Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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647
FXUS64 KAMA 221139
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
639 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS...
VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours with winds in
the 10-15kt range. Scattered to broken mid level clouds expected
to develop after 18z and persist through 06z. All TAF sites can
expect VCSH with a 30 percent chance of -TSRA. 6 hour PROB30
groups have been added as early as 21z to as late as 06z, at each
TAF site to account for the storm potential. While confidence is
not high, MVFR conditions will be possible if storms move over the
TAF sites. However, storms should be slow moving in nature and
isolated to scattered across the Panhandles. So, they could be hit
and miss showers. Moderate to heavy rain is expected with storms
that move over TAF sites.

Weber

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 239 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge which has kept us fairly warm and dry over the past
couple of days will be on the move today. The ridge will retrograde
towards the Four Corners Region which will open the Panhandles up
to the influence of shortwaves within the upper flow for the next
couple of days. We could see a few isolated storms develop across
the area as early as midday with greater coverage across the
western zones overnight. Steering flow will be fairly weak which
will result in storm motions generally less than 15kt. Instability
will also be on the low side (around 500 J/kg) during the day,
but will be on the rise as we go into the overnight hours (around
1000 J/kg). Precipitable water values are also expected to be
around 1.2 inches which is between the 75th and 90th percentile
for late July. All of these factors will couple together to signal
the potential of moderate to heavy rainfall.

Our precip chances expand to area wide on Sunday into Monday morning
as a series of shortwaves round the periphery of the upper ridge.
Our PWATs will slightly increase to around 1.3 inches which is much
closer to the 90th percentile while steering flow remains weak. This
will perpetuate the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall
potential. Localized flooding or flash flooding, particularly
flood prone areas, are possible with storms Sunday and Sunday
night. Another difference from Saturday to Sunday will be the
increased instability across the northern zones. The NAM is the
most generous with instability with +3000 J/kg of SBCAPE across
the far northeastern Oklahoma Panhandle while the GFS/ECMWF are
much lower around 1000-1500 J/kg. Deep layer shear will continue
to be meager so storms which may increase into the strong criteria
(severe if the NAM verifies) would primary present a wind/hail
threat. Chances will diminish as we move through the day on
Monday as the upper ridge axis moves back over the Panhandles.

Our brief reprieve of rain chances Tuesday night and Wednesday day
will come to an end as the upper ridge retrogrades back over the
Four Corners Wednesday night. This will open up the western
Panhandles to mountain convection each day through Friday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                98  69  92  68  91 /  20  20  40  40  20
Beaver OK                 104  72  95  69  95 /  10  20  40  30  30
Boise City OK              96  65  87  64  91 /  20  30  50  50  20
Borger TX                 103  72  95  71  95 /  20  20  40  40  20
Boys Ranch TX             100  69  93  68  94 /  20  20  40  40  20
Canyon TX                  97  69  91  67  91 /  20  20  40  40  20
Clarendon TX               99  71  94  70  94 /  10  20  40  30  30
Dalhart TX                 99  66  91  64  92 /  20  30  40  40  20
Guymon OK                 102  69  92  67  95 /  20  20  40  40  20
Hereford TX                97  69  91  66  91 /  20  20  40  30  20
Lipscomb TX               103  72  96  70  95 /  10  20  30  30  30
Pampa TX                  100  70  94  69  93 /  10  20  40  40  30
Shamrock TX               102  73  97  72  96 /  10  10  30  40  40
Wellington TX             103  73  98  72  97 /  10  10  30  40  30

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89/14



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