Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 250326 CCA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1026 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

AN UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
REMAINING OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...ANY CONVECTION
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WILL BE LIMITED AND LACK OF CONFIDENCE AT ANY
OF THE TAF SITES PRECLUDES FROM ISSUING IN THE 06Z TAF FORECAST
PACKAGE. LACK OF CONFIDENCE ALSO IN LOW CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY AND WILL REMOVE MENTION FROM LATEST TAF FORECAST AT THE THREE
TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. TYPICAL
DIURNAL VARIATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION WITH MAINLY SOUTHEAST WINDS 10
KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z TO 14Z TUESDAY...THEN VEERING AROUND
TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS...AND THEN BACKING AGAIN TO
THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

UPPER HIGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TONIGHT WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES TUESDAY. A DRIER NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW WILL LIMIT
CONVECTION THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY WITH NO CONVECTION EXPECTED AT ANY
OF THE THREE TAF SITES. LOW CLOUDINESS COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP LATE
THIS EVENING BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z TUESDAY MAINLY AFFECTING THE
AMARILLO TAF SITE UNTIL AROUND 08Z TO 10Z TUESDAY. WILL INTRODUCE A
TEMPO GROUP FOR POSSIBLE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY. DIURNAL
FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION WITH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
15 KNOTS AFTER 12Z TUESDAY AND WINDS BACKING TONIGHT AFTER 00Z
TUESDAY TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS OR SO.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. A VERY WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS IN PLACE
LOCALLY BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW FOR AUGUST
CENTERED NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WERE SEEN ROUNDING THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS...BUT LARGER-SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS HOLDING CONVECTION AT
BAY IN MOST LOCATIONS. A BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND WEAK RADAR
ECHOES/PERHAPS A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO LINGER FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL TX
PANHANDLE EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO OK WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAK H85-H7
CONVERGENCE. THESE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...BUT INSTABILITY IS VERY WEAK IN THIS AREA AND ANY RAIN THAT
REACHES THE GROUND WILL BE VERY LIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TONIGHT. THINK CONVECTION CURRENTLY FORMING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NM/SOUTHERN CO WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT INTO
THE NORTHWEST PANHANDLES. STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK /AOB 10 KTS/ AND
RADAR TRENDS THUS FAR SHOW CONVECTION STAYING PINNED PRETTY CLOSE TO
THE HIGHER PEAKS. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...A WEAK
/20-25 KT/ SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ WILL DEVELOP...PRODUCING SOME WEAK
LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT/THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES. HOWEVER THE MAGNITUDE OF LIFT APPEARS INSUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE ANY PRECIP IN THE PANHANDLES...BUT WILL LIKELY BRING
INCREASING MID AND POSSIBLY LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST DURING THIS TIME...ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. CAN/T TOTALLY
RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM MAINLY TUESDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
ROTATES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...BUT CHANCES APPEAR
MINIMAL. A SUBTLE RISE IN HEIGHTS AND CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL WAA ABOARD
SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 90S BY WEDNESDAY.

A STRONGER MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TOP THE RIDGE...MOVING
ACROSS WY INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...ON THURSDAY. THIS WAVE
WILL KNOCK DOWN THE RIDGE MOMENTARILY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER
INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

ANY POST-FRONTAL COOLING FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL...WITH WARM
AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THEN RETURNING OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKIES AND
PLAINS DOWNSTREAM OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PAC NW.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/10


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