conditions expected for
much of the area. Winds aloft are progged to gradually increase
and help sustain southwest winds at 20-30 mph, with gusts reaching
upwards of 40 to 45 mph. Daytime highs will be comparable to
Tuesday in the 70s to low 80s, with relative humidity values
dropping as low as 10-15%. RFTI values are expected to max out
around 4 to 5 in the south, with some isolated 6s, and 1 to 3 in
the north during the afternoon. Despite strongest winds staying
south, the OK Panhandle should still see at least some elevated
to near critical fire weather conditions.
Harrel
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX 78 45 75 39 / 0 0 0 0
Beaver OK 77 42 77 37 / 0 0 0 10
Boise City OK 72 40 68 34 / 0 0 10 20
Borger TX 80 46 79 40 / 0 0 0 0
Boys Ranch TX 78 43 75 37 / 0 0 0 10
Canyon TX 78 44 75 38 / 0 0 0 0
Clarendon TX 81 45 79 42 / 0 0 0 0
Dalhart TX 74 39 72 34 / 0 0 0 10
Guymon OK 75 39 74 36 / 0 0 0 10
Hereford TX 78 43 74 37 / 0 0 0 0
Lipscomb TX 79 43 79 40 / 0 0 0 0
Pampa TX 78 46 77 40 / 0 0 0 0
Shamrock TX 81 44 81 43 / 0 0 0 0
Wellington TX 83 43 81 44 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for TXZ001>020-317.
OK...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for OKZ001>003.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...38